Stormchaserchuck1

Big deal https://ibb.co/52JLZG3 https://ibb.co/zh1Pxpw We'll probably see more like this in the next 10-20 years.

I've seen so many things move just to balance out the equation in the last 2-3 years.... https://ibb.co/ySJCrTy (Predicted all kind of things with the theorem, Dec +PNA next year, Feb, March -PNA this year, etc..)

Almost May now.. and we have a June "ENSO cooling" in this cycle that we may come up against. I think we are seeing a reflection of global max, that's it. Although it is a little unique, and should even out to maybe a Moderate event. https://ibb.co/XbQ3gWj

Yeah, -PNA not really breaking. There is some GOA Low signal on LR models, but 1) trend continues for more -PNA as we get closer 2) -NAO cap remains in place, we never trend more -NAO, somewhat consistent +NAO decadal cycle. This tells me that the same patterns that we have seen since 2013, 2016, 2019 and lately continue to hold.. There is a Global warming trend, and Nino 1+2 seems to point and match that right now imo.(We have seen a lot of Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 volatility since year 2000.)

For how warm Nino 1+2 is, the N. and S. Hemisphere are just that cold. https://ibb.co/1Z8T76P (reaching about the same SD happening (combo of both areas), adjusting for global warmth)

Now we are looking at constant +PNA. Look for things to get better in the El Nino-world.

Today's warmth is a 5-6SD happening, as we have a -WPO, -NAO, +PNA. Those vs the SE ridge is the 5sd, pretty cool.

SOI has some relevancy, other indicators have gotten perhaps washed out from implementation/usage over time, but I've seen where other things were acting peculiar and the SOI took its leading role. Something I also watch is the NOI and SOI* (southern hemisphere NOI), these extend pressure measurements to 30N/30S, connected with the same pressure origin region as SOI. I haven't found anything that has a clear definitive +weeks/months lead but the subsurface. In other words, if the SOI is not strongly negative now, that has already been factored into current SSTs, although perhaps you could sort out a correlation there. (We had a major +NOI in February, just like the last 6 February's.. so trends may be somewhat the same through May/June. We would need a super -NOI to break that trend. )

Just crazy that we have a -NAO, -EPO, and +PNA right now.

Obsessed with numbers is wierd. But everyone is disconnected these days...

Yeah, imagine like 3 blizzards piled up on top of each other. we would have 70" of snow! That was disheartening because even though the 3 blizzards happened within 3 weeks, they were all gone by the time the next one started. I like blowing snow too. 00's storms have been very wet-quality. I think we are progressing back to better quality-snow type. I could tell that Winter, 09-10, that we were going into a snow drought, because of the brightness.

I'm keeping track of cloudless days, Today makes 2/2. With clouds, I think there is more activity potential happening right now.

Subsurface is warming again. We are probably coasting right up to moderate. Again, after May it's fallen every time recently, but April 20.. we're probably good for a healthy event.

lol I believe! These 2-3" days of rain are followed by 1 good day to be outside, then it's dry again.

I always wished for a culmination of snow, I remember the 3 blizzards being very weak, and I could see the grass days after, because of heavy sun. If it's wet, I'd rather it not snow. We were in a dry snow drought a lot after 02-03, and it seems to be going away somewhat the last few Winter's (dry, powdery snow vs wet snow). Something I watch is the quality of the snow.

Another check, 1,2,3 pattern. https://ibb.co/bWvSWz8 A lot of volatility still in the overall pattern.

The answer to drought is more water.

I'll just say it, someone probably did mushrooms. The odds of it only over a city (looking at radar totals) are like 1/1000. If not now, then another point in time. [matter of factly lol]

I like that Nino 1+2 and the rest of ENSO have been disconnected a lot since year 2000. that spells more max ENSO potential I think

So what.. the global temp is +0.5c warmer than those years.

El Nino struggling but we did pass the "random point barrier" where it's odds increase (for example)from 1-5 to 1-100, so we'll probably have a Weak to Moderate El Nino.

These cloudless days really accelerate drought, it seems. It's like time is accelerated x1.618

Yeah, it's hitting this 2013-after timetrend and not trending -NAO anymore. Definite cap in place it seems.

-PNA is shifting today to more of a +pna pattern. The western subsurface is warming again, getting close to +4c. This is anomaly because most times in developing Nino's, the western subsurface starts cooling. Higher chance for a 2 year event as of now imo. Again, my research says maybe 4 Winter's of +PNA/el nino-correlation, taking us to 26-27.

We shift patterns in the next 1-2 days. It has the feel of March, though, where 2012 wasn't going away as an analog. I think we will be back to above average into May. I can already see signs of it on D15-16 models.