Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Ok thats not way out to sea.
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It almost always hits the Toms River area (if it happens at all) but yes as weird as it sounds I'd actually be more optimistic near Toms River or the Hamptons than in NYC for this because they will be closer to the ocean storm dynamics.
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I like the optimism. We'll see. I know I'm being negative but I personally don't like the setup or see why people think they'll be heavy snow. This seems like light to moderate with maybe a quick heavy burst for like an hour early Saturday morning.
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LOL is my only reaction (sorry if inappropriate)
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I'm not expecting 2-3 inches where I live so you can imagine what I think of the 2-3 inches down to JFK unless you get Norluned lol.
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Looks almost the same as 2/28 except noticeably less north shore of Suffolk. I'm still having a hard time buying those totals in NYC and the immediate NW suburbs but hopefully Upton knows something I don't.
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2 am would be fine. That’s a 5 hour window for accumulation.
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I’m honestly worried NYC Metro won’t flip over until the morning. Maybe I’m too negative but I don’t like these latest trends with a warmer start to the storm that usually never ends well.
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Yea this seems to be where the models are going with this. Not gonna rely on the 3k NAM for hope.
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Obviously upton likes this event more than I do because I’m under a WWA and expecting an inch at best. I think you’ll have to get to the I287 corridor to see 1-3.
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If it doesn’t accumulate by 7:00 am it’s over for the city. Daytime snow above freezing no chance in the city. The recent models seem to delaying the changeover from rain to snow.
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I’m expecting less than an inch at y That’ll probably change soon imo.
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Close to throwing in the towel. This just likes a very crappy setup SE of I287. Someone somewhere may get Norlun surprise but not counting on it.
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3+ inches of qpf for the HV of mostly snow from the two storms. Probably too good to be true but should be a fun week up there.
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Nope the posted qpf maps before were all for storm 2 (didn't include the first storm).
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It would change to snow down to ACY but places near the coast could lose a lot of qpf to rain at first. I think we have to consider that as a reasonable possibility. If it’s a euro level bomb though could also legit backend snow 1-3 inch/hour rates.
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I’m pretty confident gfs is wrong about barely any storm. Beyond that I don’t know what will happen.
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The 12z runs were way better than the 0Z runs so for now yes, could still change a lot in either direction.
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The timing is part of the problem for the coast, it starts around 5 pm Monday so after a full day of warming. However I've sort of seen this setup before and it usually changes over faster than modeled but then mixes throughout the storm. As depicted this is probably sloppy at the coast and a bomb inland but we'll see if there are any trends.
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I mean just an absolute monster qpf bomb and sub 970 low, I would sign up for the Euro run today even if half the storm is rain imby. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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NW NJ and the HV just got Euro'ed. Coast flips to snow at the end. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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A track like that at that strength should produce for everyone in mid March, just not enough cold air I guess. Still could see it trending a little colder if it's really as strong as the Euro.
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Mixes at the coast by 120, huge hit inland. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Having a real hard time changing over at the coast even with a good track https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Snow to rain scenarios almost always seem to do better than rain to snow scenarios near the coast so not surprised this is trending worse without powerful dynamics.
