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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Stratosphere warming at this time of the year, correlates to -NAO in +20 days (happens about 2/3 times). https://ibb.co/z84pgX1 Today and tomorrow are the peaks in 10mb warming I think.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    The Globe has more precipitable water right now than it has ever had before (on satellite record), even into the higher latitudes.. 15-16 is #2.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    The AN factor is a very positive NAO and AO (approaching +3), with +EPO being a factor some of the time too. Those are dominating, but the PNA is not part of that equation right now.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    In this example, the +NAO is a warm variable, yes. In the 3-5" snowfall, -NAO was a factor too, yes. Let's see if the +PNA/-EPO/+NAO and -PNA/+EPO/-NAO correlates in February.. the pattern is about 0.40 (+40% of the time) together in the last 5-11 years. And I see a high probability for this to happen next month.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    +PNA models have is extreme. I would bet against it.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    We should be fine by early February. There is a Stratosphere warming happening now https://ibb.co/59rRrb2 My issue is after the coldest day of the year Jan 27th, we have recently had a tendency to warm up real fast, especially in late February.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    The southern part of the -NAO has been missing.. 50/50 low and N. Atlantic trough. There have been a lot of years where there was ridging over Greenland, and it was determined to be a neutral or positive NAO. Your stat seems impressive for the EC, but cold/warm there is part of the bottom half of the NAO calculation I think.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Back to light snow.. it's been going back and forth. A lot of models had it ending, or dryslotting between 1-2am so I'm glad it's still snowing to the west of DC..
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Moderate snow here for the last 15 minutes, bigger flakes. 4" total. It looks like radar is backbuilding still! Both the 6z Hrr and RAP had no more than 1/2" to southern PA.. edit: tiny, nice flakes again. lots of them! The coastal must be developing.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice band coming for DC! I like how the radar looks.. a few models had less activity in the south part of the band right now. 05z Hrr has less than 1" more here.. I don't know about that..
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    My 9th grade science teacher referred me to DT who posted on Wright-weather. That was in 2001.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Snow pretty good again here, nice small dendrites. It was lite for the last 45 minutes, now started picking up again
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Congrats! I think I'm over 3" here
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Surprised.. models were all over this yesterday. They upped the totals in TN way up, and were going more negative with the trough. All you had to do is see what they were doing with everything vs reading the output totals verbatim. LWX did well I think, although they could have issued WSW's yesterday when it looked like the coastal was going to become stronger.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually nice to see the radar filling in near Harrisonburg
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't agree with this.. there is a +3 day-0 correlation, then it drops down to near 0, then it goes up to +10 at day+20 (20 days after 10mb warming). If the events saw a -NAO during initial warming didn't make a difference in the eventual lagged event. The correlation isn't perfect, but it's about 65-70% of time, indifferent to what happens at D+0.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Do you know the Ravens ended up playing only 3 teams that finished the season under .500.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have good flakes here in Harford Co. Will probably end up with 5-7".
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    GFS has some pretty moderate snow in northern MD tomm late morning/early afternoon
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    That one's not going to overperform like this one did. It's really a matter of temps, when we are marginal we don't overperform.. it's pretty simple.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have about 2.5". Looks like another 2-3" on the way in the next few hours here. Then we'll see if the coastal can give something extra.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Whole pattern is changing pretty fast at that point though. It looks like they want to reload the cold given by -WPO block. With the block retrograding and not reloading at that point though, it may not verify as cold as they currently have.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really gets going in NE MD. RAP has been showing this for several straight runs.. we'll see. 25F
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's what they are showing for February.. and have been showing this for a while. since at least September. Other global models are showing the same thing in the PNA region
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    That storm could trend warmer. Cold air will be cutoff, with NAO going + and -WPO retrograding
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