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Itryatgolf70

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Everything posted by Itryatgolf70

  1. Itryatgolf70
    We usually see one at some point in March but this year it looks transient
  2. Itryatgolf70
    A SSW has occurred and is effecting us this time. Cohen said main pv will be on our side. Late season cool shot.
  3. Itryatgolf70
    What's interesting is the 12z gfs don't show it but the off runs do lol. Fun to look at it I suppose.
  4. Itryatgolf70
    Reason I mentioned if u had old cansips maps is because the three niñas in a row wasn't bad. Wasn't crazy warm. It would be interesting to know if the cansips had 21-22 east based early on. 21-22 was ultimately east based, despite it being strong was still pretty cold, especially after December. At least here. I just feel if if this next niña is central based, it may be another long winter lol. Most niñas are front loaded if it does get cold, but of course the exception to the rules lol.
  5. Itryatgolf70
    Carver, do you have the early archived cansips from 20-21 through 22-23 niña winter to see how it did before winter started each those years?
  6. Itryatgolf70
    The Feb outlook should be available soon. I feel that based is more important than strength imo. As crazy as this sounds, we want a +qbo and higher sunspots. Typically, they can correlate with cold patterns. They do better with niña usually if they set up.
  7. Itryatgolf70
    Decent week of cold weather and a little snow was good, but hated to see winter end after that but we didn't know it yet lol
  8. Itryatgolf70
    Does anyone have or don't mind sharing the sst distribution maps for the 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23 niñas? Thanks in advance
  9. Itryatgolf70
    That's shocking that the eps busted that bad! I guess the strat didn't connect to the troposphere. It usually does but not this time.
  10. Itryatgolf70
    If the niña is east based this next winter, I feel we will have a few strong cold shots. If it's more central based, may be more difficult.
  11. Itryatgolf70
    Larry, I have a question. Did the eps do good with the ao forecast? Typically, it usually has a good handle on teleconnections from what I've noticed.
  12. Itryatgolf70
    Winter is probably over except higher elevations like jaxjagman alluded to. My thoughts are already on next winter lol. Imo, if the niña is central based, or cooler in central pacific, game over for most except the west. If the niña, regardless of strength, is east based or cooler off peru, then we should see episodes of cold. Most niñas are front loaded. It was very surprising to see the -pdo as strong as it was this niño
  13. Itryatgolf70
    If there is convection around the dateline, the mjo shouldn't be going again towards the mc. It didn't do it in January, especially the first half. Very interesting this winter and I imagine some forecasters got the winter correct, despite alot of conflicting signals
  14. Itryatgolf70
    It won't matter except higher elevations if it even gets cold and snows. Always the exception I suppose. A true mjo phase 1-2 models willing definitely adjust.
  15. Itryatgolf70
    Does anyone know where I can access old gfs and or euro precip maps? Like 5 days leading into a certain winter storm and what the models were showing during that period. I used to have the site but lost it lol
  16. Itryatgolf70
    If the niña is central based this next winter, we may have another warm winter most likely so we should hope that it's more east based, similar to this niño currently. If it's east based, most likely December will be warm but after that it may turn colder. Looking at the big picture very early look
  17. Itryatgolf70
    If it's that late, other than higher elevations, it won't matter for most of us. I've been saying it probably will get cold again in March. Most are ready for spring now at this point
  18. Itryatgolf70
    I don't think many thought January would be the coldest month this winter, especially considering all the mentions about February being the coldest month. This was an interesting niño for sure.
  19. Itryatgolf70
    I'm still somewhat intrigued in how the SSW plays out to see if we have one last big cold blast here. Not your typical niño this winter like many have alluded to
  20. Itryatgolf70
    If the qbo is positive and higher sunspots, that can allow it to be colder, especially in niñas. If the niña is central based next winter, probably another warm winter. If it's east based, probably a version of 21-22 winter. All speculation at this point. We were very lucky to see January cold.
  21. Itryatgolf70
    March can provide ULL that produce snow, which have been the biggest snowstorms every here in my area during March. If we don't have a cold connection, it don't matter at that point.
  22. Itryatgolf70
    It wouldn't suprise me if we get a very late season cold snap due to niño collapse. Could be wrong. By then, it's too late for winter weather except in higher elevations. I'm rooting for svr weather in our area by then lol.
  23. Itryatgolf70
    I think 15-16 was a little colder than this winter bc the pdo was positive then. It made a subtle difference but still big difference.
  24. Itryatgolf70
    If we see a strong niño or niña moving forward, almost a guarantee it's going to be warm. Next winter will be interesting. I think best case scenario if its east based, which it was in 21-22 winter. Most niñas are front loaded anyways. We seem to default to niñas most winters these days. I would like a neutral winter soon lol
  25. Itryatgolf70
    Cold air is just non-existent. Been overseas most all winter.
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