Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Be interested to see what the 12z Euro shows. If Euro/CMC both show a big storm two straight runs it’s probably happening in some form.
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The exact track doesn’t matter this far out it’s just the storm signal. I also wouldn’t be shocked if it is an inland runner though.
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12z cmc delivering for next Sat. A bit warm for coast verbatim but important part this far out is strong storm on east coast.
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Maybe northern parts of this subforum too.
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I think that was last Fridays run for tomorrow. Meh.
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It's not getting off to a good start tomorrow or for at least the next week either. Can't remember too many big Marches when the first 10 days of the month didn't produce but I could be wrong.
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I'd def take 6-12, that's legit In terms of lower amounts I lean the way you've stated in previous posts there is a difference between 3-6 inches followed by rain or 50 degree weather the next day vs 3-6 inches of all snow that sticks around for a little while. Also I really don't take the record very seriously because a lot of the area is already above the CPK number. It's just one spot.
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That would honestly make me more depressed than snow to our north.
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Definitely, the upcoming pattern may have potential but can also be a complete shutout. I'm not too hopeful until I see storms actually showing up in the 4-5 day range. However I do get that a good pattern and cold air are important prerequisites for having a chance.
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Maybe I'm too jaded by this winter but I'm not excited by anything until the RGEM is on board (so basically nothing outside of 84 hours and a model I trust). So far I've been right though, the one time the RGEM was on board we got snow.
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My guess for tomorrow SE of I95- All rain I95-I287- <1 inch snow/sleet than rain I287-I84- 1-2 inches snow than mostly sleet ending as rain I84 region- 2-4 inches snow changing to sleet maybe ending as light rain.
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5-8 is possible up there if mid levels aren’t that torched but it’s pretty unlikely.
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To me it lasted longer than I expected so this week was a win.
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Yea I think 2-4 reasonable expectation to start north of I84.
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Living at the bottom of Westchester my climo is not that similar to yours or the immediate coast but definitely track the interior storms because like to go snow chasing. There hasn't been much opportunity even for that this winter.
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Looks like a solid sleetstorm NW of I287 with maybe some decent snow to start north of I84.
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Looks like tomorrow night turning into a classic maybe brief snow/sleet to rain SE of I287, snow to sleet NW of I287.
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I don't want to get pulled into an event that I don't like at all but the 0Z RGEM did seem to come in colder with the sleet line very close to northern parts of the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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The clouds the last two days have helped keep the snow around longer than I expected although next few days are really warm and rainy so it’ll be gone.
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Cmc seeing a near miss and Euro looking like that are probably a good signal for the weekend of 3/11-3/12.
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240 hours out but yes it looks good.
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It has basically been until this week.
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Seeing posters like Allsnow and Forky on board is reason for optimism for March. If Snowman19 ever comes on board we know it's going to happen.
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Honestly I could kind of care less in terms of seasonal totals and how they are measured because they are often inaccurate anyway but I think JFK is a good representation for Southern Queens, Brooklyn, and Southern Nassau but not the NYC as a whole in terms of tracking totals.
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Yep so locations I mentioned meets that criteria.
