Itryatgolf70
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March/ Spring mid-long range
Itryatgolf70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
We usually see one at some point in March but this year it looks transient -
March/ Spring mid-long range
Itryatgolf70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
A SSW has occurred and is effecting us this time. Cohen said main pv will be on our side. Late season cool shot. -
March/ Spring mid-long range
Itryatgolf70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
What's interesting is the 12z gfs don't show it but the off runs do lol. Fun to look at it I suppose. -
March/ Spring mid-long range
Itryatgolf70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Reason I mentioned if u had old cansips maps is because the three niñas in a row wasn't bad. Wasn't crazy warm. It would be interesting to know if the cansips had 21-22 east based early on. 21-22 was ultimately east based, despite it being strong was still pretty cold, especially after December. At least here. I just feel if if this next niña is central based, it may be another long winter lol. Most niñas are front loaded if it does get cold, but of course the exception to the rules lol. -
March/ Spring mid-long range
Itryatgolf70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Carver, do you have the early archived cansips from 20-21 through 22-23 niña winter to see how it did before winter started each those years? -
February 2024 mid/ long range
Itryatgolf70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The Feb outlook should be available soon. I feel that based is more important than strength imo. As crazy as this sounds, we want a +qbo and higher sunspots. Typically, they can correlate with cold patterns. They do better with niña usually if they set up.- 750 replies
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February 2024 mid/ long range
Itryatgolf70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Decent week of cold weather and a little snow was good, but hated to see winter end after that but we didn't know it yet lol- 750 replies
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February 2024 mid/ long range
Itryatgolf70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Does anyone have or don't mind sharing the sst distribution maps for the 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23 niñas? Thanks in advance- 750 replies
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That's shocking that the eps busted that bad! I guess the strat didn't connect to the troposphere. It usually does but not this time.
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If the niña is east based this next winter, I feel we will have a few strong cold shots. If it's more central based, may be more difficult.
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Larry, I have a question. Did the eps do good with the ao forecast? Typically, it usually has a good handle on teleconnections from what I've noticed.
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February 2024 mid/ long range
Itryatgolf70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Winter is probably over except higher elevations like jaxjagman alluded to. My thoughts are already on next winter lol. Imo, if the niña is central based, or cooler in central pacific, game over for most except the west. If the niña, regardless of strength, is east based or cooler off peru, then we should see episodes of cold. Most niñas are front loaded. It was very surprising to see the -pdo as strong as it was this niño- 750 replies
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February 2024 mid/ long range
Itryatgolf70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
If there is convection around the dateline, the mjo shouldn't be going again towards the mc. It didn't do it in January, especially the first half. Very interesting this winter and I imagine some forecasters got the winter correct, despite alot of conflicting signals- 750 replies
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February 2024 mid/ long range
Itryatgolf70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
It won't matter except higher elevations if it even gets cold and snows. Always the exception I suppose. A true mjo phase 1-2 models willing definitely adjust.- 750 replies
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February 2024 mid/ long range
Itryatgolf70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Does anyone know where I can access old gfs and or euro precip maps? Like 5 days leading into a certain winter storm and what the models were showing during that period. I used to have the site but lost it lol- 750 replies
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