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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    There wasn't a strong 500mb ridge overhead, +30-45dm, that's it. Normally, hot July's in the SW precede warmer conditions in the eastern 2/3 of the US for Aug-Sept, but I wouldn't expect it as much.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Big Arctic ridge showing up on LR models. +250dm on the 12z GFS ensemble mean at 384hr.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Logarithmic. I contest that there are just more extremes.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty. This has been the best Summer I can remember as far as sunsets go.. every night is colorful.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Would have been really cool to see this lightning storm from Ocean City. When the storms first hit yesterday, 70-100mph winds were hitting the top of my 100+ year trees at the top. I could hear some big branches crack as the trees were bending. There wasn't nearly as much wind 20-30' feet from the ground and down.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty powerful little cold front. 1st of the season. Being outside, I can't believe how cool it can get at the warmest time of the year here..
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Radar is lighting up. You would never know what is going on by only reading this board lol
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    5000 CAPE in eastern MD https://ibb.co/Zxqn6ct
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Storms firing up near Martinsburg.. LI is near -10 around DC!
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another beautiful sunset, pinks and orange all around on the clouds.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    SPC has been so bad this year. They issue a watch about every little thing, like always. Could have told you looking at the profiles on their website it wasn't going to be a big day. Sometimes just look out the window...
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    eh.. https://ibb.co/QXVtJqm
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Right, I've been thinking that since 2012 wrt Arctic ice melt. It might really accelerate in the coming years. They've been saying the Gulf Stream would slow down for a while, and it's nice to see that buckle without really much 500mb help. I mean there was a weak -NAO, but overnight lows 4 degrees above average says that something greater is going on.. I wonder if that cold push on July 31 over Caribou has some extra-meaning.. probably not but it's interesting. Antarctica ice regression is now-time I think as we had a big global warming push Jan-Mar, and it's timely being now realized. Nice to see the Earth be on par.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah it can become pretty time consuming. A lot of Strong El Nino's though were bad because of the negative subsurface waters below Nino 3.4, causing a -PNA in the N. Pacific, vs just being plain out warm as an El Nino. El Nino should realistically not correlate with a NP High, but a NP Low. If you re-analyze the data, giving weight, the subsurface ENSO = N. Pacific looks much better year to year. The MEI correlated at 0.80 and Nino 3.4 SST correlated at 0.70 to the Winter N. Pacific pattern.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's the gravity wave, Kelvin and Rossby that do all the shaping. They used to have ftp free sites on the CDC where you could make a dataset of anything. I tested all 8+ ENSO variables (OLR, 850mb winds, 200mb winds, SLP, SSTs in different areas, etc, etc. I published the work on easternuswx, that there was a significant correlation difference to the central-subsurface region vs various ENSO measurements in now-time. Now after, I've seen it play out again, in real time. This is a 500mb correlation in the North Pacific. If you want to validate it, just keep it in mind. It's a lot of work to make a custom index, and the best of my knowledge the ftp's on the CDC aren't available anymore.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really interesting timing with Atlantic hurricane season. I wouldn't be surprised to see anti-correlations take place here in the Atlantic wrt hurricane season.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Beautiful pink Mammatus here in Harford Co., in front of a blue-gray-purple sky. It's rained twice, but there is still a decent amount of instability.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a good perspective. If the subsurface defaults back to zero, I would worry about a -PNA this Winter. Everyone will go, "it's strong El Nino 72-73-like", but really the subsurface was just negative that Winter, as with other El Nino events that didn't really work out in the east. Or, ill put it this way, if the subsurface goes back to neutral, I would worry about NAO the anti-correlation that has been happening, or a +NAO is correlating with -epo/+pna, and a -NAO is correlating with +EPO/-PNA. The pattern is more W->E, taking the "North anomaly pattern" out recently, if there is no strong ENSO variable. No strong ENSO forcing would keep this stream going. People don't realize that it's not so much about where the ENSO event is based, as the broad central-subsurface indicator, at least in this satellite era.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty good instability https://ibb.co/cxhy1jk Behind the line even https://ibb.co/sVdXpyT
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    3000+ CAPE along I-95. https://ibb.co/NKJ3L6P
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    The jet stream is pretty far north across the world. There is a lot of potential energy for warmer conditions..
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I keep waiting for it, and it never happens.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's been relative cool, There was a global warming spike, and we have been cooler in comparison to that.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice -EPO for the next ~10 days. Should keep us fairly cool.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Again, the central-subsurface is cooling on a daily basis. The black-box is the PNA-indictor, I've researched/found predicts more than other ENSO measurements. https://ibb.co/hXxSFYq
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