Stormchaserchuck1

I'm surprised that no one mentions that quite a few 6z gfs ensembles loop Idalia back into the NE http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

I count 12 times Nino 4 was <-1.00 anomaly for August, since 1950. Furthermore, it just seems to be a general progression +, as a lot of the older years were colder and recent years warmer (impacts on the pattern less as an enso anomaly vs overall warming trend). 32/36 of the oldest August's were - anomaly. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina4.anom.data. It's a region just warming overall vs ENSO flux

Holds its form pretty well inland

Yeah, a lot of El Nino years became self-perpetuating at this point at the surface. If Nino 3.4 is breaking 1.6 before September starts, there is a good chance the ONI of SON will be in Strong Nino territory.

There is a pretty good warm up happening in the daily subsurface https://ibb.co/cXKwxqq As long as we don't get strong cold water anomalies beneath the western and central subsurface regions, this Winter should not evolve like years of 72-73 and 97-98.

I would like to see us in a drier pattern in the Fall, because we are in a overall soup'd up precip pattern right now (carrying over from last Winter), that is going to hit some time or another imo...

We are still in a AN precip pattern, which I would think would last for EC through the Winter. Last Winter we had a top precip season with -NAO (they are usually drier), and I think the same general pattern is carrying forward..

Well, my ENSO subsurface index is barely positive so you could get some variation in the PNA. This -PNA on the LR models is the most extreme event since March, I'm just pointing that out.. We have obviously had a cooler summer with +pna's until now. These surface events, like the High pressure I'm pointing out, impact the PDO into the Fall (Sept-Nov PDO has a pretty high correlation to the Winter). Weather is always changing, I'm just playing it as I see it.

DCA: +3.5 NYC: +3.5 BOS: +3.2 ORD: +4.0 ATL: +3.8 IAH: +3.7 DEN: +0.5 PHX: +0.0 SEA: -0.8

Man, what a La Nina-pattern on LR models right now. Mild September.

02-03 was the real Winter, 4 months of constant snowcover. I remember seeing the grass 3 days after each of the 3 blizzards in 09-10, That's all. I feel we are in a similar pattern to 09-10, as it is 94F in N. Virginia with a pretty good -NAO today.

I personally didn't like 09-10 so much because the snow melted so fast. We were due for a record setting snowfall in the right pattern since low pressures have gravitated off the coast since year 2000, but these Pac warm air blips quickly following a trough had our blizzards mostly melted in ~3 days. I know most people here love numbers, but these quick variations back and forth with the pna (like today) would give us some warmer air the Wintertime post-storm to melt newly fallen snow. Just initializing out. In other news, Nino 3.4 has just broken +1.5

A trough definitely doesn't support it, as we have a stronger one setting up now, veering Franklin out to sea. The -PNA at Day 15 is still taking shape on models, but it looks like it could pair up with +NAO, which again is a EC, US ridge signal (at day 15+).

Days like today where it casually makes it to 84F, makes me nervous about the Winter. Snow could possibly melt fast, although I think troughs could produce snowstorms.. edit: the pattern is more -PNA today, like March 2023. We need to erase these Aleutian-ridge blips completely going into the Winter, because that is the more constant force right now (-NAO's = Pacific warm air everytime).

With a +NAO (1.32) too...

It happened in 65-66. They seem heavily biased to what happens "in the now", as Day 15 models are showing a strong -PNA developing.

15-day GFS ensembles are going all out -PNA though, which may put a ridge over the SE, US in time for a part of peak season. If a ridge sets up over the NE/SE Canada, that makes Gulf and SE landfalls more likely.

Ben Noll is the top contributor in this thread. It does help to know ENSO mechanics, instead of relying solely on analog-climo for facts. I can't wait to see the string of posts about a +4 Dec and -2 Feb (I have a colder Dec signal). The mechanics of ENSO should work more evenly all winter..

Here you go guys https://ibb.co/gSN5F7W Let's hope this continues into Winter. The 15-day GFS ensemble does show a -PNA, which makes the medium/long term closer to neutral, backing my ~0.4c El Nino subsurface index.

Since 2013, we have had +NAO Winter's almost every year. Since 2016, we have had -PNA almost every Winter. Fix these indexes, and it will be cold enough to snow.. Our "swimming upstream" will come from -PNA, if the ENSO subsurface doesn't stay warm. legit El Nino/-QBO should break the pattern.

I would argue that "bad El Nino's" were not actually an El Nino pattern..

I like that the MEI agrees with subsurface about how weak the Nino really is right now.

Yeah, see how this warming is correlating to +PNA too in 3-11 days! https://ibb.co/0cVDN9G This, I really strongly believe is the key to the Winter (how the subsurface does).

It would be weird if the LR seasonal models miss it this much.. Jan contract of Natural Gas is trading at 3.9, which is closer to average.

I think it's hopeful that our trough/ridges lately (Winter) are connected to ENSO. We don't want to see the El Nino weaken, especially in the subsurface..