Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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This was never really going to be our storm unless we got lucky with the blocking squashing it, but spring isn't coming yet, the favorable period for wintry weather is more so mid month.
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Likely true but still over 4 days out.
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GFS still look very amped and warm for Friday-Saturday. However this is what it looked like at hour 81 for tonight. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022418&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Probably not important at this range but CMC is terrible for the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Maybe some closings in the Bronx? Roads could be very nasty at 7 am.
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Epic run just NW of the city. Very likely overdone. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Fair point. Should still probably start snow though but won’t accumulate unless it’s like 36 or lower.
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Looks like it flips to mix/rain for all of the metro area but the south shore is the only place that may have mixing issues during initial precip burst.
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Agree I don’t think the storm will wash away itself although with temps and sun angle probably won’t be much left by late afternoon tomorrow.
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I don’t see this being a last minute disaster scenario.
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Yea I think expect 1-3 inches for the City. Anything more would be a pleasant surprise.
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The NAM is 1-3 on the front end for the metro. It does have sleet to Orange County and rain to Westchester. It could be right but also the RGEM has been so steady and colder that I’m not taking the NAM too seriously.
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The Ukmet lol
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I just looked at the NAM and I don’t even know what to think of it. It’s been such a lousy model but sometimes it’s right in these scenarios.
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It’s not my favorite type of storm by any means but it’s more interesting than all rain.
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The only way CPK is less than an inch is it becomes a complete bust either in terms of sleet fest or very dry and white rain. Either is still possible but unlikely.
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I am almost sure sleet will mix in at some point at LGA and likely even well north of LGA. Hopefully it can dump before that.
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They started very conservative and now almost seem bullish with totals.
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The HRRR usually did pretty well with winter storms last year inside of 18 hours so that's probably the model I'd go with once we hit tomorrow and of course paying attention to the most important stuff like temperature, dewpoint, and radar.
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It's a terrible model lately, similar to NAM it shows very different things run to run. However I believe the HRRR, GFS, and Euro are currently the only models that look decent for NYC/Coast. I looked again and RGEM is ok too. I'm defining decent as 2+ inches.
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Pretty awful honestly, it's not a good model but it is a bit concerning multiple models are cutting back this close to the event. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Slight tick north on CMC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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I can see why upton went conservative, the trends are not great for the city and coast although some models are still cold so going to be nowcasting situation.
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CMC looks warmer https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=123&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Going to be a battle between the high to the north and that strong low. Forced south, gfs picking up on the blocking https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
