Stormchaserchuck1

I've done research on the MJO and found little predictive value. Also, when it was being used real time 2015-2020, it was not verifying like historical composites.. I think that continued into the 2020s but I'm not sure. What I mean is, models predict the amplitude of the MJO and that varies, every day it goes stronger or weaker.. but as a lagged variable (using current state to predict future weather) it was providing no skill over the models. I think it was developed sometime in the early 2000s, when most of the better stuff came before year 2000. My opinion.

A little more -PNA this time yeah.. this El Nino is not really acting strong in the upper latitudes. We've been missing the N. Pacific low. We do though have the most equilateral convection all time https://ibb.co/9tN0Vyv Most opposite year on satellite record is 95-96 https://ibb.co/zN1pNYJ I rolled forward both states, and found a heavy +warm bias for enhanced convection, the globe was up to 40-50dm higher at 500mb for the next year (vs -40 to -50dm in neg composite).. means we can expect a mild year coming. Analog years were split in time so there's little global warming skew.

This looks like 72-73 analog https://ibb.co/FDvpj32 A positive is, that can sometimes be a loading pattern for -NAO +time. Big El Nino's with net cold water in the subsurface support that map believe it or not. https://ibb.co/gwTQ69n

585dm Gulf of Alaska High Euro weeklies had like a 3std +PNA occurring through the month of February.. enso subsurface is cooling though. I have found there to be a +correlation with the N. Pacific pattern in now-time, with what the subsurface conditions are.

The first wave Stratosphere warming occurred Dec 25 - Jan 9th. This was, I would say a 3/10 scale warming. We did get the same kind of effects as the examples above of cold in the US +time, which we are still experiencing now, Jan 20th. -NAO occurred Jan 4-19, so a little sooner than my perfect correlation time. Now we are seeing a 2nd wave Stratosphere warming, starting on Jan 13. It's so close to the last one, you can probably say the entire time is +Stratosphere warming, especially because 10mb never went below a 0 anomaly. It is rising and peaking now though, and on this latest map of Jan 17th: https://ibb.co/W5CDyQG Average time for effect of this max period is +20 days at this time of the year, so the highest probability of NAO correlation is Feb 5-7, as of right now. Here was the 1st wave 10mb warming final analysis: https://ibb.co/s1hYmTY US temps have looked like this since Jan 5: https://ibb.co/fM3YWKC (I'll probably do a +25 day final analysis when it's available, since that was the estimated time from when 1st wave occurred to effect.)

We are getting a pretty good Stratosphere warming now: https://ibb.co/W5CDyQG At this time of the year, the average time to effect the NAO/ground pattern is +20 days. That would be Feb ~7-10. Here is a post about what recent patterns have occurred when the 10mb warmings "downwelled" in time:

So the +PNA/+NAO is going to lead to a -PNA that is going to lead to a -NAO, that is going to lead back to a +PNA?

Here's my deck, tonight, after the combined 2 storms. https://ibb.co/zsFGc67

Stratosphere warmings have happened lately with a SE ridge in the +time to downwell, since 15-16.. Jan 22-28 NAO analogs show the +NAO coming is partially because of timing with the Strat warming (waxes and wanes). Beyond then, Feb has been severely impacted by the a La Nina global base state.. it's the decadal cycle.

I give it a "B" It could have been powdry and windy/blowing snow.. 7" on the ground in an arctic airmass is awesome though.

`15-16 storm had such a high precip content though, and it was gone in a week with mild temps. I will much rather take these 20s/10s arctic days.

I have 7" on the ground. It doesn't melt here like other places, because I am in the deep woods. Really beautiful night out, almost full moon in the sky. 3.6" with this one.

And go outside and be in it! Because it's going to melt next week.

1"/hr?

Yeah it was fun.. there are 74"+ reports coming out near Buffalo. All you need is a strong -NAO or -EPO arctic airmass. If we go into a La Nina next Winter in the heart of this -PDO or whatever it is, it might be a good Winter to go north at some point. Going out on the frozen ice mounds on the lake was fun too, in the heavy wind.

Might have to go to Buffalo and chase sometime

12z GEFS LR is pretty ugly.. here we go with that +PNA that everyone had in February.. I thought it might have troubles this year. Subsurface ENSO has also dipped below 0 in the zone I have found has the highest PNA correlation.. so we'll see.. Euro model, both seasonal and weeklies have been head of the pact showing a strong +PNA February. In the final analysis, they might just rely on El Nino a little too much.

I measured 3.5".

According to the CPC, it's been a Strong +NAO Winter. I don't really get that because look at Greenland, and even a little cold pocket over the Azores https://ibb.co/WW5kVPZ Yet December came in at +1.94, and January according to their predictions forward should come in around ~+1.00. Pretty huge discrepancy there https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Have you found that Mountain Torque actually does that though? I once calculated all the +EAMT events and found no strong correlation to the current and future pattern. Pressure over the Himalaya's was easy to read/record too, on the satellite data going back to 1948. They said that it correlates to 10mb warming, but I even got a weak signal there too.

Unbelievable that that's even on the table with +NAO as strong as it is. I haven't been saying to PSU that the NAO should be positive for us to see snow, I've said that the Pacific correlating, and in many cases more than evening it out (on both sides of the index), is interesting, and could result in better winter patterns going forward in this state since the NAO has almost as strong of a precip correlation as a temperature correlation here on the EC. (I'm not predicting snow or ice with the 25th storm).

We should get 3-4".. Hrr looks pretty impressive, still snowing at 4pm. Interesting to see if they do better than the global models here in the short range.

Another 3" Hrr run for northern MD. It went a little north around DC vs 02z.

Global models still behind short range models for snow totals.. GFS has 1-2", and the NAM was near the same, but Hrr and RAP have been impressive many runs in a row.. 3-4". The Global models hold back is why I think NWS isn't issuing WSW's.

That's a +3SD +NAO on the 18z GEFS hr 168. It connects with the lower part of the measurement in Europe and the US, too. Just impressive.. we haven't had much of that strength since 1997 (0 +analogs for the exact dates, Jan 22-28, since 1997).