Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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I totally agree.
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0.3 will tick cpk toward not breaking the record lol.
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If those models are correct someone in a narrow area is going to get a nice surprise but i still think those are overdone. RGEM never came on board for this.
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Models seem to have two waves now, one around 3/11 and a second stronger one around 3/13-3/14. A lot to sort out here.
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Must be rain at the immediate coast based on the snow map but doesn't really matter this far out. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030512&fh=144&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_024h-imp&m=ukmet
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Not really in my interpretation, this was 0Z, seems like it came west or at least is focusing on a different wave. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030500&fh=180&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps
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12z CMC cuts (I don't anticipate this being the outcome but presenting all possible solutions). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
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12Z Canadian has no interest either. I lean non event for now but am tracking it.
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Not the euro but a massive trend toward it. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030512&fh=147&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030512&fh=153&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Here we go
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Yep this is either going to weak disorganized and flat or an East coast storm, this is not going to be a raging cutter.
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I’m not calling for a hecs but the gfs is probably going to cave this time and last time I said other models would probably cave to gfs. I think we either end up with significant east coast storm or a flat weak wave.
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I don’t like that the RGEM has no interest.
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Agree the Ukie leans flat, the cmc is flat, the euro is a HECS and euro ensembles lean flat. GFS is most likely wrong.
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Yea I’m not interested in this unless the RGEM comes on board especially because it’s solution makes sense for clippers.
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That’s ok. Would rather it be less amped til his far out.
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We haven’t had a clipper in a while. The question with clippers is will the moisture make it to the coast?
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Still hard to believe that CPK received only 0.9 after midnight while parts of the Bronx got 3+ from that second batch. I'm still skeptical of the numbers being that low at CPK but I guess it's possible.
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Sort of deceptive then but that is funny.
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Similar to CMC the secondary develops too late, not a terrible look but as others have stated Miller B's are usually tough for us. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030412&fh=186&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full
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Weak and flat is what you want to see at hour 168, not amped. However the Ukie is a terrible model lately.
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Way too far out still to say it's going anyway IMO. The ensembles look good and that's what matters more than OP runs at this point.
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I think that comes into play more so in April.
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Secondary on CMC but too weak/late unless you live in Boston. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030412&fh=174&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030412&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
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Baby steps on gfs at the surface the low went from Iowa/Minnesota border to Chicago. I still think at best we are looking at a miller B scenario.
