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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm thinking we have a strong ongoing trend in February with a +150dm mean/average Aleutian high (-PNA) for the last 6 Winter's. It has exceeded the correlation for ENSO at 1.8/1. If I had to make a guess, it would be that January is cooler and February is warmer, although we have the chance of having a big -NAO/-AO in February, because of Strong El nino/Strong -QBO impact on the Stratosphere. I think if Feb is -PNA in this 7th year it will likely happen together with -NAO.. or, if the downwelling Stratosphere warming becomes a -NAO, the Pacific at +EPO/-PNA will correlate, because that's what's been happening lately. Of course, the El Nino is +2.1c so that could rule the pattern, but we are not seeing this so far and Natural Gas is near record low when compared to Oil or Gas, usually a warm Winter, or +NAO, signal.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^That's not a good look. We would be flooded with surface warmth.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Natural gas down to $2.46. ya'll doubted me, but here comes the +EPO/+NAO pattern, at least for some time.. There are methods that do work better, but it's one thing to keep in mind as the correlation is very strong.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z Euro has <480dm near the Baffin island Day 7.. ++NAO. No one has said it but the NAO has trended much more positive in the last few days. Watch out, because +epo and +nao if they happen together can be a very warm pattern.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    WOOOHOOO Ravens! You guys are pretty unbearable complaining, the game could have gone either way. What a win!!
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Latest 21z HRR snow totals Like I said, the NAM and GFS snow depth maps from yesterday and the last few days nailed it. They are the way to go.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Those maps are not a qualified 10mb warming event
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    West of the 1058mb High in the Davis Straight is rain lol
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    599dm SE of Greenland! That has to be a record The SE usually averages BN in such a pattern. It's called a south-based -NAO (one of 6 major patterns in the N. Hemisphere).
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z gfs: Widespread 0.1-0.5"
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    One thing I have noticed is our tendency for -NAO around Christmas since 2017, in the midst of a pretty +NAO time. Here's +1-3 days from 12/25 since 2017: https://ibb.co/nw0L2D6
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is more accurate
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Keeping a ridge over the NE, but if we see the same Pacific in January we are likely to see a trough lol
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    snow depth maps always verify the best
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    This forum has an obsession with the element water. In fact, water is very heavy and does not quickly hold or make trends. So many years it's about snow accreting or declination but it really means very little. Same with the PDO, low and high pressures care not about water temps. Air>water.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah because cold air is coming in from the west.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Opposite of last year https://ibb.co/dL5941t
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's one heck of a +PNA/Aleutian trough on the 18z GFS ensembles.. but believe it or not, PNA is only correlated to Mid Atlantic weather at 0.1-0.2 in December. In January it goes up to 0.5-0.6 https://ibb.co/PWB2bSx https://ibb.co/160H289 https://ibb.co/2WBZ6tx https://ibb.co/KKP2ZHQ Still a <-240dm ensemble mean average this far out (days 12-15) is very strong.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    We had like 80 snow days in 02-03
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's pretty cool out today. I was driving around thinking that this is a chilly airmass for it being the start of the warmer period (indexes). It does feel like cooler Dec's before cooler Winter's imo.. Models do trend based on current conditions.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's very hard to go into and out of a -NAO without a Trace or some light snow. I had a dusting last March when the NAO was heading back to 0, and in December it snowed briefly when the NAO was lifting up too.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^ Since 1948, El Nino/-QBO correlates to +anomaly at 10mb in the Winter 75% of the time, and La Nina/+QBO correlates to -anomaly at 10mb in the Winter 75% of the time. The El Nino is +2.1, and QBO -19, so they are both top 15% strongest.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    If it's starting today, the highest correlation to 500mb -NAO starts ~Jan 5-10.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is a strong 11-15 day signal for +EPO on the 6z GEFS. https://ibb.co/sq5tH7X We haven't had any snow in stronger +EPO I think for at least the last 5-6 years. Looking for the model to change (it's been in flux more than average this year), or for that AK trough to become +PNA in the time after... but we likely won't see any snow for the next 15-16 days after today. That can also be a very warm pattern as it evolves.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Doesn't explain why the N. Pacific low ends up in Alaska. Truth is it's just a handful of years, and given more examples, the normal forcing rules will prevail: North and South of where the OLR/heat is on the equator. Here's Jan-Feb.. no correlation over Alaska https://ibb.co/1XjjcNm December.. gasp.. a 0.1 correlation over Alaska lol which I think is just a lack of samples https://ibb.co/V2CyLcG Wavelengths does make Jan-Feb overall a higher correlation though.. no doubt the correlation could kick into gear then.. but I do think it's something else at play really fighting +PNA right now.
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