MDScienceTeacher

I am sorry.. i see that there are some rules around this now.. I should have known. I am gonna get away from the computer for a while and get some exercise. Let’s see what happens later today

Thats the point I am trying to make.. there is a precedent for this fail mode.. my apologies for the graphic. I can take it down.

It is important that people understand how things work here wrt to snow.

Right.. and I dont know if many people remember but boxing day had a WSW for 6-12 inches along the Baltimore Washington Corridor. The models were showing warning level snow up until start time. We were on the fringe then and we are on the fringe now. the biggest issue with boxing day was Dry air. We had 8 hours of virgo followed by 8 hours of snow tv. Also, boxing day hit the tidewater epically hard, went our to sea and then turned the corner, retrograded and hit NYC metro. It literally went around us.

How does this happen. Five days ago, I said its a rug pull and I wouldnt let my self get pulled in again.. I am hopeless. And I dont want to hear the crap about setting expectations or how 6 inches of snow is great or how we werent going to get a HECs to begin with.. I dont want to hear it. Because I have news for you.. the fringe is looking boxing day-ish. there I said it. And I dont think I can take another day of snow tv while sitting on an winter storm warning for 6-12 inches... waiting for it to accumulate as someone to our south is getting 20 inches of snow. The impossible happened. for the first time in model history (ever) the GFS was right and every other model was wrong.

Other than the ICON, if this verifies than it is a total and complete fail. Two days ago, we had every single model in our camp except for the GFS. and several people said said that there is no way in hell every model would cave to the GFS.. and here we fucking are. I cant believe what I am seeing.. how could this happen again?

Does anyone know how to create the animated png? That is what I really wanted to post.. I didnt have the patience to figure it out.

6z

Last three Euros (not including 6 z)

6-7 is a fail given what the models have been showing… let’s just leave it at 10

Really ?? I thought the ensembles have the same number of grid points as the op? And each member just gets initialized with slightly screwed data to find out how reliable the run is?

I know we have said this many times in the past but we could easily see a slight Trend northward as we move closer to the event. Especially with a more amped storm. I am loving where we sit right now.

Come on man. It can easily snow a foot here. This winter has proven that winters are far from over for our region!

Have we made it past the dreaded Pacific Dropsonde data injection point yet? I dont know if you guys remember but the last storm was a 10-15 inch deal before @stormtracker jinxed it with the storm thread and Dropsonde data. At any rate, she looks healthy to me:

The fact that one is showing up is telling imho. That’s a signature of every big storm in the mid range. You start seeing this high total bullseyes right at the pivot point for the storm. I am just glad we are seeing one. btw did you see the surface temps are at around 20 for these ccb panels.

Yeah it looks like all systems go but I just want to give @Jisomething to think about.

I have been lurking since Boxing Day.. and I know that there is something to it.. like whenever it finally snows is inevitably when someone is leaving town. Anyway I don’t leave til night time. As long as I get to watch it fall I am good! And if I get a delay because of a foot or more of snow so be it!! It’s a win win for me.

@Ji the one time ever in history that the gfs pulls off a coup would be now right?

Yeah I have a flight leaving for Puerto Rico… been planned for months now

Can't wait!

Our last two storms had a period in the mid - long range that featured all of the major models showing MECS like totals in the Baltimore-Washington Corridor only to correct south once we got below 96 hours. Until I see different, I am going to be stay cautiously optimistic but be open to the fact that the Euro could do the old rug pull at any time..

Fixed it for you .. lol JK.. It definitely is a good sign though that we were able to get Wall to Wall cold this winter

Yup! My favorite ensemble plot is the individual members.. this type of agreement 180 hours out is a pretty big deal

So I am way up in northern hoco md and it has been steady light snow all day and we managed to break 3.. there wasn’t so much of a cutoff around here it was more gradual. Where are you located?

Hmmm.. I am in Elliott city and I am 3.5 already. I am really surprised you have gotten to 3 yet. Is it temp issues? Looks like plenty of returns down there