Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Yea assuming the NAM is still good at that. We haven’t had a storm like this yet this winter to know.
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It’s an awful awful model lately but can sniff mid level warming at least in the past it was good for that.
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I live right at bronx/westchester border and can tell you the climo here is not the same as HPN but definitely closer to HPN than LGA so you’re thinking isn’t way off.
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Bronx zoo would be a good representation for bronx it’s right in the middle of borough basically. Although will say the NW bronx is a little less urban and probably has a climo more similar to southern Westchester than the very urban south bronx.
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Honestly this probably matters more than anything. Anyone NYC on north should wetbulb to 32 if precip is heavy enough. If it’s light garbage it’ll be white rain all night for anyone south of I80 latitude.
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Hard to see why it would be too dry given the temp contrasts north to south and placement of secondary formation being ideal for this region and the warm ocean waters.
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I could see 10:1 ratios north of NYC especially if it’s heavy enough. It should wet bulb down to 32 or even lower in some suburbs and it’s at night. Given what the RGEM just showed I’d say It’s NAM being the NAM.
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Still kind of dry but got a little wetter than the last run.
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I always lean RGEM as the starting point. It might be too dry this time around but probably 3-5 inch max event inside the city for this one, imo the bronx is not getting 6+ inches like that map shows, I’m not sure anyone is but maybe there could be a narrow strip of 6+.
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Imo thats way overdone, I could be wrong but I’d lean toss.
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NAM looks lousy for the southern fringe but I wouldn’t take NAM too seriously although in a sleet setup sometimes it’s sniffs mid level warming well.
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WSW for Orange County, might be the first watch issued all year by upton?
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Should be a WWA issued soon I’d think at least for Manhattan/Bronx?
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Gfs vs all is usually a good spot to be in if all show something else we prefer. In this case it’s still a bit too far out to take anything that seriously.
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Gfs completes the cave, 4.2 inches for NYC.
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It's hard to see this trending significantly with the Euro and Canadian models both locked in on colder solutions this close to the event. However the scary part is even a small north shift could have big implications for southern parts of the subforum.
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Yea I wonder why it's drier, is that a bias?
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022600&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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0Z RGEM looks good, looks like mostly snow but still kind of dry. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022600&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022600&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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It depends on the type of storm and if it's a gradient vs warm air coming in. I do agree I can't think of a time upper Manhattan/Bronx were mainly snow while JFK got almost nothing. Also the maps seem to be showing snow down to JFK but I'm guessing temps are an issue in terms of accumulations?
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Same in the city, it has 4” north bronx and less than 1” for jfk. (I'm going by Kuchera maps).
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NAM looks good from northern parts of NYC on north. Sharp cutoff in southern NYC. Think it’s still playing catch-up anyway.
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Maps?
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It's hard to predict 25+ inches of snow during a time period where NYC historically has never had a 12+ storm. Would need to see many different snow events in March for this to happen. Nothing is impossible but the odds are unlikely.
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Seems a bit more realistic than the first map. Hard to believe that places like Southern Westchester might be getting their first WWA advisory all season.
