AtlanticWx
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Everything posted by AtlanticWx
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if euro/eps/geps improve like cmc did or hold i wouldn't be worried
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has there been a reason why december and march have pretty much swapped places recently? march has been very snowy recently (since 2012-13, 8 winters at KIAD had >1" in march and 5 of them had >5")
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what??
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it's good that the eps is flip flopping from nw to se ever since 00z yesterday, we're at a good place rn
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6z eps was a nod to the gefs/gfs in the sense that it went nw but really there were so many members that slammed us just the nw camp skewing it
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there have to be some amazing members in there, overall it looks like there's less spread but the same as 0z, will post snow map when it comes out
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what's interesting is that the 6z eps continues the trend of more separation between the NS and our actual trough. gonna be interesting to see what it does
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looking at eps from 0z -> 6z, at hour 84 looks like our main trough is weaker and maybe digging a bit more while our NS is a bit faster, gonna see how this plays out in a second
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and 06z shifted favorably from 0z too. at hour 90, the shortwave is less amped and faster and the NS is stronger + faster - good to see!
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taking a glance at the 06z cmc just for fun, below is the 6z cmc compared to 0z - it looks virtually the same but maybe the western trough is a little held back but overall its the same which is encouraging
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looking at h5 this is exactly what we want tbh, our shortwave is making a pass right under the NS. sure it might start off as rain like the icon shows but it's dynamic enough and would pass south enough to be snow if we're extrapolating it. 06z icons actually faster which could be a good thing
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eps shifting se at 0z was good, hoping it keeps it up
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if my posts are affecting ur mood then that's on you lmao and i said how the icon and cmc being great were good and bad in their own ways respectively so
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my bad for posting model outputs and then giving my take on the general trend this could go in!
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gefs looks nw so far, but maybe it's good we get our nw trend now rather than later?
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with the mood in here you'd think that we went from snow to cold rain on every model lmao
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a gut feeling that things downtrend from here on out but i'll 100% take this!!
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what would be perfect is a uniform south and colder shift, then the mid range NW trend will do the trick
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canadian's gonna come in awesome - but not what we want 5 days out lmao
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dare i say cmc looks better so far
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onto cmc, the trough seems more held back so far
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i feel like the model that's the worst is always super consistent this winter
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i was wrong, NS seems like it's gonna interfere less this run.. is this the run we've been waiting for?
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think gfs might go more NW this run, NS seems more held back overall
