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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would pretty easily bet PHL -2.5. I'm waiting for my post to be approved in PHL subforum, but I once recorded Vegas lines when teams had +8> winning streaks (SF), and found out they covered at like 46%.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I keep saying this but I think Days 13-16 are going to bust/trend colder. Maybe a little -EPO/+PNA setup.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Trending colder...was rain past few runs They like a high pressure in the -AO domain -PNA ridge near the Aleutians is really strong, too powerful to overcome, still not fully considered.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    (Maybe that's why they're picking up a -PNA at Days 14-16?) -AO's/-NAO's have a ~+15-20 day lag from SSW at that time of year.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just tired of waiting on people to approve me when what I'm posting isn't really trash. That's all. all good. do as you like.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I know if there's a storm there will be 1k posts /minute
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah then I'll be bored as the DOJ taught me the price of being extraverted is great
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    There's really no where else to post. It's a weather monopoly. Europe is surprisingly stupid, always lol.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    You probably have a good heart. The "ownership of this board" doesn't really know what they are moderating.. It's 99% non weather posts, no one since Vawxman in 2005 has really given any new scientific information on here.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    This board sucks.. moderation is so immature. How's that for the only science forum on the internet? Just like the government disappointing, disappointing. sick of being moderated by trash.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess it was cloudy today (-AO pick up on models)
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think this is a pretty big model error coming in at -PNA Days 14-16 on gfs ensembles (haven't seen 18z yet).
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Eagles covering -2.5
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good maybe we'll get some snow
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    You'd be better off making conclusion based on subsurface ENSO.. higher correlation. by a pretty significant margin actually vs the surface difference An example is this year so far being more +PNA vs 10-year average,. when subsurface is +Neutral-weak El Nino vs surface La Nina
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    QBO favorable with Strong El Nino could be awesome Flip this year for the NAO lol
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    If Nino 1+2 is already warm we will probably be going into El Nino. May has been the month where it backs off or goes full forward lately.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Stupid moderator block on my posts! How long is this going to last? I give real information for fun!
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    As of right now.. will probably change when models change If we are more +PNA Feb 5-21 we are stuck will possibly a -PNA March. If -PNA hits Feb 5-21 like models are currently showing, there could be some subsurface ENSO strength going into March(which actually won't matter ultimately!) If we run through both timeperiods independent, we are more likely to have an organic ENSO event this year.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wetter than average/-NAO December's evolves into +NAO February's Drier than average/+NAO December's evolves into -NAO February's 75 years of basis.. pretty cool correlation there. The Feb NAO signal> Dec NAO(pick and choose) *wetter/drier than average across the US Strong -PNA December's = -PNA/+NAO February's at 0.68 correlation Strong +PNA December's = +PNA/-NAO February's at 0.70 correlation
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    We actually have some pretty big pressure hitting the coast of Alaska today, and it's so warm out.. feels like 50. If the -PNA/+NAO that these LR models are showing verifies it will be 60s/70s ^look how this is kind of a 180*/from today, and it's still so warm out. Pressure breaching the N. Pacific is definitely a staple of this time. (I still think there is a +PNA signal 2nd week of February, will be interesting to see how this evolves.)
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would say no snow through Valentine's day.. easy call
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    And the same February pattern is repeating as the last 4 years (as per current models). Mathematical odds of 5 strong -PNA's is actually pretty low.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Feels like 50s today.. I can always tell when the PNA changes. (-PNA, had been +PNA a lot of the Winter)
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