Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Agree the Ukie leans flat, the cmc is flat, the euro is a HECS and euro ensembles lean flat. GFS is most likely wrong.
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Yea I’m not interested in this unless the RGEM comes on board especially because it’s solution makes sense for clippers.
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That’s ok. Would rather it be less amped til his far out.
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We haven’t had a clipper in a while. The question with clippers is will the moisture make it to the coast?
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Still hard to believe that CPK received only 0.9 after midnight while parts of the Bronx got 3+ from that second batch. I'm still skeptical of the numbers being that low at CPK but I guess it's possible.
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Sort of deceptive then but that is funny.
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Similar to CMC the secondary develops too late, not a terrible look but as others have stated Miller B's are usually tough for us. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030412&fh=186&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full
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Weak and flat is what you want to see at hour 168, not amped. However the Ukie is a terrible model lately.
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Way too far out still to say it's going anyway IMO. The ensembles look good and that's what matters more than OP runs at this point.
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I think that comes into play more so in April.
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Secondary on CMC but too weak/late unless you live in Boston. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030412&fh=174&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030412&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
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Baby steps on gfs at the surface the low went from Iowa/Minnesota border to Chicago. I still think at best we are looking at a miller B scenario.
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I wouldn't have high confidence on a look like that working out but sure it's possible.
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Looking at thruway cameras it looks like the cutoff between basically nothing and a snow event was around New Paltz/Kingston.
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It did cut to northern Ohio I think but then transferred to a Miller B hugging LI.
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And it was wrong about the storm before. Recency bias. Also the other models caved to gfs with the past storm by hour 120 so I don’t consider it a huge deal.
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I agree with 0z/12z. That’s also how to pick up on true trends and not small run to run waffles. I’m also trying to focus more on certain models and find it’s sorta helpful. Outside of 84 hours it’s CMC/Euro. I’ll look at gfs or ukmet for additional support but if CMC/Euro not on board I’m not interested. Inside of 84 hours I start with RGEM and look for others for support.
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The 0Z Euro looked quite good but obviously need to see some consistency.
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Cmc looks more Iike my thinking for next weekend than the gfs. Still may not cut it as miller B’s usually are not great for SW of NE.
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It came in too disjointed here. If it was a wall maybe woulda have been more pingling but has basically just been light rain mixed with some sleet briefly.
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Sleet/rain mix.
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Sure I could see pellets down to the northern parts of the Bronx tonight. Wouldn't expect any accumulation.
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Honestly that's what I'm thinking this will end up but whether the secondary ends up west of NYC or over the Atlantic I don't know.
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What about the Euro ensemble?
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Agree but theres a big difference between the 6-7 day range vs 4-5. If most of the models still show a cutter by 0Z tomorrow I'd agree its over.
