Winterweatherlover
-
Posts
1,109 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
-
I still don't know how much of the 10:1 on the Ukie is snow vs sleet but if its really snow then it has the snow way south of the other models.
-
CMC/GFS both show snow now for next weekend.
-
Yea maybe. I'm not sure which event will be more interesting or if either will be interesting at all but I see what you are saying about cold and all snow being better.
-
0Z GFS/CMC didn't trend worse for 2/28 at least.
-
So how many runs until this turns into a cutter? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022318&fh=204&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
-
Yea although reading some of the comments here you'd think north of I84 and SNE has 100 inches of snow on the winter, they haven't had it much better than us thus far. Obviously this storm could change that if it verifies as currently depicted. But really I think anyone not highly elevated and south of I90 thus far has had <10 inches snow this winter.
-
Terrible trend https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022306&fh=138&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h-imp&m=gfs vs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022318&fh=126&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h-imp&m=gfs
-
GFS a little better with the secondary but the primary kills our snow chances, congrats NE.
-
Same impression I have. I don't have data but it just seems to often show whacky solutions and be wrong in the last two winters. Btw it cut back a lot on snow for Sat it looks like (no surprise).
-
Yea most likely the blocking will just mean 30s and rain instead of 50s and rain. I def think you are in better shape north shore of LI than the city is with this one for some front end frozen but that's about it. I'd probably want to be NE of a line from around White Plains to maybe north shore of Suffolk County to see any meaningful frozen precip with this. The HV is a wild card because depends on the mid levels, they could do well with this or could end up a complete sleetfest there.
-
Euro and CMC both cut inland on 3/4 so not seeing any signs of real change. I know you mentioned the 3/10-3/20 period being the chance so hope so.
-
Wouldn't be surprised if by storm time it's mixing issues for Boston and 12-15 for NNE the way this winter is going but hope this one doesn't trend that extreme.
-
Yea I was a bit more optimistic when the models were trending south but now that they are back north its pretty much over for Tuesday south of I84 and west of the CT border, we've seen this song and dance so many times I'm expecting another 50-100 mile north tick from where everything is right now. Maybe we'll be surprised but no reason to think otherwise.
-
Yea Mid March is ok but we'll basically have a one week window.
-
Pretty terrible for Brooklyn, Queens, SI, and Manhattan. I guess not that terrible everywhere else, what a gradient near the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022312&fh=144&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ecmwf_full
-
Euro is terrible near the coast. Here we go…
-
I heard somewhere Ukie counts sleet as snow, is that true? If so that could explain the higher totals on 2/28.
-
Ukie looks good for 2/28. I don’t think the Ukie is that good of a model but interesting to see what Euro looks like.
-
Definitely. A lot of times 1-3 inches becomes 1-3 flakes to sleet to rain. Sometimes it does actually work out though. We are all I think somewhat jaded by a winter where it has not worked out once.
-
3/4 looks great on the GFS, just 9 days away.
-
Agree I think I once heard a saying that if the primary gets north of Ohio its usually over for NYC and points south. I seem to be in the minority here though over being ok/borderline excited for a possible 1-3 inch event, it's been that bad of a winter. I could also see how this could turn into just sleet to rain though.
-
Verbatim looks improved over its 0Z run. The front end snow backed SW a bit, has 1-3 inches for most of LI and immediately north of the city. The low north of Toronto and a flatter secondary is not a good look though.
-
Such a fine line because we want secondary to develop and blocking to make it not hug the coast but if it’s too Far East and squashed we will have temp issues with a primary in the lakes. Miller bs are tough.
-
Yea secondary looks weak, east and meandering too which isn’t ideal. The snow looks all front end/swfe type setup this run
-
12z gfs looks good but definitely a tight gradient just to the south so hard to feel too confident.
