Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Looks like maybe light snow Tuesday there (although it's just the long range NAM). The storm on 2/23 also starting to look potentially icing in the I84 corridor.
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I mean in this winter I would take 5 inches and run with it.
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It moves north and gives some snow to us on the next frame but agree with Snowman19 on this that this will likely change anyway.
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Growing confidence in chance of >1 inch snow on 2/25 due to initial airmass in place. However looks like good chance it's followed by rain.
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Yes this winter you just predict no snow and anyone would be right, it's been the easiest winter to forecast in a long time.
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The 12Z Euro and 12Z CMC showed it too. Obviously I don't take models this far out too seriously but it's not like it's impossible it can ever snow.
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18Z GFS has snow for the next Sat, at least the models are consistent........
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Sleeting now, for this winter that's exciting.
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Yea I was thinking this. Absolutely nothing has gone right this winter.
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12Z Euro now showing ice for the interior on Wed but it's the coldest model currently. It seems to cut off the warm surge and develop a secondary. GFS in the 60s for everyone so obviously some disagreement here.
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Agree this is real snow verbatim with these temps obviously this could still change a lot. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023021712&fh=198&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023021712&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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12Z Euro still has snow for next Saturday.
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Being warm and humid in February is getting ridiculous, I'm all for a cool spring.
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Yea we've seen this all winter, models show front end snow, then northern stream gets stronger and stronger and ends up all rain. You also need actual cold air to get good front end snow opportunities, the boundary layer is always going to warm fast near the coast in these situations so without an artic airmass it's usually doomed.
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If it snowed even 1/3 as much as it snows on the long term GFS we'd probably be above average snowfall by now. With that said I do think March could be a little more interesting but then theres a part of me that says we've seen this tease so many times in the long term medium range.
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0Z RGEM has ice Sunday night for NW NJ and parts of the HV. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023021000&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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At this point I'm rooting for it to stay south and avoid rain but I could see up around I84 where you'd want a north trend. The 12z CMC isn't actually that far off from probably being a little interesting north of NYC/SNE if it bombed out a bit sooner. The air mass is pretty horrendous though even for places North and West.
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Maybe inland, I don’t see how the coast can get snow in this setup without drastic changes in the setup.
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Really bad timing with the storm coming up the coast just as the cold air retreats, even 12 hours earlier and it could be a different story but this is winter 2023.
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Depends on track/strength, it's not as simple as lack of cold air since DC gets snow on this run but definitely will need to thread the needle hard with this one.
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It would be odd for it to snow in DC/Baltimore be rain in Philly/NYC and then snow in Eastern CT/RI/SE Mass like GFS is showing. Not saying it's impossible but it just looks odd. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023020718&fh=141&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs
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18Z GFS brings the weekend storm back north, what a tease lol.
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Euro is a little NW although still not too close for our area. I guess still worth keeping an eye on tracking this for another day or so.
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It may definitely be wrong but the look in the gfs at hour 132 is the best look we’ve had all winter.
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12Z Euro has a coastal hugger on 2/12
