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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, if the ONI is 4.2 and the subsurface is negative, you would be more likely to see a -PNA pattern in the N. Pacific. I know it's getting old, but I'm just sayin'
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still some instability here in Harford Co. I wouldn't be surprised if the severe risk extends back a little west for tomorrow.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    72-73, believe it or not, was a La Nina in the subsurface. That is one time of many the subsurface waters correlated with N. Pacific 500mb vs .16, .21, and .25 sigma levels.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    We are getting so much precipitation. I would love for this pattern to last into the Winter... 2018, 2021 and I think 2022 were false alarms (summer/fall pattern), but we were heavy -PNA then, which we don't have now. 4th favorable summer season start but we have an El Nino now, so it's looking good for now. central-ENSO-subsurface is what I look for, and that is starting to warm again. today and yesterday west and central subsurface have gone Weak-El Nino again, which favors N. Pacific Low.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I measured the trend once, and found no correlation. + or - subsurface raw is the better indicator.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty nice August warm up here.. https://ibb.co/VBYN03V I should have guessed when summer max's started passing, we would finally get warm. 594+dm Crazy how these things continue to happen with a -NAO/AO.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    See, we are seeing this happen again. -NAO's are associated with our warmest times. Inversely, +NAO's could be associated with our coldest times. If this continues into the Winter, I think it could be particularly snowy/wet, given the El Nino. https://ibb.co/fndjcLL
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a great picture. It's been a pretty earth all summer.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://ibb.co/MRC39bT
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wonder, if the subsurface configuration doesn't change, if we see a balance between +PNA's and -PNA's this winter.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    PNA pattern, especially in the Winter time. (I guess a lot of lingering negative indicators like the -PDO, are correlating here with the central subsurface region.)
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Believe it or not, the ENSO subsurface (I've found to be the strongest indicator overall) is barely positive. https://ibb.co/ZWhRppb
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Last Winter the method finished at about +0.30, and the CPC NAO verification was +0.22
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Region A = +0.30, Region B = +0.13 A-B/2 = +0.08 DJFM NAO prediction +0.08 Winter NAO, 65% of the time (May-Sept) through https://ibb.co/56L3cZX If it were to end today, 50% chance for -0.46 to +0.62 (0.54SD) DJFM
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's probably true. 74* and Rain here, I don't see how this is going to get to be that strong.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's only 88F today, not really high enough to validate all this high risk stuff.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Rain today may depress the threat for severe wx tomorrow.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    65-66 and 72-73 -PNA's are the only breaks.. besides that you are like 20/22 in satellite era for stronger events (El Nino = +PNA or GOA low and La Nina = -PNA or GOA high).
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Try correlating that atmospheric layer to something like the PNA or North American pattern.. you'll find it's pretty useless as an indicator. Nino 3.4 SSTs have a higher correlation to the pattern. I made a time series a while ago of ENSO variables, and those 3 sigma levels ranked pretty low. Nino 3.4 and 3 SSTs are better.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice picture. It makes me think of: Earth for sale. Build your $1,800,000 house. only 40-50% taxes. Just an out of place energy.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Models shifted warmer today. I've actually never seen such a great 1-day change over the PNA region. https://ibb.co/9yw36D5 With a somewhat stronger SE flow in the medium-range, I would watch for a severe wx threat Aug 7-10, as the +PNA cold front moves through for mid-month. Models are showing this Aleutian low on the order of -300dm Days 8-10.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since the El Nino broke +0.5c, we have had more +PNA's than -PNA, which for now breaks the trend of -PNA that we saw in the +ENSO years of 18-19, and 19-20. February will be a big test.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is a really strong pattern. https://ibb.co/k6CWVwz You're right, it usually happens in the Winter. August will probably have a negative departure.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm pretty excited, for the time being, the -PNA trend-persistency has broken. Without constant -PNA, with the NAO in the state it's in: weak as a main indicator and oppositely correlating the Pacific, should give us plenty of storm chances. I'm also loving the El Nino/-QBO.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Models have a big -AO developing https://ibb.co/Cpynb4Y ^With +PNA some of the time, it may keep us cooler https://ibb.co/RpyjfYM Here's the correlation (+) https://ibb.co/hZN7RP6 May be cooler in the UM, I wouldn't forecast a heat wave until the pattern changes.. that takes us to mid/late August.
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