Stormchaserchuck1

I doubt it.

This Winter.. seems to be more "normal", doing analog-research and other things throughout the Winter vs previous Winter's that were more "smoothed out through the Hemisphere". 2012, March 2012 is hitting pretty hard as an analog right now, and this was the last relative max, which I think we could accelerate toward this Summer.

Yeah, EPO went negative for a few days. That's why models are showing snowstorms too (they are overinitializing current conditions).

We are hitting this correlation pretty hard on the Atlantic side. I was curious because models show a 597dm ridge over Florida, and there appears to be a slight correlation to higher hurricane season activity in the Atlantic following that.

Look at the Pacific, and how there was a deep downstream trough in Russia, under a ridge.

I give it like 1/20. I think they're trying to understand the 70 degree day that happens first. I also think the changing of NAO is mixed in with this as being a variable.

We seem to need a longer term pattern hold to change. This 7 years of -PNA after a Strong El Nino doesn't make a whole lot of sense, if you are looking at it purely from ENSO. 72-73: 3 years of -PNA. 82-83: 3 years of negative ENSO. 97-98: 3 years of -PNA. 15-16: 7 years of -PNA. We seems to have a greater connection with the upper atmosphere or sun.

EPO looks to go positive Friday, so it may smooth out warmer days thereafter.

I'm getting a signal +2 days from the 1st day of Spring, or Strong -NAO block until March 19th, lifting out for a snowstorm. This is something I've seen as the turn of a calendar event (month or season) as a mathematical anomaly, and now March 1st showing the big -NAO dive on current models.

+EPO is underestimated in the MR/LR. Models have it turning to +EPO while NAO is transitioning to negative. I contend there is still a strong -NAO/+EPO-PNA correlation in play, Not really any chance for snow in that imo. There is some potential that the Pacific could be changing state around March 9th, for one, because of the length of -PNA at that time, when it was strongly transitioning to El Nino in the subsurface back in January.

Look at how weak this has gotten. I still contest that there is a D-0 correlation, so with forecasted -PNA through March 9, we could see much more weakening still.

-NAO will likely rule the pattern March 9-19, -PNA until March 9. There is a stronger precipitation correlation than temperature. Models now develop a +EPO Day 7>, so it may also be hard to get highs under 50° when the -NAO initially begins.

I know I was terrorized until I posted on weather message board. Judgement ensues here..

18z GFS: Baffin Island Low dominates. -PNA dominates. Look at this piece of energy dropping into the NW @119hr: (Tracking the warmup.)

Have to wonder if a big SE ridge early Spring preceeds any kind of Atlantic hurricane season. Last time was 2017,2018,2019.. average storms 17/yr. minus 2013 (SE trough): "The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was a well below average Atlantic hurricane season and the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes." minus 2022 that rocked a little the short term average for Febuary's "v": "The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was the first season since 1997 in which no tropical cyclones formed in August, and the lowest La Niña year since 1998." That's in this era since 2013..

EPS sucks as a model.. GFS ensembles trended to +EPO today Days 13-15 at 12z, ..3 contours over Alaska. To let you know, this current +EPO that is about to end is responsible for Isip, NY breaking February monthly record today of 71 degrees on Feb 16th.

Stratosphere warming on MR and LR models, takes some time to downwell.. The -NAO should max out March 9-19, 2023. That is our window.

The -NAO should max out March 9-19, 2023. That is our window.

We are trending more toward Weak/Moderate Last year's subsurface push all the way through was actually warmer.

The way it's been trending since 2013, and more so since 2019, is as the NAO goes negative, our temperatures peak. We probably will hit some nice 70s in the LR.

SW, US conditions can sometimes be a predictor.

It's been like a +NAO Winter with above average precipitation. The correlation did kind of reverse after 2013 (+NAO more often linked with -EPO/+PNA, -NAO linked with -PNA).

Good job buddy. I did 2nd guess my Winter thoughts when I saw your outlook. (We were trending cold in the Fall).

Now we have a tropical ridge over Florida. (may have to get past this first for -pna weakness, model has been initializing more on current conditions). I'm surprised you guys aren't talking about this. It checks back to a warm day or 2. I would watch for thunderstorms risk. (Maybe some 80s and 90s in the SE as the +NAO hooks up with -PNA.)

Man, do we have a shot of +NAO before it turns negative. Look at this map (warm pattern).