Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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I have a different take. This storm is more favorable setup for this area than western PA. Plus daytime vs nighttime. This is not a white rain event unless precip is light.
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I mean it definitely could be worse, i've seen more borderline forecasts. This is pretty clearly mostly snow event for most of the metro north of a line from New Brunswick to the immediate LI beaches. How much it accumulates, how heavy it is, and I guess how soon does the sleet mix in are the main questions.
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Not sure if it has to get to freezing, 33 and heavy snow will accumulate fine at night. Obviously 31-32 would make a big difference especially if not that heavy.
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022718&fh=19&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Cold and Juicy
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I noticed that too on the HRRR seems to be a bit of a lull around 11 pm and I can already imagine everyone on here freaking out at that time and then steady snow from 12-5 am (seems to stay snow longer than some of the other models).
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HRRR starts as rain, given current temps seems realistic. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023022718&fh=7&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Dewpoints though suggest fast wet bulbing https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022718&fh=7&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Best Guess ISP 1.5 inches JFK 1.5 inches LGA 2.5 inches EWR 3.5 inches CPK 3 inches HPN 6 inches SWF 7 inches
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I can see Westchester schools closing or at least delayed even south of White Plains if some of the short range models are right. 7 am may be very rough travel.
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If the Euro/CMC don't go further north at the 0Z runs maybe the trend has stabilized, if they go even further north it's likely over.
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Euro ticked north again, verbatim still not terrible, does transfer to a secondary off the NJ coast. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Probably a burst of heavy snow 9 pm-1 am or so, then on and off sleet when light vs snow when heavier until morning north shore/Northern NYC and on and off sleet and light rain south shore/southern NYC. Probably everyone in the metro flips to light rain/drizzle tomorrow morning before ending.
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May not start until around 9 pm looking at some of the more recent models which would help in terms of cooling after sundown before moisture arrives. This seems to be one of those events where everything is sort of aligning in the right way.
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Nothing much has really changed except maybe higher confidence in >2 inches of snow from CPK northward due to increased moisture. The borderline areas are still borderline but I think the more thumpy it comes in the more it will benefit everybody .
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Yes more mixing but actually increased snow totals for most areas compared to 0Z https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Starting to get November 2018 vibes a little with amounts increasing more and more as event approaches but also vary this could still bust low too.
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Hope it’s right. Would be amazing to get 6 inches here, might even last until Wed.
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Ok you are right about that but I haven’t seen too many people predicting that except maybe one or two posts.
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Should see changes in the forecast after the 12z euro comes out.
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We are getting our biggest snow of the year tonight and you are still being negative. I haven’t seen too many people predict it’s going to be a March 2018 repeat.
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Dewpoints 7 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=12&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 10 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=15&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 am https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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I specifically posted RGEM because it has slight warm bias but usually pretty good with temps. Factoring in wet bulb my guess would be 32-33 North Shore/Northern NYC and 33-35 South Shore/Southern NYC during height of precip.
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Not that it matters much but for those wanting any good news the Ukie did trend a little south https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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RGEM Temps 7 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022715&fh=9&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 10 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=15&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 am https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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What's the rationale, why are they not a good tool to look at?
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Its kind of both a pro and a con that it's happening at night. Night time should definitely help with accumulation at this time of the year but also most of us will miss out on seeing it snow and it'll be mostly gone by tomorrow afternoon (maybe tomorrow morning along the immediate coast).
