Stormchaserchuck1

He's low. -PNA's have been hard to develop since the El Nino began. I think we are looking at a neutral to +PNA Winter. Maybe +NAO when there is no Stratospheric warming involved.

The drifts were really something in the Blizzard of '96. I remember crawling up hills to get to the house in 1-2" of ice in '93. I may classify that as a cold Winter

They just flip-out the entire pattern completely. I've seen this especially with Aleutian High's, they will show +300dm on the ensemble mean then the next day it's +50dm, some -epo's, some +pna's, but not wanting to organize in the -PNA region. I've been watching models to 15-day for 5 straight years, and it's never varied so much as this year, and since the El Nino started getting strong. I'm not saying it's going to produce more cold, just that these usually reliable time indicators are verifying much lower. I was getting a +200dm -PNA signal and -200dm +NAO for the 2nd week of Nov, now it's "sheared out" to almost nothing. Just been interesting to watch a random model error consistently happen. (They used to jump from 100dm to 80dm max, now it's like 100dm to 20-40dm).

Models have been busting on warmer patterns like crazy. Seen quite a few major adjustments in the last few months. Since the El Nino began this year, LR model accuracy went down like 40%, especially leading to the more extended period..

I still contest that Greenland troughs are correlating with troughs over the EC, and Greenland ridges are correlating with SE ridges. 13-14, 14-15 story never went away.

95-96 was our last "dry snow" significant winter.

92-93 was a subsurface Weak El Nino. The MEI seems to match the subsurface more than any other ENSO measurement (from what I've seen).

Just like all the other seasonal models, they project out what the current conditions are.

Definitely a warm signal the 2nd week of November. https://ibb.co/NZvcS56

Subsurface is going completely warm mostly throughout for the first time of the event. https://ibb.co/PgkZjgH https://ibb.co/khdBkbZ I think it will be less likely that we see -PNA going into December, despite SSTs.

Even in the Summer a ridge over AK produces cold the EC. You can say it's little south and +NAO amped too, but most of the time a Pacific like this will deliver cold. The low north of Hawaii is in the perfect place too, albeit not very strong.

The 80 degree ridge isn't from the Pacific, ridge over AK and low north of Hawaii is a cold pattern, most of the time. It's a rogue SE ridge, like March 2023.

I wonder if we'll get late November snow this year. It's been a persistent pattern of a trough over the EC 75% of the time since the Spring, so that may carry. I don't really agree with everyone saying warm November and December. Why are Nino's warm in December? They don't know. It just lack of a big dataset, plus La Nina's don't follow the opposite route. I would say 70% chance it's cooler (<+2F) in late Nov and December just carrying forward the conditions of this year. The pattern is quick, but it was a "cooler Summer", "on-time Fall" "on-time Spring", for the most part.. 4-5 days of really warm this week, but it's still -EPO and somewhat +PNA in the pacific (more rogue SE ridge happening than index correlated).

There it is 18z GFS ensembles went much warmer.

The AAM?

It seems to switch back to that La Nina base-state just as we were entering the +correlation time for the Winter (Oct is like 52% correlated, Nov 60%). It just seems to be all around acting as a Weak El Nino event, and I think we could see El Nino patterns in the Winter, but they may be more short lived, and always in a mode of change. If we see 3-4 months of +PNA or GOA low like other El Nino's it would surprise me... Something like the MJO might rise up to be a strong driver this Winter, with lack of other strong connectors. We still favor a +PNA general tendency but it's sheared out a little too much in a fast flow of constant change.

Fwiw, this is a La Nina-base state (-AAM), going into Nov 6, and the 2nd week of November. https://ibb.co/yYXvFkF

Yeah, this has a warm look to it (-AAM), going from the 1st week into the 2nd week of November https://ibb.co/yYXvFkF

Also, with a -EPO for the next 10 days, and a Low north of Hawaii, the Pacific Ocean 500mb is going to look more like an El Nino than La Nina for October at about 70%.

I agree with him that a MEI like this leads cooler than average Winter's.

LR GFS ensemble for Nov 5th looks bad.. -AAM pattern (Nov 1 starts the strong +correlation to the Winter), but maybe we are heading for a better Winter regardless. It looks like a mild start to November.

This is a pretty major trend here with no Aleutian High's on the way. https://ibb.co/3pbmXP4 Going to Neutral, not positive is probably right. I was just talking about the trend direction: It's the highest the PDO has been in a year.

Good news: -PNA was not able to form despite strong long term modeling trend. We have a -EPO pattern now setting in, and there has been a rogue low south of the Aleutian islands as well. This is rapidly shifting the PDO positive at this time. I've seen now since the Spring, 4-5 times where it looked like models were going toward a -PNA, then they just couldn't do it, it ends up being light +pna, -epo.

I personally think that a dry Fall will lead to a wetter Winter. We've been "filling an average" for a couple years now. This was very clear in the Spring to Summer.

Man was this off, and it got 5 likes lol. A +NAO is now occurring, as that had to be one of the biggest trends I've ever seen on MR models. It also has been all over the place in the Pacific.. I've been looking at GFS ensembles every day for 4-5 years, and recent trends are definitely the biggest bust I've seen in the 10+D. It went to -PNA then away from -PNA (now), just -EPO, It was showing +PNA in the beginning... I think the Strong El Nino is messing with LR model accuracy, but again, that's easily the biggest trends I've ever seen in the last 5 years in term of LR GFS ensemble mean verification.