Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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The 18Z GFS would be the best case scenario for both storms, right now it has no support so I'd lean toss.
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It would be from WAA front end snow due to the high to the north. Either way I don't expect much of anything but that would be what would produce snow.
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Admittedly I can get skewed by recent model bias but I’d be pretty shocked if nyc metro saw 1-2 inches on Wed at this point.
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The pattern after this week looks worse than this week
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Yea if 0.1 is considered measurable I think theres a decent chance.
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Yes that is going to be the key, does it come in thumpy or disorganized. The models probably won't finetune that detail until inside of 3 days.
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The storm is so awful i'm rooting for the record, would be more interesting than 0.10 washed away by rain. If it was like an inch it would be worth it.
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Let alone the fact every model has NYC at around 35-36 at the start of the storm, thats not a signal for accumulating snow midday. Depends also if it comes in strung out and messy or like a wall, like a wall would provide some evaporational cooling.
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NYC is a lost cause, I think you MIGHT get an inch from the two storms combined in sloatsburg,.
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Might actually have a better chance of a flip to snow on the backend of storm 1 in say Westchester and Rockland than any meaningful frozen precip from storm 2.
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The models not trending in the right direction for Wednesday. I wouldn't be surprised if there is no accumulation south of the Tappan Zee.
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Exactly where we'd want it 288 hours out. Now the question is does it end up not happening, as a coastal snowstorm, or a great lakes cutter.
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Need a late development with a secondary to change the outcome radically and even then it would mainly only save places to our north.
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The Wed storm already is pretty much a cutter with some frozen precip at the start. The Monday storm is actually more favorable for CNE/NNE imo as there is stronger secondary development.
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The strength and placement of the high to the north is the only variable here that could make the start more interesting but I’d lean toward the scenario you described above.
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I agree, unless the models show temps below 35 I can’t really take the clown maps seriously at all.
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How much is needed to be considered measurable? I’m partly confused about this whole 0.0 thing because parts of the city saw a tiny bit of snow in mid December.
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The pattern stays active through early February and it's a little cooler so probably thats our best chance although this winter everything that can go wrong seems to go wrong.
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Only for a few days though.
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Yea probably honestly it's gonna end up all rain. On to the hour 240 storm, at least the pattern is staying active although I'm sure more rain.
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The 12Z Euro keeps the low south of Michigan and NYC starts snow on Wed. Can't believe we are tracking a storm that will be at most an inch of slop to rain but thats winter 2022-2023.
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If the low goes through Michigan and the high retreats it won't happen, need that high to stand strong.
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I'm close to saying snowflakes falling north of I84 is almost a lock for next week but don't want to bite on that one yet. Baby steps.
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It will also rain sometime in the next 7 days.
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I think that’s mainly further north once you get to latitude of the Catskills.
