Stormchaserchuck1

I remember the blizzard of '96.. 2-4"! 3-6"! 6-12"! 12-18"! omg blizzard watch.. it will keep going higher. 18-24"!! blizzard warning I thought we would go to 30-36"

It's like a car that doesn't reach its max and putters out gas. The potential is there for +900dm to +1000dm -NAO I think, and when that doesn't happen, when it's not reached, the puttering out SE/EC ridge seems to occur.. capped Maybe the tropical jet stream isn't even that high.. hits a plateau where the ridge runs from south to north.

Just really nice outside. I can tell that we are still accelerating toward some kind of drought/heat dome pattern.

Keep doing this drought busting stuff, and the trees will end up like dogs and cats.

El Nino with -QBO is a 1/8 year type of pattern (best), if you use those 2 variables. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

Kind of a below average start to the season. It seems that the downsloping trend is holding for now. It may be hard to get those bowling ball lows in the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest going forward, the pattern is ridge north/some type of drought.

I think we are heading toward a hotter Summer. It's been a bit of an anomaly to not have a very above average May-June since 2012. We are also trending this way by looking at the last 3 years.

I think we are trending toward a hotter Summer. These are the last 3 Summer's https://ibb.co/WHB3jnc

The high pressure just isn't circulating cold air under it. On models, it trends to the time of happening, as a Pacific pattern change. The area that correlates is like this. https://ibb.co/pw2HBm8

In the anomalies, W->E is proving much superior to S->N. a Low in the N. Pacific ocean is more likely to give us cold than a High to the north. It's an anomaly than began about 10 years ago, and has increased in correlation over time, peaking now. I think it's interesting, 500mb low over Greenland elongates south to the SE, while a block over Greenland, seems to pump the SE ridge under it or correlates to a N. Pacific that pumps the SE ridge downstream.

Iceland looks awesome. It looks like you picked a good time to go there.

It's pretty amazing that droughts never stick.

Besides post-Super Nino's of 1983, 1992, and 1998, the most Nino1+2 warmth was in these years in April.. it has historically been a lagger vs leader. 1953 24.13 26.27 27.22 27.00 25.43 23.43 21.96 21.18 21.06 20.84 21.51 22.22 1965 23.87 25.78 26.48 26.88 25.95 24.35 23.00 22.38 21.10 21.34 22.09 23.16 1983 27.21 28.13 28.72 28.86 28.26 27.36 25.76 23.93 22.10 22.00 22.05 23.03 1987 25.56 27.07 27.93 27.10 25.93 24.10 22.98 21.82 21.83 22.47 22.80 23.48 1992 25.03 26.71 27.73 27.72 26.63 23.98 21.89 20.87 20.76 21.02 21.59 22.71 1998 28.12 28.74 29.23 28.22 27.14 25.36 23.37 21.97 20.95 21.35 21.51 22.63 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina1.data They all dropped >5c later in the year.. 53-54 and 92-93 were subsurface El Nino's but neutral in Nino 3.4 in the Winter. These 3 were the coldest, and they turned into 2 Neutral and 1 Weak Nina. 1950 23.01 24.32 25.11 23.63 22.68 21.33 20.31 20.12 19.56 19.99 19.85 21.72 1954 22.66 24.88 25.17 22.45 21.43 20.66 19.13 19.31 19.02 18.98 20.20 21.34 1962 23.83 25.37 24.36 23.16 22.90 21.77 20.64 20.24 19.99 19.84 20.78 21.72 You can also see how Nino 1+2 warmth/cold in April is possibly correlated to rise in global temperature, or at least it has been vs Nino 3.4.

NFL is weird. Both sides are weird and I'm weard for talking about it. The Lamar thing is so awkward, yeah he wants 1/4 billion dollars lol. Wish he can repeat that 3TD-rushing game from his rookie season against Cleveland, flipping into the endzone.

Just saying, if you feel like something is "taking you away from this world", do work. Do work to be here. simple. too many people complain I think about judgement.

If Nino 1+2 could remain this warm for another 1-2 months, that would be impressive. We haven't really seen anything anomalous since 2012. 15-16 Super Nino was a sliding scale down of past Strong Nino's, imo. It's a -PNA era since 2010 and 2013 for whatever reason. I've seen a lot of neutral (even-out) patterns the last few years...

We've seen 3 rounds of higher latitude blocking empty out to well above average mid-latitudes. We'll see if the El Nino is a variable that could conquer this.. My point about 65-66, which I've seen with other developing strong Nino's, is that they historically are colder times for the globe, before it gets going).

I wouldn't forecast a less active Atlantic hurricane season until the warmth gets into Nino 3.4. May 9-12 is a good test, the central subsurface is warming pretty strong today vs yesterday.

Everytime a ridge of significance appears to our N or NE (-NAO-west), a -PNA also appears. https://ibb.co/BjvSZKk These blocking patterns have emptied out to some really warm global warmth, felt over the East coast. This could possibly be a hot pattern by mid-May. https://ibb.co/Mgh4tQ8

I just think this is amazing. We probably aren't going to get a cold Winter. https://ibb.co/9Vsw203 [NAO theorum]

Expect a good window for ENSO warming May 10-12. I want to see SOI/NOI shift stronger if we are going to go stronger. Here was 1966. https://ibb.co/L04dXDX It was colder everywhere, I think we are heading toward a hotter summer 1965 https://ibb.co/5xLqwz7

DCA +1.8 NYC +1.8 BOS +1.8 ORD +2.0 ATL +2.0 IAh +1.5 DEN +2.0 PhX +2.0 SEA +2.4

I've never heard of Ron Paul. A lot of guys are out of touch, addiction to numbers.

Every time we get a -NAO block, a -PNA of validity and strength develops/new model trend, everytime. https://ibb.co/BtkQrPH Eventually someone will discuss it with me muahahaha

Look at this, just constant development of -PNA and/or +EPO with regards to all and any -NAO blocks, strength.. https://ibb.co/BtkQrPH These are model trends