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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the subsurface is really warm A lot of the analog roll forward I did gave us 50% chance of Nino next year, 25% Neutral, 25% Nina(it's like 10% because we are 0/7 in 4th year Nina's). We'll see, events have been getting depressed in general, defaulting to 1998- cold period (-PDO) base state. ^The mid-subsurface at -200m actually correlates directly with the 500mb N. Hemisphere pattern, and is a reason, I think why, we are so wet.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Importance of the PNA.. I keep harping on how big of a miss this is, because of how dry -NAO/-AO's typically are We are entering a very wet pattern at just the right time(NAO/AO), which is contrary to what's normal.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here we go.. look at all this moisture
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    super positive.. #2 on record. 95-96 was after 6 straight +ENSO years 90-95 (record of this century +streak, also 89-90 and 96-97 were both -Neutral, but we didn't go La Nina 8/9 years (95-96 the exception) 89-98, which is also the longest streak of the last 200 years). After we were most negative ENSO 70-76, 76,77, 77-78, 78-79 were the coldest Winter's on record. 78-79 still ranks as #1.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Didn't you have 90" of snow those years? (I wasn't here)
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    MacDonald and Case[24] reconstructed the PDO back to 993 using tree rings from California and Alberta. The index shows a 50–70 year periodicity but is a strong mode of variability only after 1800, a persistent negative phase occurring during medieval times (993–1300) which is consistent with La Niña conditions reconstructed in the tropical Pacific[25] and multi-century droughts in the South-West United States.[26] 0/7 I think 3rd year La Nina's going into the 4th year, since the 1800s.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    We can do it when ++NAO (13-14, 14-15, 92-93, 93-94). PNA is pretty untouchable.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PNA is saturated now. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html Usually when it's switching from long term +PNA to -PNA, we can get colder, but not this time.. look forward to a rainy 15-20 days.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look at this wave train Maybe someone could run stats on how it goes PNA negative/neutral, coming out of >4SD -NAO (rain/snow?). Because the moisture will be there.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    STJ is really active for 10-12 days with retrograding NW Atlantic low.. probably all rain imo, pretty high confidence lock, but something we have not seen in a while(such a wet pattern).
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    After our last two, only two, strong -PNA/-NAO's in long-wavelength season, since Jan 2013.. it gets cold (high pressure upper atmosphere lol)
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Can you believe this +5-7F subsurface cancels itself out in the global + wavepatterns? (little relevance)
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pacific and Atlantic have been matching too, at -0.70 correlation. A 4-5SD -NAO is going to be 3SD -PNA (5-6SD -NAO is going to be a 4SD -PNA) (3SD -NAO is going to be a 2SD -PNA, 0time). No snow for us for a while, at least through 384hr.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    STJ is actually really juicy
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd go with no snow through 384hr.. Higher chances next December is +PNA, at least. lol
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I like the -AO that's been building, especially over Russia, since August.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    It doesn't snow when the PNA is moderate to strongly negative recently, that's our worse pattern, even with >2SD -NAO. MR/LR pattern reminds me a lot of March 2018: Good news is it was followed by a cooler April. Let's see what happens. Second recent case of -PNA, -NAO was Jan 2021 cold again followed that's it since 2013.. as far as analogs go.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    The last 3 +QBO/La Nina Winter's have been -NAO December seems to be dominant/middle
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks like it's turning positive. Reminds me of 09-10 actually.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look at how wet the Pacific got at hr384 6z
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look how wet the Pacific/STJ is at the end of this run.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    0 for Atlanta the whole year.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO has been negative on Christmas last 7/8 years by +100dm> , while the Dec-Mar average NAO for the period is -60dm-median-average. (since 2013/4) You can throw out this +NAO signal
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Do you like this, Pacific-Atlantic ridges hook up 20 analogs Dec 20.. overall signal randomizes a lot Dec 25 +PNA Dec 30 There's my +PNA Pattern change into January
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Kick this -PNA out of there.. 3 contours on the GOA low
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