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MDScienceTeacher

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  1. MDScienceTeacher
    Thats what I thought but usual there is at least some logic in his pessimism.. that post made no sense.. unless he was comparing the last euro to the GFS MECS runs from last week..
  2. MDScienceTeacher
    hold on.. it is identical to the 00z:
  3. MDScienceTeacher
    I havent been paying that close attention.. what did it say 7-12 before and now it says 5-10?
  4. MDScienceTeacher
    this happens every time when we are waiting for it to start to snow. For some reason people start to panic and think that it is over before it starts
  5. MDScienceTeacher
    A snow day is a snow day. It is sacred in my opinion and shall not be infringed upon. Even if the technology is available for virtual alternatives.
  6. MDScienceTeacher
    Thank you! I was getting annoyed with the all the over cautiousness/ conservatism wrt to the total potential for this storm. Everyone seems to be stuck on 3-6/ 2-4 amounts. I think that It won’t take much to push this over 8 inches. So why not go all in?
  7. MDScienceTeacher
    This takes melting/ surface temperatures/ rates etc into consideration. A lot of people say that it is more useful than the regular total snowfall. I am convinced that Tt counts cold rain as snow for in total snowfall maps.. so positive snow depth is probably more reliable.
  8. MDScienceTeacher
    That would do it
  9. MDScienceTeacher
    I was never buying it and if it did show .75 inches qpf over 24 hours I would think that a lot of that is lost to melting especially during the day time. I would much rather see .4 inches in a 6 hour period than .75 over 24 hours.
  10. MDScienceTeacher
    Where do I sign?
  11. MDScienceTeacher
    I don’t think Baltimore city did as well… maybe 4-5 inches max
  12. MDScienceTeacher
    Yeah there was a band that set up over bwi and extended back in to Catonsville/ Elliott city . I got 7.5 (5 for the first part and 2.5 for the second part) which was more than I expected.
  13. MDScienceTeacher
    That’s one of the things that normies don’t understand. Most people I know are convinced that it just doesn’t snow around here any more.. I even saw a snowblower out there other day with a “free” sign on it. When I tell them that it has snowed plenty areas just to our south they look at me with confusion because in their mind snow is a thing of the past and entertaining the possibility that a lot of snow storms may have missed to our south is preposterous.
  14. MDScienceTeacher
    Oh.. I didnt realize that its him... I thought he moved away or something.
  15. MDScienceTeacher
    the issue is that big 1043 HP settling down out out of Canada. It is such a double edge sword. we need the cold air, but just enough not to suppress the wave.
  16. MDScienceTeacher
    Not sure if this will happen this time, but I remember set ups like this ending up wetter/ picking up more gulf moisture.
  17. MDScienceTeacher
    If this holds and it verifies just a little wetter/ more amped (and the surface temps stay cold enough for accumulation), it will be a warning level event for DC.
  18. MDScienceTeacher
    I thought the 6Z gave DC like 5 inches?
  19. MDScienceTeacher
    Are those dropsondes routine or do they only drop them during times of particularly active weather?
  20. MDScienceTeacher
    Holy Fuck
  21. MDScienceTeacher
    I had 7.5 and that was my high water mark since 2016.
  22. MDScienceTeacher
    IDK. The models have consistently shown a long duration moderate snow event for our area for the past 5 days. On the GFS, The 24 hour QPF totals have been btw 1 and 1.5 in the bullseye areas. Although its not HECs worthy, I feel like there is a little more boom potential.
  23. MDScienceTeacher
    Yeah I dont care if it is upper air/ long wave/ ensemble mean .. I just dont take anything serious outside of 180 hours... I just dont have the knowledge to take what the computer model is spitting out seriously. I am sure @psuhoffman does, so I will trust him. My kids watch a lot of weather youtube and there are guys who will literally step through every frame of the CFS out to six weeks and talk about it as if it is a forecast. Its a real disservice and not the intended use of those models.
  24. MDScienceTeacher
    The fact that this accounts for the first 7 inches in Baltimore completely calls the entire TT snow map calculation in to question.
  25. MDScienceTeacher
    What was similar was the run to run consistency and the global model agreement. Even if all of the ingredients werent actually on the table, the event certainly seemed to be one of those that lock in early and never waiver. Lets just hope this is the mid range slippage and things get back on track shortly.
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