Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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How much snow did nyc get in the famous March 2018? I know the city got shafted a lot compared to other areas nearby.
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I don’t think we can hit normal at this point at least NYC and south, climo is just too against this area in March. The northern suburbs to Boston could rake in a pattern like this if all goes well.
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Would like to see cmc come on board for 2/28 before getting too hopeful as Canadian models have been good this winter.
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I mean if its snow to 50 degrees and/or heavy rain then I agree but if it's snow to sleet to light rain/drizzle i'm ok with that. I guess in the latter scenario I'm assuming it doesn't all get washed away.
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To be honest storms haven't been working out too well for Boston either this winter so I don't think we've had a lot of true SWFE events this winter. It's mostly been cutters. I agree an SWFE is not too great for us but 1-3 inches to mix to light rain would be way better than anything we've had.
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In a potential gradient type pattern like this the differences between southern and northern parts of the subforum could be pretty huge in the next few weeks.
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GFS/CMC both have a big storm next Saturday. Verbatim looks like snow to mix for the city but precip type doesn't matter this far out.
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0Z CMC is a sleetstorm for the metro area. Late transfer so lots of mid level warming. (it does actually look a touch colder than it's 12z run though)
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0Z GFS ticked north a bit for 2/28, not much but any tick north is probably not what you want to see the way the winter has been going and the setup.
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The first event will be within day 5 range by 0Z runs tonight. This is the best look we've had although I also realize a lot can go wrong (stronger primary, later transfer, transfer becoming coastal hugger).
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At least this time it has support from the Euro and CMC. A lot can still trend better or worse because NYC seems to be squeezed between all rain to the south and heavy snow to the north.
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I’d like my chances for next week in SNE too. Here it’s more iffy.
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Rain/sleet/ and big snow flakes falling now.
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Why would people in Brooklyn be unhappy? That’s 3x more snow than they’ve had lol winter.
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RGEM too warm today as it didn't have frozen precip this far south. NAM/GFS too cold as they had moderate snow this far south.
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3-6/4-8 would be amazing in this winter.
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Same here in southern Yonkers, even had a few flakes mixed in.
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Sheeze Boston is crushed on the Euro, at least we get some snow. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022212&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Pretty good secondary track honestly but would probably need to transfer a bit quicker for the coast.
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Signs of secondary development for 2/28. Rarely works out south of NE but will keep an eye on it.
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Yea pretty rare to snow on the pacific coast at sea level. Almost as rare as no snow on the Atlantic coast at sea level anywhere south of New England all winter.
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Yea and even an unfavorable track maybe can provide front end snow (something that hasn’t even worked out at all this winter).
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This model just doesn't quit. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022118&fh=252&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Both US models have NYC starting as snow tomorrow, RGEM has no snow southeast of the catskills.
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12Z CMC is a glancing blow on Sunday, in this pathetic winter is trackable and probably our best opportunity since cold air won't be an issue. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&rh=2023022112&fh=114
