Stormchaserchuck1

I'm not one who really agrees that the volcano was the reason for that bad Winter (91-92). It was a decadal peak of the +NAO cycle and +PDO cycle, as a lot of Winter's + had similar conditions. Sometimes you don't have a perfect dataset.. there are just anomalies.

In 09-10 there were some warm periods that mixed in after the big snowfalls. That's the signal I'm getting.. El Nino/-QBO is a strong +10mb signal, which often becomes -AO, but it's been hard for any pattern to be consistent for a while now... it's more likely we'll get +PNA and -NAO/AO periods but they will be transitory, and not accumulate a high anomaly reading, for the Winter overall. The predicted value is -0.05, with a 50% chance of SD of 0.54 which makes -0.59 to +0.49 NAO, 50% chance likely.

My method is predicting a neutral NAO for the Winter. https://ibb.co/BsPkpjX 0.54 SD, tested back at 9-8 in the last 17 years gives a 50% probability for a -0.59 to +0.49 Winter NAO, as per this method (DJFM) [CPC].

I have found that there is a Summer SST correlation to the Winter NAO, so when the atmospheric conditions impact the water, it correlates. https://ibb.co/2hCx3xY The index comes out slightly negative in prediction for this Winter's NAO. https://ibb.co/18sCHwq

Here's your -EPO bluewave.. 18z GFS ensembles has it Oct 24-31.

ENSO subsurface remains almost completely warm east to west, which is different from a lot of Nino analogs of the past at this time (a lot of them started to go cooler in the west/central).

51F, rain. I'll tell you what, in the Winter it would be 12" here in Baltimore and more where I live in Harford Co, just that kind of feel.

A Nino does teleconnect to more of a +PNA pattern. That the ENSO subsurface is mostly warm, with no cold anomalies makes me think the classic idea will work, although only in Weak-Moderate-like range. A lot of "Pacific firehoses" in bad Nino analogs were because of cold ENSO subsurface waters, which we don't have right now.

Yeah, that was a big jump over a few model runs. Now we have a ridge near the Aleutian islands. I think that typhoon phasing into a +PNA N. Pacific trough was the cause -- I've seen other model run shifts and they have to do with tropical cyclones phasing, or thereafter. In other news, the -NAO that I posted about earlier is almost completely gone on LR models. They are still trying to develop a -AO, but it's not nearly as strong as models a few days ago. I've noticed this trend too-- strong -nao's on LR models doesn't trend more significant unless something major is the culprit like a Stratosphere warming. Could be something going into the Winter: every -NAO wants to pop a -PNA ridge with it, while +NAO's coincide with +PNA's. (I was hoping ENSO would change this slate-- that's what's been happening for a few years now).

You would get consistent PNA conditions. It would connect with the NPH (North Pacific High). https://ibb.co/5WXHnNZ The NOI (northern hemisphere-Darwin) and SOI* (southern hemisphere-Darwin) are good measurements.

09-10 had the 4th coldest October on record for the US. Cold air has been harder to find these days.

Yeah. It's staying in Weak-Moderate range though (as per past analogs). A lot of Strong Nino's had cold subsurface waters, and that is really my point for why the pattern was often warmer. Aleutian low's, no matter how strong, should correlate with an EC trough. SE ridges and further east N. Pacific low's to near the West coast, were -PNA patterns driven by cold subsurface ENSO waters. This year is not following that suit that a lot of Strong Nino's of the past did. I was worried that if the event got Stronger the subsurface water would cool.

TAO/Triton https://ibb.co/DRYthLB It's going to be hard to get a -PNA that sticks without <-1 anomalies in the subsurface

Why would you minus El Nino years, this isn't La Nina?

Nino 3.4 is between +1.4 and +1.5 on October 11th.. I don't think there was ever any question that this is not going to be a Super event. We seemed to be breaking records before, and in my opinion that's just because ENSO is catching up to the global warming trend of the last 20 years. ENSO subsurface is not cold anywhere, which is a good sign for legitimate atmospheric responses in the northern latitudes, but it's not very warm, maybe 30-50% of the "Super" events.

This is one heck of a -NAO signal https://ibb.co/tbC17N6 I wonder if it's going to coincide with a warm Stratosphere, and if so, that is a signal to downwell around or before Christmas time, if 10mb warming does go with this.

The subsurface doesn't have much, if any subsurface negative anomalies now (<0). It was proved earlier in this thread that ENSO events graduate over a longer period of time than 1 year, vs the belief that they change like a magnet one year to the next. I've said before that some of the big events of the past had opposite subsurface conditions, creating a different pattern like Pacific warmth across the country. That there are little to no negative subsurface anomalies now tells me: 1) There is more general tendency for +PNA vs -PNA going forward. 2) We are less likely to have a La Nina next year, and it could continue going neutral to ENSO positive. There is still time for negative anomalies to develop, but some of the El Nino years that flipped the following year already had negative subsurface at this time.

In the Winter, that would probably be snow if it were the same pattern.

Now the +PNA is more impressive.. models were backing off for a while. It would be nice to see a pattern last for more than a short time though..

Looks like that is close to Jebman! I would chase it if I still lived out West, in northern CA. Drive up north of Ashland, on the beautiful coast.

You captured the core +PNA there. Compared to what models were showing, it's much later developing, and not as strong. They originally had Oct 8-9 as the start of it, now it's a sheered out at that time. It's in prime position for 3-4 days then it breaks down. I have to think the PDO making a run a -3 right now, which is near record, has somewhat of a reason why it trended less impressive.

Nice little -13.58 and descending QBO to go along with our Winter El Nino. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index You can see if this is impactful ahead of time, as Stratosphere warmings lead -AO's by 15-45 days (depending when in the Winter it occurs). (time sensitive) ^last Winter we had a cooler Stratosphere PV and it was +QBO/La Nina.

This El Nino continues acting like a Weak event (global pattern). The MEI is hitting it right now, and is probably the best measurement to use to assess real conditions.

Real +PNA doesn't get going until Oct 16th now, and then it appears short-lived.

I also have to say that since models settled, the coming +PNA looks pathetic. It is sheared and veered into GOA low/+EPO, then it actually sets up for 3-4 days then collapses. I bet the -PDO played some role in what models showed for this time to what actually happened.