Itryatgolf70
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Everything posted by Itryatgolf70
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Keep in mind larry that we have a pretty intense niño ongoing and it would make sense for those numbers to be half-way accurate imo. As you know, we don't really want too negative PDO for winter if that would help us
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It will change, but it looks somewhat better currently
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Which maps of those carver?
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I really believe the models for November will be very telling on our ultimate likelihood of winter imo
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We will know sooner or later for sure. Here's hoping for a -ao/nao most of the winter
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Would it be good to see the IOD become lest positive or peak in November? Is that even a possibility?
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Maybe we do want November to be cold. Not sure. I know some winters that were cold in November and blowtorched in actual winter. I would take a great pacific to nullify a -nao/ao. Any winter.
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John, I would take every year a very warm fall and flip to a very cold winter soon after because unless you live in elevation, it's tuff to get winter weather in the south. So much timing is required
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Me hoping the nao is more negative than people believe, especially if the pacific is more hostile this winter.
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Cape, because it is young man lol
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Ideally, don't we want 3.4 region warmer than others? I mean for a better shot at a colder winter?
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I'm skeptical but we shall see. I think November outlooks will be telling, especially the European model.
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Imo, if you go to sst anomalies at tropical tidbits website, it will give you a more accurate representation of the current regions numbers every 6 hours. That's what I use and have found it pretty good https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/
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Central and eastern, mainly east of the rockies
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If you want a blowtorch lol. -epo puts a ridge over Alaska and brings the cold typically. -wpo sends it from Siberia down to Alaska via cross polar flow, which is my favorite!!
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You have to admit that the -pdo being this negative, coupled with a pretty intense el niño is interesting
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I believe if we get another RNA or great episodes of it this winter, we will be doing alot of can kicking down the road imo.
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Is it too early to know where it most likely will end up this winter?
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He never informed me of that when we spoke two weeks ago. He said east to west niño most likely outcome
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I'm hoping November is warmer than normal and then flips to colder in December moving forward. I know all niños aren't the same, but 2009 it was warmer in November and then the rest was history for the most part
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Imo, I think we would want to see the niño become more central based, or modoki style to feel more confident on a colder outcome for winter
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It looks like we will need some help from mother nature so we may have a chance at it being colder than most think currently
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So do we hope the -pdo don't couple for winter and it trends less negative or both for a less warm winter?
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The epo is the king of cold. I will take that over an ao or nao anytime! Occasionally the epo can get negative that it sends a cold front to Cuba.
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My Winter Outlook for 2023-24
Itryatgolf70 replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The issue imo is the sample size is pretty small to compare this winter compared to previous winters
