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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Subsurface is really heating up. +5c over a large area according to the TAO/Triton maps, which is by far the greatest of the event so far. https://ibb.co/jyXz36R And again, we aren't seeing cold water in the western subsurface, like other Strong events at this time of year. That could negate the tendency for us to automatically flip ENSO states next year.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've been saying watch near Dec 5th for our first possible snow event. This isn't a strong signal, but it's not that far off a really good setup.. https://ibb.co/vdN2TYW The reason is a stronger piece of energy is dropping into the SW around Dec 1-3.. when that moves east if we have this 3-wave setup with nothing else, like a Aleutian High, then we might have a snow event to track. El Nino should keep us away from -PNA as this trends closer, but let's see..
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think the -PDO is really a good reason either: Air dominates water.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe the El Nino is why models are fluctuating so much? I noticed a much greater than average change in the MR/LR models for the first time when the El Nino started up in the Spring, through the Summer, and now with a major model shift in the last few days (now -NAO and +EPO), this is when El Nino is spiking.. it seems like it would be an independent thing, the model flux, but maybe it's related to the El Nino?
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since 2019, almost every single -NAO has correlated with a +EPO/-PNA, and +NAO's correlating with -EPO/+PNA.. that really holds true in these recent shifts. I think something is happening globally that makes it all run together. I would of course, rather see the +PNA/-EPO/+NAO combo and we can get a Winter like 14-15.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think our first flakes are going to wait until that Pacific pattern breaks down. +EPO is the worst pattern for snow, -PNA the second, and models went big in that direction today. But like I said last night, they are fluctuating big time day-to-day. They had a +NAO in the MR/LR a few days ago which is now a big -NAO. Back to the basics: We have a > +2.0 Nino 3.4 strengthening El Nino happening, so we should favor more +PNA or GOA lows, let's see if models drop the big -PNA/+EPO that they, today, have, if nothing else just because of ENSO.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    How about these run to run model changes? Now we have a -PNA and -NAO??
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Moderating under +AO.. will probably veer warm, but this is an interesting setup with developing 50/50 low and GOA low. We don't miss it by a lot. I expect to see a lot of this setup in the Winter (+nao/good Pacific at the same time).
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    We tend to be a little drier in Nov and Dec
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really getting cold after this Wave #3. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/10m_wnd_2m_temp/gfs_namer_237_10m_wnd_2m_temp.gif Colder than 12z run
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think I posted before that Nov has historically low correlation between ENSO and the N. Pacific pattern, that it starts picking up +correlation in the month of December With the subsurface on fire, it's no surprise to see this strong N. Pacific low signal on the LR GEFS https://ibb.co/xj57pjJ as December starts correlating better in the N. Pacific
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    The El Nino is really spiking up right now, both on the surface and in the subsurface, passing +2.0 in Nino 3.4. LR GEFS shows a healthy N. Pacific low: https://ibb.co/xj57pjJ But it also has some ridging in the NE from +NAO, that will need to be sorted out in future model runs (NAO region has been volatile at that range).
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/pmel-theme/pacific-ocean-tao You can click on "Data", then "Data Display" then "Assorted Plots"
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    The ridge gets stuck in the GOA, instead of the WC. Looking at the NAO, AO, and EPO I would guess we have more of a chance at snow.. Canadian low keeps us warm.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't know.. one storm cut up into the SE in 2009, and one storm didn't this year? I think the pattern is above average precip right now generally.. this goes back to when -NAO's were active last Dec and March (anomaly).
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    The event is rapidly strengthening on TAO/Triton. CPC's update usually lags by a week or two.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    We are always blessed to have the Ravens to watch.. 25 years of good interesting football. League is kind of weak this year. I'm always surprised that Lamar Jackson is underrated.. preseason 1/20 odds to win the SB, now 1/10 I still think is low, they are probably 1-3/4, maybe higher than that even with Andrews hurt.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is a warm pocket by the dateline that in relative terms is greater than the eastern regions anomaly right now.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino is rapidly shifting to west-based, and there are no negative anomalies below the western ENSO region. December is the 1st month where there are strong correlated effects in the N. Pacific from the NPH to PNA... we should be golden for a mostly +PNA Winter I think.. The subsurface is different from "Strong Nino's" that had cold water in the western subsurface.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    The subsurface is also rapidly warming, the highest it's been in the event so far. Also to note is there are no negative anomalies in the western ENSO subsurface (a lot of stronger Nino's in the past had cold water below Nino 3.4-4 at this time of the year).
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty good -NAO here. The pattern isn't half bad. +pna building
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the El Nino is becoming west-based.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I do like that energy dropping into the SW in the LR, for the first few days of December. It implies a bigger storm system moving across the country. Ensembles are split, but some want to develop a -PNA at the time, which I would be weary of because ENSO subsurface is + and strengthening, which actually correlates to +pna, but the slight signal for -pna is on LR models right now.. NAO has been fluctuating back and forth on models too, but if we get the -NAO scenario like the LR 18z gfs ensembles have, that piece of energy moving to us Dec 3-5 could be something to watch. We only average 2-3" of snow in December across the region. Some Winter's every piece works out like 02-03, this will be the first test I think. I know we have images of Pacific warm air in our minds from the last few Winters...
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well, yeah.. but it's a variable. No one realizes how big of a bust last Winter was because it was a La Nina.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Natural Gas dropping from 3.6 to 2.9 lately.. Under 3.0 implies a +NAO Winter.
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