Stormchaserchuck1

Models do have the 10mb PV going negative. That correlates at +0day with +AO, but this Winter is strong -QBO and El Nino, which verifies 70/30 to 10mb warming, so maybe it won't be too bad longer run.

Don't know why you guys think you can claim anything is true.. fast must mean right. here, this was a jet extension too. https://ibb.co/4ZStGKw oooo look at the fancy jet extension. bright colors https://ibb.co/vVrZZ8X

Correlates with a SE trough though.. NW ridge. It's under a +PNA low.

The ridging is from +NAO..

It's not really a jet extension though.. The AO is like +3 and NAO +2.. They just haven't been impacting the pattern as much lately (NAO/AO), and now there are real 1st wave effects. It just picked up a little correlation... but it's not some rogue/random wave that is an extension of +pna.

That's a lot of rain on the 12z GFS.. too bad it won't be colder. STJ appears to be healthy and well.

Hopefully it's a loading pattern for a -NAO.. The Pacific looks good.

Natural Gas 33% drop this month. I've found a 0.4-0.5 correlation with the 2nd half of Winter (lower is warmer, higher is colder). https://ibb.co/JpSn9Mb

Natural Gas rose... now it's fallen back to 2.38. I've found under 2.5 correlates with basically negative 500mb anomaly 60N-90N.. +NAO/+AO/+EPO.. but it's only a -40-50dm signal (+1-2 months from happening) https://ibb.co/JpSn9Mb

Ravens only favored by -3 at home next week lol

Yeah Lamar Jackson is 21-1 against the NFC.. if we get there, we should win

Yeah, if you had to say chicken and egg though, I would say the La Nina patterns are coming first, then -PDO is resulting from the effected wave. https://ibb.co/TmBkw1S

Your presupposition is that Strong El Nino's are bad for I-95? That's not necessarily true, the below average snowfall this season has been more from -PNA/+EPO, which are more La Nina patterns, vs it being a Strong El Nino.. In the examples of 72-73 and 97-98, there was a strong N. Pacific low pressure (El Nino effect), but the jet stretched over N. America to include the east coast in those years (which is more rare of an occurance).

I don't think so.. https://ibb.co/Xk3MNZC It seems to be an effect of the Pacific Ocean vs Global warming, unless you argue that more La Nina's occur in Global warming.. what I always heard about it in the 1990s was that more El Nino's would be the effect.

It hasn't happened so far this in this El Nino.. maybe the February correlation will hold. I think an El Nino should favor +PNA/-NPH (North Pacific High) all times of the Winter, but the "Dec warm" thing held this year so maybe Feb will too.

We've had a moderate Stratosphere warming for the last 7 days.. It even maxed out >2,000, which is pretty strong. https://ibb.co/kXmPbht At this time of the year, 10mb warming correlates to -NAO in +20 days about 2/3 times. That puts it at Feb 2-10. LR models don't have the NAO negative right now Feb 2-6, so we'll see. (The correlation isn't perfect it could range +5-10 days.) Some will say that we already had the -NAO effect, but I disagree, on the last day of this 10mb (in this image below), the 500mb NAO is positive, and the historical analysis shows that 10mb usually leads in time, although 500mb and 10mb are kind of lined up right now. https://ibb.co/BK0hdy6

We've had a moderate Stratosphere warming for the last 7 days.. It even maxed out >2,000, which is pretty strong. https://ibb.co/kXmPbht At this time of the year, 10mb warming correlates to -NAO in +20 days about 2/3 times. That puts it at Feb 2-10. LR models don't have the NAO negative right now Feb 2-6, so we'll see. (The correlation isn't perfect it could range +5-10 days.)

I think they use a skewed mean, where like 30 days of +1.00 would be a +3.00 monthly reading, but I'm not 100% sure. (That's why I said January will probably end up around +1.00.)

It's a little drier. I would give it a +0.10 advantage all things neutral, but because we're so sensitive with the 32 degree mark it's probably higher here..

Yeah.. I lose what I'm going to say when I don't get to the computer in time lol. AO is going to hit +3.5 on the dailies in a few days... It seems like after good snows, we really amp the AO, doesn't it?

After a playoff bye the team beats the spread 52% of the time. South teams (FL, TX, LA, GA, CA, AZ) playing in under 30 degrees loses vs the spread 59% of the time.

Texans are a pretty good team. It's hard to watch this SF/GB game after the Ravens..

Maybe the SE will get a storm.

Feb 11 - March 5? What did those long ranges say in Nov/Oct?

NAO is rapidly going + now. beginning of the end.. we are going to need a pattern change for snow again. That's what the the last 4-5 years have taught me, without favorable upper latitudes/indexes, we rarely if ever get snow these days.