DarkSharkWX

GEFS

makes sense with more AAM expected, prob can temper-pna a bit for dec

oisst is the newest sst method and uses buoys/obs in addition to satellite, while CDAS/CRW dont CDAS was showing a moderate nino last year while we were well in strong-super territory, oldest out of the 3 which is why alex's website doesnt use it

where do you get that website and the one you used to show the level of the warm pool, psl monthly only lets me put in 20 years

2013-14, 2012-13, 2005-06, 1961-62 are their top analogs probably leaning towards +TNH winter instead of canonical Nina bc of the persistent warm pool in the tropical wpac at ~160E +TNH winters also tend to break the mold of typical Nina winters which are usually frontloaded, and have a colder jan-feb than dec, which is what they went with

i mean its a good thing in the long term, its just in the mean time its keeping the -PDO from flipping despite the strong +ENSO will prob flip eventually either way

might be wrong thread, but how does what happen in the atlantic during tropical season affect winter in the EC? why does more ace have a + correlation w ec snowfall

imo this year is a mix of a weaker 1973 and 1998 to an extent and we did have a aleutian/GOA low for dec the slowed IO forcing is from the large +IOD collapse - which(the +IOD) is a good sign of nino coupling. it coupled extremely quickly as well; so thats why we saw more of a nina esque pattern despite the super nino trying to fight back the record -PDO not even coming close to flipping is nonetheless surprising, ive heard some met students/mets talk about the decline of shipping aerosol emissions playing a role in maintaining the -PDO despite the nino

djf conus temp map will end up looking like a super nino

12/11: 2.1" 1/14: 0.1" 1/15-1/16: 5.4" 1/19: 6.4" 2/13: 0.6" 2/17: 2.8" Seasonal Total: 17.4"

31.8 SN+

winchester abt to get pummeled