Stormchaserchuck1

If you want to make a correlation with 87-88 as an opposite analog.. 88-89 was probably the most relative La Nina on record, since 1948 (relative to surrounding ENSO states and PDO). Could support our El Nino here. 89-90 acted like a weak El Nino. 90-91 was positive ENSO 91-92 was El Nino, 92-93 and 93-94 were subsurface El Nino's. 94-95 was El Nino. 95-96 was the start of switch back, weak La Nina, but strong +PNA on the surface. So 6-7 years of +ENSO... could support that we are still in a long term cycle of La Nina or -PDO, if you use just that one factor, it could be a lag factor occurrence too.

I had found that the ENSO subsurface correlates more to the N. Hemisphere pattern than the surface, by a pretty strong difference, actually, that is since satellite era in 1979 and 1948. In the past, this difference had usually been a temperature difference, but last Winter there was a very strong STJ when the subsurface was Moderate El Nino, hard to tear them two apart. It was actually the strongest surface-subsurface difference since the -subsurface/+surface of 1987-8, which was a High pressure pattern. we may make it to Weak-Moderate El Nino, because so much is going for it, but this -PNA is not what you like to see in a developing Strong Nino.

Yeah, this is a strong pattern at this point. -PNA, +NAO. Should climb into the 90s the last week of May.

+PNA today and yesterday, or GOA low giving us warmer than normal temps May 11th and 12th. (I think March 11-12 could have been a good snowstorm.) Last week of May looks like probably 90s for highs.. Fast jet stream shown by clouds veering off to the side is a precursor for a much warmer than average Summer, in my opinion. Lack of organized thunderstorms I imagine would continue too.. It seems like the current condition is a drought compared to Summers like 1995, but even so we are up against a big heat ridge from the rest of the last 20 years potentially building in.. stay tuned. drought busting in my statistical opinion is happening vs pattern progression.

I was noticing cloudless days. I think we have like 8/14. It's not necessarily a drought, but a macro pattern we are in.

We also didn't get a Gulf coast hurricane for 11 years following Katrina. It was a time of above normal Atlantic activity, making it one of the greatest anomalies of our time. I wouldn't bet on a NE hit this year..

When matched up with similar years of the greatest N. Hemisphere anomaly in Russia over a 12-month period, the signal usually flips (cold becomes warm, warm becomes cold) the following year-winter.

Natural Gas correlation Natural Gas rises/drops the year before vs Winter temps Highest correlation is Russia We currently have the #2 biggest drop NG (for the year), #1 is 2001 (01-02). Only 1 rise was greater than this years difference, 2000-2001. So we are #3 overall difference since 1995, year to date.

I don't know about that.. I know the subsurface has been positive for a while

Nothing but warm here by the end of May. Decent signal for -PNA developing days 15-16.. could start hitting 90s. https://ibb.co/0rrnXHG

Looks kind of pathetic now. https://ibb.co/WtRDxQx

Still seems like we have easy tendency for drought.. nevermind the thunderstorm drought that we are in.

Now on MR models it's short lived, and looking to give way to -PNA by D15... The Russia correlation is about 0.20 to +PNA +time.

Right. I think we will see more +PNA, but it gives question as to chicken and eggs, if the cold anomalies started happening in Russia April 2022, through May 2023. About 13 months of some anomalous cold there, correlates to +PNA down the line, but now El Nino appears... chicken or egg.

It just ways of describing the increase or decrease of equilateral trade winds. max has never really been hit. https://ibb.co/m5H8Lch

It doesn't make sense that Strong Nino would be a blowtorch if Moderate El Nino is snowy, if they are based in generally the same area.. Give enough samples and they will both even out.

Posted this in ENSO thread in weather section too: We have had 4 years of +QBO/La Nina since 2008, and 4 -NAO's, but bad overall years for snow. I think this year if we are -QBO/El Nino +NAO's will give us snow.

I feel like we had that a lot in Feb-March. In some months of the Winter NAO correlations with drier conditions 0.5/1, so we actually had a rare conditions of much wetter than normal conditions during -NAO last winter.

Medium range models show a +PNA of some significance occurring around May 12. https://ibb.co/CssytcK I had noticed constant cold in Russia 12 months ago, and this has continued more often than not for the last 12-months. Roll forward research shows that cold, or colder than normal, Russia evens out to more +PNA conditions in the following months(9-12 months). We also continue to run this ridiculous NAO-PNA correlation (+NAO, happens or trends with more +PNA's, -NAO happens or trends with more trending -PNA's.) https://ibb.co/YZ0sccj That will hold until further notice. (I say that because in my observation it has a EC, and imo population- could be wrong, correlation). Let the clouds grow high up in the atmosphere

Well consistency is the name of the game.. no one probably thinks the -PDO is because of -PNA conditions having been happening, and that is probably a more accurate way of saying it, that the El Nino is not right now correlating to +PNA, but -PNA. 65-66 and 72-73 were both El Nino's/-PNA's through the Winter, but that is small sample size although I can say it was right in the heart of that -PDO just to make a future point..

NAO and west-based NAO anti-correlation right now is stronger I think than ENSO. I wonder if -QBO/El Nino (Stratosphere warming signal) will help that flip around, like 09-10. (The way +qbo/Nina worked last Winter makes me think we may do more snowy +NAO's next Winter.)

I would love a +NAO next Winter.. 97-98 and 01-02 both had pretty strong times of -NAO, I think 72-73 too. I think +NAO right now is correlating with -EPO/+pna. More snow in the last 10 years is correlating with +NAO, although by itself it's not a great pattern.

I didn't know they have salary cap room to sign Peters.. I agree, can't have enough CB's in the sport today.

El Nino seemingly more integrated in the pattern now (forecast models, pattern). Usually there is a direct correlation from subsurface to the pattern, but we haven't seen this so much like I would expect Jan-Apr, with a lot of -PNA under warm central-ENSO subsurface. There was something I was tracking where the pattern of the previous year would similarly be oppositely repeated, to like to even it out, and something like that had more impact on what happened than ENSO Jan-Apr. I still think the "-PNA" has power going into next Fall and Winter.

The wind has shifted direction. Cool radar from Va. beach. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAKQ/standard (These -NAO's keep going to a warmer pattern in the SE ridge.)