Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Now we have 3 waves to track but am getting tired of focusing on stuff so far out so right now just focused on wave 1 which looks decent on most models for at least a few inches but of course could change because of lack of cold air.
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Two storm total CMC (Sorry if too many maps but people say they like visuals) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030712&fh=168&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gdps
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Storm 2 snow totals (CMC) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Interior still snowing
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Storm 2: GFS totally surpressed CMC looks like will be a hit Verbatim CMC is fairly weak and tracks inside the BM, snow to rain coast, snow inland.
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That blocking really means business, the storm tracks SE once it gets offshore.
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CMC colder and flatter than GFS (Storm 1) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Snowfall amounts meh for coast, could be better if dynamics get involved but storm 2 is a way better setup for the coast. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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GFS still very focused on storm 1 for Saturday https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Rained in Boston and Maine, 3+ feet in HV and Catskills. Truly fascinating storm. This one probably won’t be that extreme but does have big potential.
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Yea sleet is usually a great starting precip type for marginal temp storms.
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Yea you were probably far enough west to get a good backend thump. I think parts of eastern LI were mainly rain with 1-3 inches while CPK was like 15+ inches. I really think it’s too far out to know what this storm is going to do.
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Ok wondering if I got more than I think then because there was almost nothing outside at 8 am but maybe some of it already had melted.
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I think nws always starts conservative and thinks climo first. Even 2/27-2/28 they started off with nothing for the city. I think you kind of have to forecast climo first unless the evidence becomes too strong otherwise and thus far the models are showing far from strong support in any direction. Anyway just my take on it.
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Rain. Has a 2010 snowicane and look to it with the cutoff but only one possible outcome many hours out.
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Agree wave 2 is the one I think with KU potential.
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Let’s let the next week or so play out before writing off winter. There’s massive potential especially storm 2 but could also be whiffs. I agree after March 15 the odds of significant snow especially NYC and south drop significantly.
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CPK bad at measuring but in this case likely too warm inside the city for 0.6
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Four days out. If it’s light nonsense it will be rain though.
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Barely anything here.
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Hate to say it but I think RGEM will win this again. All models cut back at 0Z and the temps seem iffy where there is precip.
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I think the fact the models are so all over the place and change run to run makes it hard to get too excited yet. Certainly there is big potential in the next week or so but hard to have high confidence in anything right now.
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This would be the first major fail of the RGEM this winter that I can think of if the above happens.
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The second one looks like it has KU potential if it comes west. Looking at both GFS/Euro Eastern NE is blasted.
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Come 100 miles west and it would be boom, we really are dependent on dynamic cooling https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030618&fh=207&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
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OP GFS still amped and warm for the coast with storm 1. I lean toss given lack of support from other models and ensembles.
