AtlanticWx

NAM had positive changes with our vort & confluence starting at hour 48. If this means anything for 0z runs, we're set. Confluence def lifted by 48 w/ trough buckling more -> more interaction by the period of interest

I honestly think we want the TPV lobe to hold back a little earlier instead of pushing east. The further west it is, the more interaction it'll have with the southern piece and capture it properly, just like we saw with the Euro solutions last night

yeah on the bright side, euro is one of the only models with the kicker literally starting to wrap around our system lmao

yeah i wonder why this is the case. is it because ensembles are more low res besides eps and eps is the most juiced out of them?

i mean it did, that's what caused it to be better further south and worse further north. good for us now, but we wouldn't want this to become a trend. idt it will tho so we'll see

euro made two negative shifts this run looking at it. by hour 84, there's less interaction between the two waves. additionally, the kicker is more destructive, stringing it out but stringing it out too late for it to affect us.

when are we getting a thread? after the gfs cave

6z euro somehow looked even better with the capture of the southern piece holy shit

4" here in south gtown, hit forecast with a few hours of snow left to go. let's get it

2.6 in GTown.

Can a met explain why HRRR is so much warmer than every other model with sfc temps?

Honestly getting really excited for this. Didn't think we would score in February, let alone stare down a possible 6-8"+ storm area wide

qpf max went up, i like this run more than 6z. just went south due to noise with the confluence which doesn't get sampled till tomorrow anyways. i like this change

eyeballing more than just a dusting now, all surfaces caving in gtown. 33.2°

wtf i didn't realize soundings looked like this