Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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The kuchera map is a little more realistic, has 2.8 inches in NYC.
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0Z RGEM slightly juicier for tomorrow About the same as last run if anything slightly south/colder for Monday. Actually noticeably colder, the city/LI stays all frozen through end of the run.
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Yea the snow map on the gfs makes no sense and I wouldn't even consider them. Synoptically though it does look very different from the other models. Oh and the GFS is still absolutely snow bombing the interior next weekend.
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The GFS has the secondary tucked just south of LI so congrats Boston, rain for NYC.
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Gfs still the same. gfs/NAM vs Ukie/euro. cmc/RGEM in between the two camps.
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Yea it’s a tight gradient admittedly it looks decent Imby but very sharp cutoff at the bottom of the city. Again though I think the fact it’s on board at all or borderline is maybe a good sign because it hasn’t wanted anytung to do with giving us snow all winter.
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Given RGEM is slightly warm biased and has nyc at 33 at 10 pm Mon I don’t think this is quite a fantasy anymore.
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RGEM looks pretty good Mon night or at least as good as we can realistically expect.
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RGEM still about 0.2 to 0.5 region wide for tomorrow. In any other winter we probably wouldn’t be tracking this.
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The NAM is such a bad model. I don’t even look at it anymore and I looked at the last 3 runs and the changes run to run are so dramatic.
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I think NAM likely way overdone but ACY getting over an inch before NYC does this winter would really stink.
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Very interested in seeing what RGEM shows for Monday. I don’t trust the Ukie at all or the gfs at all so if the RGEM looks anything like euro I’d feel more optimistic.
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I was always less interested in tomorrow than Mon. I think tomorrow is half inch at best, maybe a bit more for extreme southern parts of the subforum but the NAM as we continue to see is terrible and flip flops.
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Probably will be a fairly sharp gradient but unclear where that will set up yet. Anywhere from just south of the city to I84 is still on the table.
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Not saying this is anything close but remember November 2018? Can definitely dump in a short amount of time with the right setup.
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Yea I noticed that, is that because of the confluence?
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Yea the lack of cold air is definitely a concern here. I certainly don't feel confident in wintry precip but could also see it happening if everything aligns well. At least this storm is trackable inside of 96 hours for the immediate metro area which I can't remember any other storms being this winter.
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Ok yea i remember there were two similar storms that winter so they kind of blur together.
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I was actually on north shore of LI for that storm at school at Stony Brook. It was all sleet I think.
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Not bad at all temp wise during heaviest precip. Of course it's just one run.
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12Z Euro severely weakens the primary and develops a secondary quickly off the NJ coast. Thats what we would need to see a more wintry solution.
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Euro backs Ukie for Monday-Tuesday. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Oh so similar setup then but I'm guessing way stronger secondary. I remember the storm well but not the synoptics.
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Wasn't that more of a coastal hugger?
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A few years ago the NAM was a good short range model but I can't remember the last time it had a win when it was showing something different from other models.
