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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Fwiw, Natural Gas is trading at 2.9, down from 3.6, which implies a +NAO Winter. Greenland 500mb correlates at +80dm DJF with NG. https://ibb.co/c6X7MyN
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Im about to cancel 24-25 Winter.. we likely will have a +QBO to go along with Nina (same as last Winter)
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z GFS gives us some flakes early next week
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pacific changes from unfavorable to favorable for cold 11/20 AO goes negative 11/24 Models try to give NAO negative as a 3rd wave 11/30, but I'd watch for fluctuations, as the last few weeks has had a lot of NAO changes at that range. Then there is signal for wave dropping into the SW 12/1-2, possibly timing with -NAO lifting out around 12/3-5, but that's far away..
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Historically, when strong Nino's don't act like Nino's and produce -PNA's we get strong -NAO patterns in the Wintertime, but let's see what happens. Nov correlation to El Nino and N. Pacific pattern is less than 0.1, since 1948.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Usually -EPO's verify a little bit cooler anyway.. The Pacific high is a bit south of the classic -EPO position, but the models have been in heavy run-to-run flux and we are in an El Nino..
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    The +PNA is not ending up over the NPH (North Pacific High) position at all so far.. that (+NPH) is usually what happens in east-based Nino events.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    It seems like everytime we are dry since 2002, we get very wet periods soon thereafter. I said back in the Summer I wanted a dry Fall..
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nothing Nino about this.. strong -PNA it looks like for the month of November https://ibb.co/3dppvDs https://ibb.co/YPPdM43 Like I said before, slight correlation to February, but not December.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    BWI: 48” DCA: 37” IAD: 50” RIC: 26” Tiebreaker SBY: 34”
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good post. It's lazy to think that an El Nino produces a -PNA December because a few examples show that. The natural state is +PNA.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    In 2005, I made timeseries of all indexes, and found a strong correlation with N. Atlantic SSTs May-Sept, as a lead predictor to the following Winter's NAO. I don't have the custom index anymore, but you can somewhat see it here: https://ibb.co/M9W0Q63 In the next 17 years, I tested it real time, and found it 13-4 in getting the raw NAO state correct, and in the beginning I estimated a 0.54 SD ("0" is 50% chance of -0.54 to +0.54), and that verifies 9-8, since 2005. Here is this the boxes I calculate, although the most accurate way goes from May-Sept (not May-Aug): https://ibb.co/Y8bTrWL This years SST index comes out at -0.05, so a 50% chance of the DJFM NAO being -0.59 to +0.49 [CPC]. So my supposingly successful method is predicting a "Neutral NAO" for Winter 23-24. Here is this year's raw map and plot: https://ibb.co/ZmQyz8k https://ibb.co/Hx1Mjcs
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    No -NAO today lol https://ibb.co/4mqVZzZ
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z GFS is now developing a -NAO in the MR/LR where it used to have +NAO. Way Above average model run changes since the Spring.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    The NAO actually has a high correlation to precip. 0.4 in December, and near 0.5 for the Winter as a whole. This is why it was so disappointing that last years -NAO didn't deliver: It happened with a wetter than average pattern. I found that there were 2/11 -NAO December's that had a wet pattern (one being last year). I would take a favorable Pacific/+NAO for snow chances 20-30% greater than even.. (of course, you know that when -NAO lifts out we usually get a storm.)
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think as long as the central-ENSO subsurface stays warm it will be hard for a -PNA to sustain. It's still warming despite the neutral MEI
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    These runs are really fluctuating from one to another. Even the ensembles. A few days ago they had a strong LR -PNA, now it's gone.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    People don't understand weather. Why aren't Strong La Nina's cold, if Strong El Nino's are warm? Strong El Nino's are more realistically the blend of the historical analogs of Weak-Moderate-Strong past events put together. Weak El Nino's are more random, or neutral, the cold signal is just a lack of many examples, as it is though somewhat showing the base-Nino state (Weak-Moderate-Strong).
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Opposite correlation, in science you get correlations from 0.00 to 1.00, if you use the negative side you get 2x result. Use anomalies, it mostly works, probably greater than 90% correlated (+ and - side).
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    The last 4 +QBO/La Nina's have been historically bad so I'm hopeful I think the trend of the last 7 years is still strong though, for example: I don't expect 02-03 where it was snowing every day, the Winters surrounding that were more alike.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd kinda worry about the February -PNA trend of the last 6 years, which gives us a +150dm anomaly. NAO might be negative at that time given all the Stratospheric warming signals, but Feb I think is not a blow out in the Pacific.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Why are El Nino's warm in December? What is the physical reason? Why aren't La Nina's cold? Cold Winter's start cold in December, it's the intro month to longer wavelengths season.. the Winter sets in in December at like a 0.30-40 correlation, if you base it on a 200yr period. Really, Oct and Nov should start cold too.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Oct QBO came in at -16.98, and still dropping. Having a Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO is rare... probably 1/25 year type event, for this type of strength of both. In the next few days, I might do some research and post maps about the unusually high 10mb correlation in the Winter.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    The default is +, so +NAO has negative heights over Greenland. Fwiw, -PNA Nov has 0.2 correlation with -NAO December.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nov doesn't historically have a high correlation to the PNA This is after Oct had a decent +pna/-epo correlation that I think we hit. In December the strong N. Pacific influence of ENSO for the Winter starts to present itself
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