Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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GFS impressive NW of the city, tight gradient in the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs
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True it looks about the same as all along, I guess I was hoping it would trend a little wetter like the other models, it does also reintroduce sleet into parts of the city this run. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Ok fair point https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=qpf_acc-imp&m=rdps https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rdps
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Unfortunately drier and warmer will probably go together in this case. The RGEM I see is dry and now reintroduces sleet into the metro area. My guess is the warmer models are not giving the metro area great banding.
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NAM warm RGEM dry HRRR lovely guess we’ll be nowcasting
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Tough forecast. Better than boring.
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Tough forecast but hard to see less than 3 where you are.
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Better well defined secondary this run it looks like. Would be kind of frustrating to waste this with cold air at the start of the storm but I can see your snow to rain scenario being a possible outcome.
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I agree. Maybe isolated 6+ NW of I287.
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Map has 4-6”
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And the first WWA officially of the season has been issued for Southern Westchester and maybe Bergen and CT coast? Expect at least northern parts of the city to get one too.
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Keeps upping and upping. Meanwhile NAM has the city and even nearby suburbs mixing with sleet so we’ll see. NAM is bad but sometimes good with mid level warming.
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Euro not GFS level bad but trending in that direction. Surprised if the GFS is leading the way for once, oh well.
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That wasn't the case for the storm tomorrow but I know thats a rare oddity. I agree my gut feeling is this is going to end up too far north for us but hope I'm wrong. It's not even so much that the Ukie/GFS are north that worries me because those models are whacky but the fact the Euro and CMC are bumping north every run.
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Sounds reasonable. You have to pay to access that right?
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Very odd to feel like winter is starting at the end of February.
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I think at this point if JFK gets 1-2 inches it'd be a success. Upton has them getting a half an inch. These forecasts are so hard though because you never know if its going to go February 2008/November 2018 on us or it's going to end up a sleetfest changing to rain.
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Yea looking at their map I don’t even think anywhere in the city or north shore LI is getting an advisory yet.
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For now but the other models are ticking north. Hopefully the blocking can come through.
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3/4 storm Like: 12z cmc don’t like: gfs trending even more NW
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12z Cmc is 1-3 for the city and coast, looks like lighter precip and some mixing.
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Too low near the coast imo but can also understand why upton is being conservative and not model hugging.
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Likely overdone but verbatim warning level snow event from northern NYC on north.
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Unfortunately I can’t post a map right now maybe someone else can but I think you’re in central Westchester where kuchera map is 7-8 inches.
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Gfs pretty impressive for NYC and points north and west. I’m still kind of confused by why different models are showing such different qpf.
