DarkSharkWX
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Everything posted by DarkSharkWX
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We're already in an -EAMT that's retracting the jet
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It will take some time to recover from the mild Pacific air though
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For the first half of Jan it seems to me that there will be an -EAMT event, retracting the extremely extended Pacific jet. But then we get another +EAMT(HP moving through east Asia) that starts extending the jet again into a spot thats more ideal for western ridging / aleutian low. Far out, but we'll see what happens when we get closer to it. Last time in December what happened was that the +EAMT was strong and overextended the jet.
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50/50 low back on GFS lol
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NAM 3km shows a robust burst of snow with -4 omega right over the DGZ with saturated profile, indicating optimal dendrite growth. If this verified it would really be coming down, and there would be accumulating snow. This is a very good sounding, other than the marginal temps riding 0C isotherm. With dynamic cooling the ptype would be snow. Will send positive SD change when its done loading on TT.
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Fr lmao
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And at least when we do get a good winter/good storm after all these winters it's going to feel soo satisfying
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Dw we will get an above average winter soon, while yes our climo is decreasing, I think weve just been sort of unlucky these past 7 years with all of the ninas we've had.
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even with a 50/50 low it becomes a cutter probably because the storm is more amped(phases over plains), but the 11th being more north and closer to a phase is a step in the right direction as well as stronger confluence, hopefully it continues and gets picked up by other guidance. CMC looks like coastal rainstorm obv wouldnt take op runs too seriously because they are op runs and we are 7-8d out
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11th storm is more north closer to phasing this run on GFS lol, we'll see if ensembles pick up on this
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hrrr is nice
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Gefs stayed steady
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Doesn't the gefs have a lag to changes?
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But adding onto this - even if there is when it goes onshore we will get a lot more data of the system rather than it just being in the PAC
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Namd
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Don't think so, at least in east Pacific, prob should ask someone else with more knowledge on that than me tho lmao
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By sampling I mean when the energy got the 11th moves onshore and that data gets inserted into the models
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while its still 8 days out and we won't know until the 11th energy gets sampled and sent into guidancde, i would still lower expectations just so that if samplation proves to be bad, you won't be as disappointed. on the bright side, at least GFS/CMC and their ensembles improved today. winter is not over after this storm too, and in the shorter range we have the 8th-9th threat that snuck up on us for the potential to be some of the region's first measurable snow
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-ENSO/la nina is not the reason for this, we are in a very nino pattern right now with overextended jet... thats a nino problem not a nina lmao
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This will prob continue until 11th data/energy gets sampled... until then lets hope things trend more favorable in general
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is this the part where everyone freaks out over one op run?
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Onto the EPS, let's see what it does. If it improves the main takeaway from this suite should be that all ensembles improved and ignoring the op runs(at this range anyways). The op runs are possible outcomes to what will happen tho fs
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Hopefully gefs follows the leader
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Gfs looks better with more confluence
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We won't know what happens with this storm until the 11th energy comes onshore in 2-4 days
