AtlanticWx
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Everything posted by AtlanticWx
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i mean if we really wanted to analyze that look verbatim it'd be a miller B transferring off the coast bc of that monster 50/50 low
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don't look at the 18z gfs for 384 hours out
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2 inches for an ensemble mean where all of it falls between the 23rd and 30th is a good run. 50-60% chance of >1" that far out is pretty good but ok
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the 27th setup is actually quite simple, j a wave sliding along a boundary. the complex part ab it is where the boundary would setup as a change in the two or three storms before it and whether or not they trend weaker or stronger could mean less/more cold air ergo setting up the boundary somewhere else
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yeah as CAPE said that timeframe from 27th onwards looks interesting. and heights have def been lowering past few runs on GEFS towards the end of jan continued trends should squash the se ridge enough for a nice overrunning pattern around here & we're still 10 days out so a lot can change either for the good or bad
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the key takeaway i've been seeing from ensembles is that TPV lobe trending stronger; the stronger it trends the closer we get to a CMCE type look
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it's something
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if the troughing near 50 N/50 W trends stronger which it looks like it has been, that should be enough for CAD events here.
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this forum needs some glimmer of hope so while weeklies are quite inaccurate 30 days out you can see the effect of the SSWE as shown on the weeklies towards the latter half of feb se ridge seems to become more muted and cold seems to slowly press down. again, don't take that as a forecast just stating what i see verbatim
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GEFS also has a ~2" mean for much of the area with just the 27th threat, which is pretty big this far out
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step up from past runs we had snow here lmao
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surprised no one looked at the 12z gfs, looks a lot more wintry compared to previous runs
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exactly this, we live in dc you genuinely cannot expect every event to be some crazy all snow event
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on the bright side some seasonals have average temps in feb which is saying something?
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marchs been pretty reliable recently tbh, i wouldn't count it out. a solid 3-5" snowstorm like last year would make a lot of ppl happy
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snow in march is still snow, idk why everyone's so picky ab snow
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we don't do complicated around here
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The LR pattern around the 27th looks pretty favorable for something around here if a wave rides up that boundary along the SE ridge.
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exactly, js setting urself up for failure tbh
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| 18z gefs looking a lot more like EPS/GEPS in the long range now. fwiw the baroclinic boundary might still be too far north on that map but we can certaintly still produce in that fs. 18z gefs looking a lot more enthusiastic snow-wise on indies but probably best to refrain from posting that.
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i understand where ur coming from tbh but for me atl snow is snow so i'll take whatever i can get. living in dc and wanting all snow events prob won't end well so atl imo i just hope for whatever we can get
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for those hoping for a big one with this pattern, probably gonna be a long stretch to hope for that. however, i think this is more of a CAD pattern where we get snow -> ZR/sleet -> rain events which can rack up pretty fast and bring us to at least not well below normal. i think all of us here would take a nice 1-3"/2-4"/3-6" event out of desperation lmao the pattern does look kinda similar to feb 2021 imo, w/ less amplitude ofc
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WAR can help us too sometimes tbh, really just don't want it building in the 50/50 area as PSU said which looks to be the case as of now
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tbh, this has nothing to do with the current patterns and is rlly just my opinion, but id be surprised if we break 10" at any of the airports this year without a decent storm imo we might get 2016-17 similar totals at all airports (and also possibly a snowy march based on a preliminary look at it)
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not much support from EPS & GEPS tho. GEPS has a transient SE ridge but we turn to cold again w/ no end in sight at the end of the run
