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AtlanticWx

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  1. AtlanticWx
    oops, used the wrong level here are the proper march 2018 and dec 2010 maps march 2018 dec 2010
  2. AtlanticWx
    analogs aren't always the greatest thing tbh for example, everyone said dec 2010 and march 2018 were analogs but compare the H5 maps dec 2022 dec 2010 march 2018 they do look similar in some aspects, but the main difference i'm seeing is the troughing off the EC coast also, march 2018 & dec 2010 were a lot snowier for the NE as a whole than this pattern
  3. AtlanticWx
    yep! here you go
  4. AtlanticWx
    nice signal this far out, we'll see what happens
  5. AtlanticWx
    using the januaries of those years to create an H5 plot: and removing Jan of 1985 which was really the only good Jan in those winters therefore being an outlier, you get this H5 composite imo, the pattern expected into jan won't really look like this. sure, we get a -PNA in the first week but as the PAC jet retracts everything should retrogade west giving us an EC trough, +PNA and aluetian low
  6. AtlanticWx
    one thing i particularly like about the upcoming pattern is that we don't have to worry about much going wrong. the pacific jet is currently over extended and we actually want a retraction which is quite easy to get in a niña iirc as long as that ULL near alaska retrogades and become an aleutian low, we're in business for january. ❄️❄️
  7. AtlanticWx
    deep creek is packed with snow rn, just went so can confirm. if you wanna feel less snow-starved, just go during or right after what seems like a pretty dynamic system passing over us bc upslope will probably be best at that time. we planned this vacation a month in advance so we just got lucky with timing, but it was snowing pretty much every day since we got here from the 23rd and stopped snowing last night theres like 6-12" of snowpack too
  8. AtlanticWx
    @psuhoffman do you know which years were the ones you used when Manchester MD had no snow in December as analogs? i'm curious to see what the H5 patterns were in those years during january
  9. AtlanticWx
    can confirm it is FRIGID in deep creek right now, snowing pixie dust right now too
  10. AtlanticWx
    switched over to snow here in germantown, hopefully more precip builds west of us
  11. AtlanticWx
    how is that dry lmao, literal 40 dbz snow on changeover. if you can't enjoy that, you should move to buffalo bc your expectations are way too high.
  12. AtlanticWx
    hrrr just keeps getting better and better for tomorrow. not sure why is there is some zr bc the whole column is below freezing so best to ignore that and think of it as snow
  13. AtlanticWx
    yeah it definitely will diminish a bit, but the parameters around our area support a squall. whether that be rain or snow, we'll see but models have been pointing out a pretty hefty line of rain and snow around here and checking soundings, some of the soundings support thundersnow around here
  14. AtlanticWx
    from the last few runs of HRRR, the trends i'm seeing are more robust backend precip. new hrrr at the top, old hrrr at the bottom
  15. AtlanticWx
    snowing near VA/NC line rn, was snow even expected for them? regardless, good signs for snow prospects fs
  16. AtlanticWx
    good news for snow lovers W of i95!
  17. AtlanticWx
    fwiw the R/S line drops back east too, with bursts of snow across moco/hoco, temps are riding the 0C line based on soundings so a degree difference can result in an overperformer for a lot of ppl. getting good vibes from this one
  18. AtlanticWx
    32/22
  19. AtlanticWx
    temps seem to be running colder than forecasted and each subsequent HRRR is trending colder; don't wanna sound like a weenie but perhaps an overperformer W of I95? hrrr now has snow bursting across moco
  20. AtlanticWx
    given the trends seen on euro and multiple meso models, that initial surge of wintry precip could crawl east enough for snow lovers W of I95, let's see 00z and the trends thereafter
  21. AtlanticWx
    would the recent east trends help in maximizing upslope?
  22. AtlanticWx
    we could get a decent pattern sometime soon again after the mild Pacific air floods CONUS when the jet retracts, giving us a decent pattern with a +PNA and EC trough before it becomes shit again wondering when thatll happen tho
  23. AtlanticWx
    Really exciting lmao, I'm hoping I'm able to get to Deep Creek earlier around 1 PM rather than 7 PM to avoid all the snow and to be able to experience it.
  24. AtlanticWx
    It'll be interesting to see the upslope potential after this storm passes by in the mountains. Probably only excited about upslope because I'm headed to Wisp from the 23rd to the 26th haha
  25. AtlanticWx
    We're 7 days out, they'll have time to phase out the cutters and tbh ensembles have been flip flopping on support for a cutter - can't really ride or die w/ one run.
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