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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since inception, it's 13-4 at getting the overall NAO state, and 9-8 within the predicted 0.54 SD accuracy. It's a May-Sept measurement, that I was going to make a post about soon, Last August it really warmed, so I was waiting to post.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Central-subsurface has a -2c pocket. This is the correlator to N. Pacific pattern. In 72-73 despite a Strong Nino, central subsurface was -3 to -4, and that Winter had a strong -PNA. I'm more worried about the -PNA possibility than a Strong El Nino causing warm or whatever.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino looks weak in the subsurface https://ibb.co/qsv4Ytm There is a correlation with -50 to -250m, 180W to 140W, between many "nowtime events", I've found stronger than surface SSTs. If you look at the central-subsurface, it's not even an El Nino right now. It will be interesting to see if El Nino effects don't happen so much this season.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Now we have an area of -2 in the central-subsurface https://ibb.co/qsv4Ytm Remember, we had a wave here in the Winter/Spring that was +3-6 in the central region before Nino 1+2 and 3 warmed. Those who think this will develop significantly in Nino 3.4 just based on normal progression may be wrong... for the current time, it's out of fuel.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've been surprised it's been raining so much here in NE MD. We have 10"+ since it started a month ago.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still have juicy LI's https://ibb.co/m0vBQ8s
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Lapse Rates and CAPE is pretty decent. Another beautiful sunset with a sliver of moon in the sky. clear skies
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look at the warnings https://radar.weather.gov/station/KCLE/standard LI https://ibb.co/FkpzH99
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    It feels like instability has picked up a little. I know last night it felt like it was 92 degrees and rain when I went to sleep.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    That bow near Toronto looks interesting. SPC has >40% between 4z and 12z. It seems like there is a Slight risk every day though, with not much clouds in the sky.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    If you correlate to .2101 sigma potential, central-subsurface correlates more to 500mb in the N. Pacific Ocean.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's pretty cool about 72-73, that there was a very cold ENSO subsurface with that Winter. There is a 0-time-correlation there (subsurface and N. Pacific pattern), I've learned (That Winter was strong -PNA).
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm getting a lot of intuition for an active jet, giving us snowstorm chances in the East, The global jet seems to be right now strong and active. Wild card is if the +PNA or GOA low forms like it's suppose to in El Nino's.. I think -NAO-type pattern can be expected with El Nino/-QBO (could be a EC trough extending south from Greenland when the Pacific becomes favorable., there is a -NAO=ec ridge, +NAO=ec trough pattern in play for the last 10 years, reversing the Pac pattern). All these global warming landmarks being hit.. I've been watching the pattern in the Southern Hemisphere and it seems cold periods don't want to last beyond 15-25 days at a time..
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    The central-subsurface remains very weak for a Strong Nino in Nino 3.4 and 4.. (Remember, we recently had a +3 to +7 wave pass below all regions, and it's now ~+1.)
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Phoenix is probably going to go 30+ days in a row above 110, breaking the old record of 18. I wouldn't micro-analyze.. The record warm Atlantic ocean, the jet stream is north right now. I think we are blessed here in the east having constant troughs so far this Summer.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Did you guys hear, Phoenix's previous record for most consecutive 110 degree days was 18 in 1974. They are expected to get to 25, at least, with 114's still showing up at the end of the 10-day. Looking at LR models, they could go 30+.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've found that the cooler/wet Summer so far locally can be connected to El Nino, so things like roll-forward a wet July or whatever can be done with some validity.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    North Pacific lows have been powering through. This is a few times now where the models showed more -PNA than verified, as we went with a GOA low or +PNA. This is the first time in ~3 years that I have seen this trend on models, over the course of a few months. We are 3/3 I think. Obviously, the Hadley Cell is still far north, but we wouldn't see this trend if it were La Nina.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Virga here
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good question about 91-92, I would say something about the sun, but that might not be completely true. It was at the peak of +NAO decadal time with +PDO, and 7/8 years were +ENSO in that mix, so all these positive indexes may have given more tendency for +AO. That's why I say different patterns at different times.. 94-95 was a lot like 91-92. I don't have all the answers about 91-92.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah there is only a 0.2 correlation between -PNA and warmer temperatures but I bet we will trend warmer out ahead of it.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I like the threat setting up around 7/17.. We have a Great Lake's trough cutting in, and there should be more of a SE ridge this time, ahead of it, with the PNA being negative.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the sample size is too small. 2/4 Strong Nino's have give us major blizzards, and 2/4 Strong Nino's have given us nothing. The cross-country ridge that is the ruling pattern in Strong Nino as per analog examples, doesn't really match if you think about it: What makes the 2nd wave in a Pacific-> Atlantic jet stream more broad? Different patterns at different times.. I'm saying that since the year 2000 something in the jet has slowed down and there is a gravity off the coast, as long as we don't have a ruling NPH (north pacific high).
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah I'm on all hours. Our last stronger Nino/-QBO was 09-10. weak Nino/-QBO was 14-15, but I'm excited because I think we are in some kind of long term -NAO phase since year 2000, making analogs like 91-92 and 86-87 have less weight, although these are the 3 stronger Nino's/-QBO's on record since 1979. Last Winter of course was opposite, stronger Nina/+QBO. We have had other bad Winter's with Nina/+QBO since year 2000 too. I think PSUhoffman understands the that the southern jet stream has/is lifting north.. It might be hard to go the Winter without having warmer/rebounding times too. I'm moderately excited though, the STJ wet macro pattern seems to be the pattern (bigger but fewer storms). Just envision storms in the subtropical jet moving into what could be a constant +PNA/GOA low. Could be a I-95 and point NW kind of Winter. Everyone is scared of east-based Nino, but I think that only strengthens the -NOI which is not a bad pattern. (None of the Nino/-QBO's were in an east-based Nino so far (82-83 and 97-98 were not -QBO)).
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    You guys aren't going to like the -PDO after the next 15 or so days.. last monthly reading was -2.54. There is a strong correlation Sept-Nov with the following Winter's conditions (more than random chance) so it could weaken after mid-July if we are going to see a good Winter, but it looks like re-strengthening -PDO should occur mid to late-July.
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