Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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That map looks so different from pivotal.
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Gfs just trended significantly for Mon/Tue, probably still will cave further in the next few runs.
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Light snow here.
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The Monday storm has definitely severely weakened but I’d imagine we’d all take a 2-4 inch snow to sleet event over rain.
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I mean 33/31 temp onset of precip is usually favorable for snow?
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Looks about the same?
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Looking at the soundings they don’t seem to totally match the precip type maps unfortunately.
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Boston gets 1.5 inches changing to rain on RGEM. This could be some bust there.
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12z RGEM is some cutoff across the city, north bronx close to 4 inches, jfk 1. This one is going to be a tight forecast.
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No not where I am. I don’t think anyone in the city is seeing snow right now?
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Hrrrrr has snow to the north and south, shuts out nyc today.
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Yea could be noticeable difference between jfk and cpk in this setup but also may not be, all depends where the gradient sets up. Reminds me of the old days where it seems it may set up in or near the city.
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Thanks. That was my point if we get an advisory level snow and flip to sleet and little or no rain it would be kind of wow for this winter. Also Euro is close to warning level snow just north of the city. I get some of that may end up sleet so have to watch mid levels closely.
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Yea it def went north but still has decent snow immediately nw of the city. Ukie is also a model I don’t care much about but I wonder if the euro will cut back.
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Yea probably want weaker and sheared out unless you’re I90 on north.
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Will be interesting to see which models win this though because the gfs is also hammering an inland snowstorm next weekend and other models are suppressed so we’ll see if gfs is having an over amped bias in this pattern.
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And Europe. Honestly I don’t really care what the gfs shows, it’s usually not going to be right if it’s alone. Also the 0Z gfs is def a trend in direction of other models.
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0Z cmc similar to RGEM for Mon/Tue
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The kuchera map is a little more realistic, has 2.8 inches in NYC.
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0Z RGEM slightly juicier for tomorrow About the same as last run if anything slightly south/colder for Monday. Actually noticeably colder, the city/LI stays all frozen through end of the run.
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Yea the snow map on the gfs makes no sense and I wouldn't even consider them. Synoptically though it does look very different from the other models. Oh and the GFS is still absolutely snow bombing the interior next weekend.
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The GFS has the secondary tucked just south of LI so congrats Boston, rain for NYC.
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Gfs still the same. gfs/NAM vs Ukie/euro. cmc/RGEM in between the two camps.
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Yea it’s a tight gradient admittedly it looks decent Imby but very sharp cutoff at the bottom of the city. Again though I think the fact it’s on board at all or borderline is maybe a good sign because it hasn’t wanted anytung to do with giving us snow all winter.
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Given RGEM is slightly warm biased and has nyc at 33 at 10 pm Mon I don’t think this is quite a fantasy anymore.
