Winterweatherlover
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Posts posted by Winterweatherlover
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7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:
Disappointing model runs tonight with respect to 2nd wave.
Too far out to put too much into these runs for that one. Probably won’t figure it out until wave 1 is through.
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RGEM looks decent for storm 1 too.
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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:
Its cold enough probably so long as we don't see it track way north like the NAM is showing
I was talking about the second storm on the Euro. Not sure if the lack of cold air is due to airmass or track though.
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41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
That Euro run was very unimpressive. Using the Kuchera, it has 1-2 inches of snow, total, in the metro area over the next 10 days. Not so much as a peep from Bernie Rayno, which is very telling. When he doesn’t think there’s a legit snow threat for the east coast he doesn’t post anything. If he thought this weekend and next week was a legit threat he’d be all over it right now
Sure this pattern could fail but it also succeed but appreciate you always letting us know the reasons why it could fail (not being sarcastic).
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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:
The Saturday event is worth watching for most of us IMO. It’s a pretty impressive upper level low that’s taking a half decent track for once and isn’t in danger of cutting. The confluence might crush it south but for once we wouldn’t have to worry about a cutter or SWFE threat, and a 50-70 mile or so shift north is a very real possibility at this stage and could deliver a warning or near warning event where it can bring in good moisture since it should be cold enough.
Anything for next week is still way too early to call since we’ll need to see how the first storm rearranges the pattern and any setup for a follow up storm.
Really good post.
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17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:
I would not consider this unimpressive
No cold air but I guess if it bombed out 6 hours earlier than the 12Z OP run is showing it could be a bit different.
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Now we have 3 waves to track but am getting tired of focusing on stuff so far out so right now just focused on wave 1 which looks decent on most models for at least a few inches but of course could change because of lack of cold air.
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Two storm total CMC (Sorry if too many maps but people say they like visuals)
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Storm 2 snow totals (CMC)
Interior still snowing
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Storm 2: GFS totally surpressed
CMC looks like will be a hit
Verbatim CMC is fairly weak and tracks inside the BM, snow to rain coast, snow inland.
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That blocking really means business, the storm tracks SE once it gets offshore.
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Snowfall amounts meh for coast, could be better if dynamics get involved but storm 2 is a way better setup for the coast.
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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
Yes it mixed with snow here around 1 PM and changed to all snow around 4 PM but the really heavy stuff with the high winds came in at night.
I saw it was raining all the way up to Maine with 100 mph winds....what a weird storm.....I think March 1888 was like that too (and New York City had similar totals, 21 inches in both storms!)
Rained in Boston and Maine, 3+ feet in HV and Catskills. Truly fascinating storm. This one probably won’t be that extreme but does have big potential.
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Just now, LibertyBell said:
That may have helped it accumulate better though.
Yea sleet is usually a great starting precip type for marginal temp storms.
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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
Yes I remember that one well, started as rain and changed to snow halfway through the storm! Is this one supposed to do that or go the opposite way?
We had over an inch of rain on the front end on the south shore and then over a foot of snow on the backend as the storm stalled out and did a loop! That night it was like blizzard conditions on a southerly wind and all the houses here had snow caked to their sides!
Yea you were probably far enough west to get a good backend thump. I think parts of eastern LI were mainly rain with 1-3 inches while CPK was like 15+ inches. I really think it’s too far out to know what this storm is going to do.
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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:
In any case the snow’s already gone here. Glad I’m an early riser for work lol.
Ok wondering if I got more than I think then because there was almost nothing outside at 8 am but maybe some of it already had melted.
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I think nws always starts conservative and thinks climo first. Even 2/27-2/28 they started off with nothing for the city. I think you kind of have to forecast climo first unless the evidence becomes too strong otherwise and thus far the models are showing far from strong support in any direction. Anyway just my take on it.
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22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
why isn't it showing much east of the city-- the map doesn't go out far enough in time to cover long island?
Rain. Has a 2010 snowicane and look to it with the cutoff but only one possible outcome many hours out.
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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:
Per my post above I think the 2nd wave around the 14th holds the most potential. The air mass ahead of the storm is much colder and would allow for snow in a weaker storm. Hopefully the EPS and GEPS are correct.
We usually do better with a colder air mass in place of course.
Agree wave 2 is the one I think with KU potential.
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Let’s let the next week or so play out before writing off winter. There’s massive potential especially storm 2 but could also be whiffs. I agree after March 15 the odds of significant snow especially NYC and south drop significantly.
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27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:
Om TWC they showed airports and snowfall. None of the NYC ones.
My guess is CPK did get some snow but because of the measurement gaps it melted before they measured.
In the end 2.2 vs. 2.7 = terrible winters no matter what.
CPK bad at measuring but in this case likely too warm inside the city for 0.6
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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:
NWS Upton is not buying any snow for Saturday. They are calling for rain even up here in Rockland County. No cold air
Four days out. If it’s light nonsense it will be rain though.
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March 2023
in New York City Metro
Posted
If you referring to this Sat I’m mostly giving up on a big storm idea and hoping for a few inches although def see how it could be something bigger.