AtlanticWx

all of it besides like 0.1-0.3” is from that 15th storm

yeah no need for a freak out tbh CMCE kinda got worse tho but it has like 20 members it’s quite underdispersive

digital blue!!

so many indies smoke us between EPS, GEFS & GEPS. two of them have like 30-40” here lmao. obviously won’t verify but tells you the ceiling of the 15th threat

6z icon too

gefs continues steps towards eps, nearly identical at day 7/8 now

i don’t get why this forum is so negative when tracking storms. yes we’ve had a lot of misses but not every storm works out. imo tracking is really fun and always coming in with low expectations for each storm just kinda ruins the whole vibe of winter storm tracking yk. even if it misses u won’t be happy you were right that nothing happened, just enjoy tracking while you can even if the storm suddenly becomes a buffalo blizzard or a fish storm no hate just an observation with the mojo of this forum compared to say 33andrain

honestly we just need everything to trend slower and amped which it’s doing rn imo always on the screwed side when things trend slower and more amped but for once, we’re in the clear ig

eps is even crazier. lowkey exciting

no need to freak out over an op run 10 days out gefs is trending to eps in all ways lmao

an op model 10 days out

even a 4-8” event would be awesome, better to focus on the individual events than spending sm time worrying about whether the season will reach average snow or not

the fact that this forum was ready to jump off ship yesterday and is excited today probably says a lot about how one day of model runs doesn’t define our winter no hate, just an observation lmao

airmass is shit but we still do have cold air aloft and the MSLP anomaly shows a decent canadian high, as long as that trends stronger w due time in which most cases it does, it could be a storm to track

yeah, tho i think the entire month of january is prob our window bc the 6th-10th threats are thread the needle but could work out just our best hopes are with the 14th onwards a lot of people are discounting march tho which is surprising since doesnt dc average more snow in march than december now? correct me if i'm wrong tho sun angle is the notably big problem in march but we can still score in march enough for a not completely shit winter

tbf the jet retraction that we're rooting for for a good pattern in jan will eventually have the pac jet retract all the way meaning -PNA/SER for atl the beginning of february and probably most of it given niña climo for february

pressure maps have a decent signal for a 50/50 low; a 50/50 low simply won't show up on ensembles 15 days out tbh

the more the 7th system continues to amp up the higher rates we'll have and possibly more cold air to drag in for colder 2m temps and colder air aloft? perhaps by 18z we could see some digital blue if trends continue

pros and cons of the event near the 7th: pros: we're working with one shortwave here and idk if this is confirmation bias but this winter the common theme has been for shortwaves to trend more and more amped as we get closer. more amped + more neg tilt would let this trailing wave drag more cold air in while also being stronger and more robust meaning snow for many of us cons: the antecedent airmass is pretty marginal and the cold air the cutter before drags in is kinda shit because of how marginal everything is. as long as our storm gets stronger though we should (?) be fine

dca

Using snowfall for analogs doesn't really have weight imo, previous snowfall doesn't change the current pattern so even if you had 10" of snow in December, I don't see the weight it would have on the future patterns. Using teleconnections for analogs makes sense though

74% of our snow comes after January 15th which is a rough eyeball for our "pattern change" Has using snowfall in previous months as an analog for the rest of the winter worked before? Genuine question, not trying to come at anyone for their methods but I don't think it's fair to label this winter as a shut out when we still aren't at our climatologically favored period.

and honestly there are a lot of different pieces of energy rounding the ridge and getting ejected here, something has to score around here definitely feeling bullish about janaury

honestly, we need a good pacific way more than we need a good atlantic jan 2022 was a prime example of great pacific but shit atlantic

i would 100% take another repeat of jan 2022 last year. so many storms to track and while Jan 3 did bust pretty badly here, it was such a fun tracking period with storm after storm