Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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I don't think it's going to be cold enough or juicy enough to get 6 inches in Riverdale (And I'm only focused on that because I live right near Riverdale) but I do agree with the overall point that there could be some noticeable differences across the city.
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I think gfs too juicy with this showing 5-8 inches most suburbs. If it’s cold it’s gonna be drier. Although I guess I could also see how colder would lead to possibly higher ratios north of the city.
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Probably for another thread but 18z gfs coming in noticeably colder with that one.
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Euro seems to be the only model showing both cold and decent qpf. I’d def take the RGEM solution though probably the best we are going to get with this.
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Yes but expected in March.
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It is starting to get exhausting tracking a storm with a ceiling of 3-5 inches but in this winter that would be 3 to 5 times most peoples totals.
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I mean this was kind of expected although even this event probably dissapointed expectations which weren't high to begin with. It was fun to see giant flakes though for 10 minutes.
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Euro coming north for next weekend (actually starting late Friday) hopefully doesn't end up as far north as the GFS.
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Agree the Euro and American models will mess with your head lol, I trust the Canadian models most. However they are showing sleet close to Philly and not blanking the city.
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Doesn't look like quite all snow for NYC on the Euro but pretty close at least for northern parts. Would be interested to see Kuchera maps.
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Once you start seeing frozen precip down to Philly and Southern NJ its a good sign for at least something for us. I'm still not buying the Euro's all snow solution but I also am growing confident that uptons map blanking the city entirely will be wrong.
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I have a different take. I think HPN might be in a very good spot with this one. I think areas just north of the city could do very well with the front end. It depends how far north the pellets make it but usually being just north of sleet is good for heavy snow in this type of WAA setup.
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Definitely conservative near the coast but I could see why given the winter and the setup.
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I'd def rather have the Canadian models and Euro in my camp than the GFS/Ukie. However I agree with you about SWFE and late north trends so agree not to be too hopeful yet.
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Can you post their map?
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Looking at the run the best dynamics on the Ukie run go into NW NJ and the HV. The city is only 0.2 qpf through 12z Tue. So some of it lack of cold air but some of it is where does that initial heavy moisture focus.
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Ukie way warmer for Monday-Tuesday. Another model like gfs I would put low stock in though but potentially a more amped up/ warmer solution is still on the table.
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Thanks for the analysis.
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Hopefully the stuff in pa can make it here without drying out.
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The gfs looks on its own planet for next weekend as well.
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This has already been the best storm of the winter, giant flakes sticking right away.
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I don’t disagree with you. I think we are on the same page here. The Canadian models on board is a huge flag that this is a real threat for accumulating snow down to NYC. Gfs should be of low consideration right now unless any other models trend to it.
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Huge flakes now the type you usually see when about to change to rain yet it’s 25.
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I can tell you whoever can avoid sleet with that initial surge if moisture will do well because there’s gonna be some heavy waa snow just north of the sleet.
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It had been showing a significant storm with rain NYC/LI and 6+ snow HV to NE. Now the gfs is the only model that looks like that. All the others mostly show a 2-5 inch event everywhere.
