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DarkSharkWX

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Everything posted by DarkSharkWX

  1. DarkSharkWX
    99% correlation so its very good to see a -nao setting up rn
  2. DarkSharkWX
    the events to make the -NAO occur downstream are in the short range now p sure
  3. DarkSharkWX
    the pattern setting up on models seems similar to dec 2002 early dec 2002 pattern for reference
  4. DarkSharkWX
    even eric webb is on board now lmao
  5. DarkSharkWX
    where do you get these maps? when i try looking them up i only get the cpc subsurface anomaly maps
  6. DarkSharkWX
    new c3s, warm dec, transitional jan, and great feb
  7. DarkSharkWX
    well AN
  8. DarkSharkWX
    does anyone have the updated daily pdo graph? these ones
  9. DarkSharkWX
    new gfs is weenie af
  10. DarkSharkWX
    how exactly would the +IOD enforce forcing over mjo 8/1/2 instead of 6/7 over the io/mc? j curious
  11. DarkSharkWX
    new nmme looks good fwiw
  12. DarkSharkWX
    thats not that big of a deal lmao if that pattern came to fruition we'd still likely get something
  13. DarkSharkWX
    forcing west/on dateline
  14. DarkSharkWX
    new cansips looks great
  15. DarkSharkWX
  16. DarkSharkWX
    yeah, pretty sure some of them we're predicting a weak-moderate nino last year for this winter and we all know how that turned out
  17. DarkSharkWX
    I don't think we'll get a super nino, especially coming off of a 3 year nina and a -PDO, theres also usually some time in between super events, 1982 -> 1997 -> 2015 (technically 1972/73 was a strong, not super nino cause its ONI was only barely at super criteria for 2 months, not 3)
  18. DarkSharkWX
    2018-19 wasn't that bad, AN for IAD/DCA and near normal for BWI
  19. DarkSharkWX
    if we do get a east based nino in the winter, it's not gonna be because its east-based now
  20. DarkSharkWX
    we'd need a 26.2" average over the next 7 years to keep IAD at its average of 21", mean from 2000-2015 is 22.4"(median 14.4") compared to mean of 11.0"(median 11.9") from 2017-2023
  21. DarkSharkWX
    nino 1+2 in strong nino territory
  22. DarkSharkWX
    why are east-based ninos bad? like what exactly does it do
  23. DarkSharkWX
    positive snow depth change
  24. DarkSharkWX
    the time frame around march 18th looks to be SS
  25. DarkSharkWX
    fwiw 18z hrrr looked nice for wave 1
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