Stormchaserchuck1

An El Nino next Winter would be great because we will have -QBO.. The two together favor Stratosphere warmings, or a warm Stratosphere 75% of the time. 23-24 was El Nino/-QBO, but we did have 4 Stratosphere warmings that Winter, a breaking up of the 10mb PV doesn't guarantee surface cold in the mid latitudes, but odds are about 0.2-0.3 correlation for a better Winter if we have those two indexes lined up. 22-23 and 24-25 were both Nina/+QBO and they were both cold 10mb, so the combo has hit 3 Winter's in a row..

Pretty weak with the line here. Definitely much needed soaking rain though.. my grass is brown for first time since 2002. It's been constant moderate to heavy rain for hours today.

Is this line of rain coming through the end of it? That's a big bust in the Slight risk to the north, up to Eerie, PA if that is the case - 2nd day in a row where there are literally no storm reports north of a certain area. Don't know why they do that.

A few of the GFS ensembles are hanging onto the north track I'm afraid temps could be in the mid to upper 30s though

This is the first Stratosphere warming of the cold season, since November. Today's Euro isn't as strong as the GFS on 10mb warming at Day 8+.

The northern, marginal, part of the storm threat today isn't happening so far.. they are more south. Don't know if that carries into tomorrow, temps are a little bit warmer today in the east than projected.

Low 60s in the area today.. a little bit of an upside surprise.

We actually have pretty good temps on the GFS as the storm passes south If it comes north, I could see mid to upper 30s with frozen though, given the -PNA in the Pacific.

Yeah, with the stock market crashing that's probably right

Natural Gas going high again today favors a colder outcome.. let's see what 12z models do with that Day 6-7 storm, and maybe 18z.

Natural Gas is already up +8% today, making it +16% in the last 2 days. When that happens, since it's up to 60-80% correlated to weather, you have to consider what is going on with the global pattern. 1) There is a 970s mb low currently in the Midwest.. almost record breaking so far south. The first major low pressure in the Midwest in a long time. 2) There is a major Stratosphere warming on the horizon.. weeks out. Could the impact have been previously underestimated (NAO correlation)? 3) Per CPC, the PNA has been positive every day since Dec 1st. Now March, is there is a cold-continuum in play here? Although there was a 3 week period in February where it likely wasn't positive, it is the first relative +PNA Winter in 8 years. Does the pattern outperform models in its staying power this year?

I had drifts off of my house of 3' of sleet from the '93 storm. It was originally projected to be 24-36" of snow, then changed 1 day before to a foot and lots of sleet.

NAM is running lol -PNA pattern in the Pacific is no good for this one

Following Sept correlation with March Nino 1+2 Following November (Nov 2025)

Yeah, I'm honestly surprised to see Natural Gas move so much on weather this late in the season, but the model trends in the NAO/AO area are why - it's a lot of the reason. You also can't deny that Day-0 correlation between -NAO and Stratosphere warming there. It pops up at the same time from a non-negative state, so that's a few times I've seen that now in model trend in the last few years..

That's what I've been wondering. A few days ago I was commenting on the disconnect between 500mb and 10mb in the long range, now 500mb has moved somewhat toward it. I think part of the NG move has to do with the -NAO now projected March 7-12, where before they had nothing.. the SSW doesn't really get going until March 11th. It was showing a strong +AO before at 300+ hrs, now it's just a modest signal, but still lower heights over the arctic circle. I've run the correlations, and there is a mean +40dm -NAO signal at Day+0 with SSW (pretty weak), while a +120dm +time (can range from +60 days in October to +10-15 days in March/early April)... so strengthening SSW signal may also be a slightly higher -NAO correlation for like the last week of March and early April.

Models have been trending significantly colder in the long range fwiw. The Euro at 300hr has a -NAO pattern.. before it was showing 70s. There is also the possibility of a cool down the last week of March and early April due to -NAO from lagged Stratosphere warming.. remember, -NAO's effect Europe too.

I just added up the years to find the relative warming trend, and divided it by that. I honestly haven't looked too much into the RONI.

If you adjust for global warming (to still have an even amount of Nina and Nino events), we still need -0.3c or lower for JFM for it to be La Nina.. If Nino 3.4 is 0.0 on March 1st, that's not looking likely to happen.

Natural Gas up 8% today.. maybe that storm has a chance. It is a southern jet piece running into a trough.

I think so, Weak La Nina. SOI has also been positive now 7 months in a row, although not strong.. again a borderline Weak Nina indicator.

Before significantly lowering snowfall averages, understand its been a 25-year decadal La Nina state. Notice the High pressure north and south of Nino 3.4, the largest global anomaly (when the Poles have 3x more average volatility).

I wish the title wasn't La Nina.. it's going to be a ENSO Neutral year/peak.

Showing this year it's more a product of the pattern than a leader... although I do think it reflects global patterns that are happening.

-QBO about 90% probable for next Winter... That makes a possible El Nino a bigger deal, with El Nino/-QBO, we get more Stratosphere warmings. 23-24 had 4 separate Winter 10mb warmings.