Stormchaserchuck1

My threat window It didn't snow, but I think I got a favorable pattern correct. -PNA consistency killed the snow chance.

Just a monster -PNA on 12z GFS ensembles right now through Easter and beyond. Next Winter El Nino and -QBO likely gives us some Stratosphere warmings(high correlations), but I wonder if the -NAO will kryptonite again like this Winter. It may do good with a El Nino-connected+PNA temporarily, but I think in the bigger picture it is going to even out as a generally unfavorable pattern (I'm talking about Hadley Cell expansion).

Has that ever happened before? I see a correlation globally to how Greenland is completely "breached". Historical high correlation patterns have been opposite to a W->E elongated ridge or trough from Greenland to Florida, vs a normal cutoff or amplified pattern, since 2019, and more so 2021-2022-2023. Something physical that could connect if attention lessens is Artic ice melt in the Summer, melting more as we just have an easier flow from the Tropic of Cancer to the Poles.

There is a legitimate -PNA on models in April. This goes out to the extended, April 10th. We are also seeing -NAO correlating with warm pattern along the EC, US, which we have seen since 2019. This is the dominate pattern. If an El Nino does develop, it's not the main driver right now. So I'm interested to see if it gets stuck at where global SSTA-maxes are (falling under random) (obviously it's a pattern, but a Strong El Nino could be really hard to achieve).

Look at this, guys. More of the same pattern (warm underneath -NAO).

Hadley Cell expansion index (my estimation) is about equal to a +3-4c El Nino right now. This correlates with -PNA conditions, and a -NAO in 1-2 years time, (it lifts up to -nao/ao+time). This means that to match the highest frequency globally right now, we would have to have at least a +3c Nino 3.4 El Nino (+4c longer term). (a negative -nao/ao from this is not organic, so over the course of, say, a decade it would not dominate. an example of this is Winter 09-10, hadley cell expansions move up and out to release.)

We aren't letting go of -AAM on 15day LR models, and -PNA isn't shaking either. Usually in Moderate to Strong El Nino's, you start to see some atmospheric response by now. I did do a study that said March 20-April 3 was historically slightly opposite of developing ENSO's general state, so the trend is bucking so hard there, but I think we have been in a strong -PNA regime since November, and it might not break more than the El Nino's strength can get (in general). (I think a good test is to see how active the Atlantic Hurricane this year is, I would favor more activity like 2002 or 2004.)

Hey Jeb, how cold do you think it will have to be to have the spray on the hose turn to ice/snow before landing on the ground? Maybe -50F. I've done it from a balcony and rooftop before lol. Just freezing rain.

I know the gfs shows snow, but it's warm outside, and this looks like rain.

Really warm waters in the western subsurface.. +4c, to become +5c in a few days. I think this is record breaking for 160E minus 140W, as the central subsurface is still in the negative. ENSO events, and stronger El Nino's in the early stages have in the past had warm subsurface waters along the entire thermocline, from west to east as the event developed, so this happening is even standing out from saying, an oncoming El Nino. Again, we have seen these warm western subsurface waters push east the last two years March-May, and then we fell back to La Nina both times so let's see if the same pattern happens again. I know we have had "beginning points" in ENSO for longer term trends, for example, Nino1+2 vs Nino 4 differences (warm vs cold) starting in the year 2000.

Hadley Cell's are just really expanding north right now. I'd expect an active Atlantic Hurricane season if El Nino conditions don't develop.

Despite the developing El Nino, the Pacific Hadley Cell is not changing (-PDO). http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

They are more common in +NAO's (Not what's happening). Get the Greenland block out of my face any day lately. The pattern is more W->E vs N->S

Spring pattern is setting in, despite highs in upper latitudes. 6z GFS shows a lot of snow falling, but not much/any accumulation.

Check out how, as a 2nd point, the Hadley cell expanding is sending ridging all the way up through the NW Pacific Ocean. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

Ridging in the NW Pacific Ocean is reflecting a very far north Hadley Cell. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

Really beautiful Spring day today, everything is out in full bloom, and this has the fullness/broadness/depth that I can't remember happening this early. 96-97 was an early bloom, maybe close to equal, I lived in Baltimore city at the time and flowers/leaves were trying to come on by March 15-25. I remember rooting against the snowstorm March 31st that was suppose to give us 12"+ originally, it ended up being all rain based on a last second move, I dropped some of my interest for snow at that point. The NAO is at +600dm right now and you can tell that it doesn't even matter, as life is bursting through, to the tops of trees, it seems from the ground. It's been 55-60 degrees for 3 consecutive days under pacific-atlantic-Polar blocking. last few days of Feb/1st week of March was really "naturally warm" now, at this time, i've noticed, sun radiates brightness really warm.

This configuration is very -AAM at +Day 15, so the N. Hemisphere taking on El Nino-base state isn't happening. https://ibb.co/JxXZ1Tw

The western subsurface waters are really warm so it has plenty of fuel... It waned a little bit but March isn't late for a Strong Nino to still take hold. What I worry about is this constant -PNA in the N. Pacific, which models have even at D-15 now. Usually there is a small, but decent correlation between developing ENSO events and N. Pacific pattern in the late Winter.

More of a -PNA on the 0z NAM.. bigger SE ridge. After it was so warm today in already the pattern change, this is par I guess, it's hard to get so warm without a -PNA north Pacific ridge. models are a little behind in this regard. We still have time to trend imo.

Out to 120.. looks like we want to build a CAD wedge to plenty of blocking to the north.. like I said, differences between NAM and GFS in the Pacific is that there's still plenty of time to trend.

Here you go guys.. good step 120hrs.. fine

18z GFS still way different from the NAM out west, will need to be worked out. https://ibb.co/sscbm9y big difference for 69hr

After today 60 degrees.. it's going to be a colder pattern. Models are running a lot like that, so I don't see why the SE ridge wouldn't trend less with blocking to the north.. It's usually easier said than done: 1 pattern is greater than another pattern, but I think this gravitating south to the gulf stream could make sense. If we can get this storm to happen on the 11th or before we should be fine..

In the 60s, these patterns used to really deliver. 18z NAM looks good, imo. It's really favorable in the upper levels so I'm not going away.