DarkSharkWX

nam vs euro, all abt the tilt

speaking of i think this is an expansion north a bit lmao(the cyan anyways)

modeling is atrocious with TPV setups and ULLs but maybe until tmrw night? id greatly lower expectations though ofc

i was talking to cody snell yesterday(WPC met) and he said similar things relating to the CIPS analogs being further north. he implied that he was expecting a northern trend(not a huge jump to the NW though) but he said to expect some southern shifts in the next forecast cycles. as you've said multiple times it seems a bit odd that this is so suppressed with a UL strength like that tracking relatively north

Although the Euro has been trending better in some aspects(a more amped upper low, kicker more held back -> more +PNA), the problem here is the tilt. It has been trending more neutrally tilted which is a problem, additionally, the flow out ahead of the TPV lobe is more suppressive, and the southern stream shortwave isn't digging as much, leading to a more OTS solution. Ideally you'd want to see the confluence lift up a bit with the SS digging more for a less flat flow. We'll need an earlier, more robust phase with less flat flow. Looking at old runs that were good for us, the +PNA was good but the key difference was that the trough was more buckled since the SS wave was able to dig more leading to a more negative tilt. The TPV wasn't squashing out the flow in front of it because of this, so now in future runs we'd want to see a relax of more confluence and more buckling of the trough via the SS wave being deeper, and maybe slow down a little bit to raise heights out east and turn the trough negative. I don't think the +PNA is the issue here on its own; its a phenomenal change, its the fact that there's other changes which are bad vis a vis the SS wave which makes the flow out ahead of the TPV lobe worse, so that's why despite the Pacific "improving", surface is considerably worse.

v day 2007, but also some of the higher end 80s storms

WOAH

thanks for the suggestion, looking at era5 looks like it did have a tpv phase - kicker vort dug and amplified the western ridge which lead to a tpv lobe digging all the way down and phasing w/ the other wave, roll it forward and...

genuine question, what was a similar storm to this setup with TPV interaction(to this extent) being involved?

this is quite nice

MECS on euro

idk if i should post the map here... might as well lol