AtlanticWx
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Everything posted by AtlanticWx
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gfs seems a bit held back but weaker with the NS rn, let's see how this goes (hour 66)
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we're so focused on the icon we forgot the gfs started
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looking at the glass half full, fuck yeah looking at the glass half empty, bullseye 5 days out never works out
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it can stay where it is now, no more nw shifts
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classic look
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icon's gonna be NW compared to 0z, idk if i like it moving NW so early but whatever
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perhaps ICON goes even more S? we'll see, at hour 84 rn
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this would be a weenie's dream, going into 00z hoping this happens!
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yeah true but what fun is there in tracking if u have a pessimistic mindset
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it was one bad eps run tbf
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exactly what i'm thinking, i think gfs or euro is gonna cave and i'm gonna go with euro but i'm hoping not my bets are: gfs doesn't budge cmc becomes the new euro and slams us euro goes NW
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if all ensembles go warmer at 00z, then i'd be a little bit worried. 00z is gonna be fun tonight
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if it's any consolation eps got way warmer from 06z compared to 0z before being colder again
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if i had to guess how this goes i'm guessing from 00z onwards we get bad trends that set us back miles before incrementally shifting south giving us false hope but ultimately we get screwed over
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i mean you can tell by the increase in 850mb temps it'll be worse fs
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euro control looks very nice to say the least but if this ends up trending NW we're all screwed lmao
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nah eps changed the same way euro did and eps at hour 144 is pretty horrid. snow cut back by 1.1" compared to last run and 850mb temps are ~3° warmer
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18z euro looks like a nod towards gfs at the upper levels at hour 90, but idk if i'm wrong or if it actually did
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just calculated it for reference in case it's useful to you, the 12z ensembles snowfall probs (would use 18z but it isn't out on meteograms yet) at IAD IAD probs: >1" - 47% >6" - 31%
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i mean honestly CMC has been shifting S and while euro has been incrementally going N, EPS has been going south
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js for fun
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to think this is the lowest output from an ensemble for our threat
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gefs definitely looks south! will post in a min
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gefs run to run change, liking what i see so far (faster piece, lower heights in the 50/50 region and slightly more blocking)
