Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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RGEM looks pretty good Mon night or at least as good as we can realistically expect.
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RGEM still about 0.2 to 0.5 region wide for tomorrow. In any other winter we probably wouldn’t be tracking this.
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The NAM is such a bad model. I don’t even look at it anymore and I looked at the last 3 runs and the changes run to run are so dramatic.
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I think NAM likely way overdone but ACY getting over an inch before NYC does this winter would really stink.
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Very interested in seeing what RGEM shows for Monday. I don’t trust the Ukie at all or the gfs at all so if the RGEM looks anything like euro I’d feel more optimistic.
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I was always less interested in tomorrow than Mon. I think tomorrow is half inch at best, maybe a bit more for extreme southern parts of the subforum but the NAM as we continue to see is terrible and flip flops.
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Probably will be a fairly sharp gradient but unclear where that will set up yet. Anywhere from just south of the city to I84 is still on the table.
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Not saying this is anything close but remember November 2018? Can definitely dump in a short amount of time with the right setup.
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Yea I noticed that, is that because of the confluence?
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Yea the lack of cold air is definitely a concern here. I certainly don't feel confident in wintry precip but could also see it happening if everything aligns well. At least this storm is trackable inside of 96 hours for the immediate metro area which I can't remember any other storms being this winter.
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Ok yea i remember there were two similar storms that winter so they kind of blur together.
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I was actually on north shore of LI for that storm at school at Stony Brook. It was all sleet I think.
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Not bad at all temp wise during heaviest precip. Of course it's just one run.
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12Z Euro severely weakens the primary and develops a secondary quickly off the NJ coast. Thats what we would need to see a more wintry solution.
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Euro backs Ukie for Monday-Tuesday. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Oh so similar setup then but I'm guessing way stronger secondary. I remember the storm well but not the synoptics.
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Wasn't that more of a coastal hugger?
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A few years ago the NAM was a good short range model but I can't remember the last time it had a win when it was showing something different from other models.
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Looks like decent consensus for about 0.5 inch tomorrow. I know some models show a bit more but that seems realistic.
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Either this model is smoking some good stuff (very likely) or people will be surprised on Monday (even if some of it is sleet thats still a lot of frozen precip). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Actually Boston seems to be getting less and less snow on Monday on recent models. Not sure why but I'm guessing the initial snow is not making it as far east and a flatter secondary.
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The immediate city provably true but I’m still not ruling out 1+ inch NW and NE suburbs and maybe even north shore LI. We’ll see. As always depends if it comes in disorganized or like a wall. A wall can dump an inch even if it flips to rain in an hour.
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The 12z RGEM has precip starting in nyc while the low is still over Western Great Lakes region. That’s actually probably better than if it started when the low was closer to Buffalo. We don’t know if it’s right with early onset precip but that’s what you need for frozen precip with a cutter.
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The storm on 3/4 really looks like a possible monster for those on the right side of the gradient.
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I think gfs is too warm on Monday because even RGEM starts nyc snow. RGEM has a slight warm bias so it’s a good model to consider for likelihood of frozen precip.
