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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    If the precip drought continues, we could be looking at the potential for some boomers going into the Winter (as that would signal it's a macro pattern).
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    The +AMO may be something that starts with 15 La Nina's/8 El Nino's, and have more El Nino's vs La Nina's at the end (if it's extended), I fail to see the strong correlation there.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    The N. Pacific has responded moderately, by giving us less -pna's, and a few +pna's recently, but D15 models show an Aleutian ridge, which could correlate with some subsurface cooling. If this continues through late July, I can't see us getting past a Moderate peak. https://ibb.co/7kGNKpG https://ibb.co/0j72JfM
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    This isn't too impressive, The Western region in recent La Nina's match what we are seeing in Nino 3.4, heading into July We have had these Kelvin waves in recent Springs, anyway Having warm subsurface starting the previous Oct-Nov has been my par for "what could have been a strong event".
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's beautiful outside.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Round 3 incoming. It had cooled off to the 60s around 6pm, now humid again with distant thunder.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is a good example of the relative minimum's we are still experiencing at a time of global warming. This event remains uneven with the string of La Nina's, and global warming as a whole (if everything were to catch up).
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Massive lightning bolt shots just to my east. Edit: sirens then the storm cooled down.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cell to my south is really lighting up. Many flashes (1/1-2 seconds)
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have nice, smooth Mammatus clouds overhead in Bel Air, cell building to my south. Edit: some CC lightning next to a blue sky. Wish it were dark.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    The last 2 El Nino's / -QBO's were 14-15 and 09-10, that's the 2 on record in the last 25 years. Last Winter was La Nina/ +QBO (opposite). Extend it to 1979 and you have 86-87 and 91-92. I've contested that a surface +NAO could work better for us these days than -NAO's, but that's another story.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we just don't have a large enough dataset. Single-digit number of years. I think a lot of Strong Nino's in the late 1800s, early 1900s were cold anyway. The pattern they always produce is a -NOI, which has to do with the North Pacific High (right off the west coast). It puts a trough there (and to the GOA). If you plot a NE Pacific Ocean trough, you have a trough over the east, but the 3 examples of Strong Nino's on record had extended 2nd wave ridges, from coast-to-coast, which I'm going to say is more of an anomaly.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    For reference, last Winter was Strong Nina/+QBO = 0 inches. Pretty awesome correlation. I even in the Fall said we would have an uncorrelating -NAO, given the previous 3 Nina/+QBO's, since 2008.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I could see us getting 30-60" next Winter, pretty easily. We have a -QBO too which really goes well with El Nino. I've always contested that he Stronger the Nino, the better.. Biggest fear is a 18-19 type of deal where the PNA correlates until Nov then the -PDO, or global -AAM enhances tendency for a SE ridge. You guys did fine in 13-14 and 14-15 so I wouldn't worry too much.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Years after a NAO event(s) doesn't correlate, the pattern [PNA] is uniform. I think a Strong Nino, even east-based, could put a mean trough over us.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    >+7c now in the subsurface of TAO/Triton maps. What I think is interesting is that the western subsurface has warmed back to +1c, when most of the Stronger El Nino years were colder in the western regions by now. A 2nd year Neutral/El nino could be more likely.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    You don't even have a strong 500mb ridge overhead. All the way out near Africa a TC is about to develop.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    We had a global warming spike until May. Now the S. Hemisphere is warming pretty good, so I'm not sure it's over. I did do a research that years after the NAO didn't correlate (negative-warm here, positive-cold here), the following year the pattern was uniform to indexes 2x or 2SD better, so if we have a +PNA or GOA low (more likely in El Nino) it should put a 3rd wave trough over the EC in the Winter.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Droughts, then Moderate-Strong El Nino's have given us some good results in the past.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Subsurface is really flexing +. If we go Strong El Nino this year, it could tip the scales to go back to cold in 2024 (I was seeing earlier that we had the potential for a 2-year El Nino.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    We are also weighing pretty heavily on a +PNA this December (Dec 2023), but it could moderate slightly when last year was more + at the end of Dec.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    This year-to-year correlation is still valid. I'd expect a -AO (Artic circle warmth) at the same time next year. That could be a strong start to Artic ice melt next year, and current conditions over Antarctica are the 2nd point showing that could be a good start to next year.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Early season storms are more likely to track W->E 20N/60W is a huge point difference to pass north or south of. 70/30 vs 10/90 or something.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    ENSO subsurface has warmed up to almost +7c in the east, meaning that we will probably see a rapidly strengthening El Nino at least through July. Since year 2000, 16/21 Seasons have had 15+ TC [tropical cyclone]. (All 5 under 15 were developing El Nino's) (No season non-El Nino since 2000 has had under 15TC. Most recent, 2018 was a rapidly developing Summer El Nino (although weak): 15TC. 2016 was the most recent rapidly developing Summer La Nina: 15TC.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Subsurface is taking on Moderate-Strong El Nino configuration with >+6c in the east, and cooling in the west.
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