Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Yes this, additionally the overrunning comes in late morning and would hold down temps for a while if we were snowing. If we miss it the temp will probably be close to 40 by the time precip arrives after all full day of warming.
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I'm sure it's happened but to be honest I can't remember any. Usually these storms only work out for front end snow when temps start in the 20s, otherwise it's an hour or two of non accumulating junk and then rain.
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18Z RGEM now shows a tiny bit of snow for Wed in NYC, the 0.2 inches it is showing would save the record.
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RGEM seems superior to every model lately.
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Still mostly rain with occasional flakes mixed in. Wed looks terrible now too, pretty numb to it at this point.
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I was feeling a little hopeful about today when it started mixing with snow by 10 am but now I'm seeing it's complete junk, on and off light rain/snow mix. Precip rates are putrid.
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Agree the cmc is out to lunch imo, the nam probably is too.
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At least the NE forum gets some snow lol.
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The record may get saved today, forget Wednesday for now lol.
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The colder models were right about snow to the coast today. It’s much easier to get snow in the air though than onto the ground.
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RGEM has no precip into NYC until 7 pm Wed. I’d be surprised if that happens
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Better than drip drip imo.
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It unfortunately doesn't have any other model support.
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I actually remember that storm, that seemed way colder than this one though as you said. I was actually in New Paltz at that time and it went from single digits with snow to 20s and sleet but no rain. I think the city went from like the teens to the 40s.
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Started as a rain/sleet mix lower Westchester by the Bronx border, quickly changed to all rain.
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Snowing in Buffalo during the bills game, what else is new, must be nice for snow weenies to live in Buffalo.
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NAM still showing snow for NYC/LI tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if there are some backend flakes but there won't be accumulation.
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This seems more like a regular cutter to me than an SWFE. I have a hard time seeing PA/NW NJ or the MId Hudson Valley seeing 6-10 inches. Maybe Albany area to Northern NE could get those amounts but this storm should be bringing a lot of mid level warming with a sub 1000 low headed toward the lakes and the transfer to a secondary seems to take place pretty late.
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I wouldn't be that surprised if the NYC area and North of I84 got similar snow amounts though because it will depend on where the frontogensis is ahead of the mid level warming and where/if that dumping band sets up. Whatever falls will definitely have a better chance of sticking around north of I84. Thats not me predicting big snow for NYC area, I don't see anyone seeing more than 1-3 inches in this subforum in this setup due to the mid level warming.
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The giants still had a great season, unfortunately some of the hype takes away from that. They were never in the Eagles class this year.
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It does feel that way but should we not be excited? This might be the first and maybe only accumulating snow we see all winter.
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Even if it snows they probably won't measure it properly as the rain will wash it away within an hour. I think at least 50% CPK sees at least 0.1 on Wed.
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GFS and Ukie are kind of similar. CMC has basically nothing.
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12z Euro looks snowy on Wed around midday but I’m sure will continue to flip-flop.
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The model flip flopping is annoying but I think Wed comes down to high placement, how intense precip is when it starts and how strong the cutter is.
