Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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I wouldn't have high confidence on a look like that working out but sure it's possible.
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Looking at thruway cameras it looks like the cutoff between basically nothing and a snow event was around New Paltz/Kingston.
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It did cut to northern Ohio I think but then transferred to a Miller B hugging LI.
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And it was wrong about the storm before. Recency bias. Also the other models caved to gfs with the past storm by hour 120 so I don’t consider it a huge deal.
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I agree with 0z/12z. That’s also how to pick up on true trends and not small run to run waffles. I’m also trying to focus more on certain models and find it’s sorta helpful. Outside of 84 hours it’s CMC/Euro. I’ll look at gfs or ukmet for additional support but if CMC/Euro not on board I’m not interested. Inside of 84 hours I start with RGEM and look for others for support.
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The 0Z Euro looked quite good but obviously need to see some consistency.
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Cmc looks more Iike my thinking for next weekend than the gfs. Still may not cut it as miller B’s usually are not great for SW of NE.
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It came in too disjointed here. If it was a wall maybe woulda have been more pingling but has basically just been light rain mixed with some sleet briefly.
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Sleet/rain mix.
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Sure I could see pellets down to the northern parts of the Bronx tonight. Wouldn't expect any accumulation.
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Honestly that's what I'm thinking this will end up but whether the secondary ends up west of NYC or over the Atlantic I don't know.
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What about the Euro ensemble?
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Agree but theres a big difference between the 6-7 day range vs 4-5. If most of the models still show a cutter by 0Z tomorrow I'd agree its over.
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The storm we had on Monday was a cutter. I have no doubt this is going to try to cut but I wonder if it can transfer at some point due to the blocking unless the blocking is now weaker?
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The look on the 18Z GFS is pretty horrible, I guess still time to change.
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RGEM has leaned on the colder side too at least with the sleet line so given how the RGEM/HRRR both look I could see sleet closer to the city than predicted or even into northern parts of the city. I still think mid levels will make it hard to accumulate >1 inch snow south of I84 but if it comes in like a wall maybe.
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Probably too cold but I guess we'll find out soon https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023030321&fh=5&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023030321&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Agree with this, within the next 3 weeks either it will deliver or we’ll stop hearing about potential.
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Always a new problem that comes up that’s why it’s hard to take anything serious more than 5 days out.
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Well NW of I95 yes.
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Haven't we already gotten a few massive cutters this winter? A coastal hugger or inland runner that is strong and a mix I could see but the last thing I'm interested in is another cutter.
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This far out they can waiver, once it's inside 6 days they usually don't waiver.
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12z Euro is a big rainstorm but probably doesn’t matter this far out, big storm signal still there
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I can see a Miller B where it tries to cut inland but than transfers due to the block.
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You said something kind of positive, now I know this is a real threat!
