AtlanticWx

nam with QUITE the jump west of our NS energy by hour 48. significantly more stretching of the TPV and looks more conducive to break off. hope that's something with 00z models and not just the nam being the nam

agreed with this, but fwiw, it is JUST the euro and aifs doing this. every other model made significant strides to a more amped solution

will say watching that NS pivot is insane and i know we're all burned by these late phasers, but you can't not like that NS practically pivoting around itself and swinging up. i like what im seeing. and considering how our NS for this storm decided to buckle a calm three states west, i'm not too worried about getting this storm to buckle as well

it's actually a hair west with our baja low by H21. after already being the most held back

Eyeball estimates but 1-1.3 in Germantown, MD. We've gotten absolutely lucky with the banding today. Safe to say we've overperformed our forecasts

hrrr has continued to trend north EVERY run without fail. surely this means something lmao

we're seeing two amazing trends happen in tandem with our energy. 1. our shortwave is trending slower/deeper than cams initially anticipated. take a look at the hrrr trend over OK with our shortwave. 2. our midwest vort that digs and raises heights is digging more than expected over nebraska and looks more consolidated. these two trends (can't paste gifs bc of the file limit, unfortunately) should help lift our storm more north than expected. feeling very optimistic about this one, our only fail mode is really something that's just dissipitating as we get closer. more boom than bust potential with this one imo, especially near the metro.

NAM had positive changes with our vort & confluence starting at hour 48. If this means anything for 0z runs, we're set. Confluence def lifted by 48 w/ trough buckling more -> more interaction by the period of interest

I honestly think we want the TPV lobe to hold back a little earlier instead of pushing east. The further west it is, the more interaction it'll have with the southern piece and capture it properly, just like we saw with the Euro solutions last night

yeah on the bright side, euro is one of the only models with the kicker literally starting to wrap around our system lmao

yeah i wonder why this is the case. is it because ensembles are more low res besides eps and eps is the most juiced out of them?

i mean it did, that's what caused it to be better further south and worse further north. good for us now, but we wouldn't want this to become a trend. idt it will tho so we'll see

euro made two negative shifts this run looking at it. by hour 84, there's less interaction between the two waves. additionally, the kicker is more destructive, stringing it out but stringing it out too late for it to affect us.

when are we getting a thread? after the gfs cave

6z euro somehow looked even better with the capture of the southern piece holy shit