Stormchaserchuck1

Baltimore favored at home by 3 against Miami? Geez. I feel like we are dominating teams: I think they have had the lead like 92% of the time all year (SF, DET, SEA, JAX, CLE, LA, CIN, etc).

It looks like the GEFS have a Aleutian/N. Pacific high Jan 5-12. I've found that early in its long term phase (the N. Pacific high), it doesn't effect the SE Ridge as much as later in its phase, and we have seen lately, several years in that it is effecting the SE ridge everytime it basically can. I'm going to say that we don't see snowfall until that variable changes, which could be sometime after Jan 11-12. One of the net effects that we have seen is that there is a lot of surface layer warmth. It may not cause a net SE ridge, but it will negate other patterns.

Not really, there is a strong NAO correlation. There are great resources through the CDC daily climate composites that allow you to backcheck things going back to 1948: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ In looking at the whole timeset, I found a strong +time correlation to 10mb warmings and -NAO (500mb). It varied at different times in the year: Stratosphere warming Oct 30-Nov 15 has highest -NAO correlation at +45 days (Dec 15-30) Nov 15-30 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +40 days (Dec 25-Jan 10) Dec 1-15 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +35 days (Jan 5-20) Dec 15-30 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +30 days (Jan 15-30) Jan 1-15 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +25 days (Jan 25-Feb 5) Jan 15-30 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +20 days (Feb 5-20) Feb 1-15 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +20 days (Feb 20- Mar 5) Feb 15-Mar2 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +15 days (Mar 1-15) March 1-15 Stratosphere warming has highest -NAO correlation at +15 days (March 15-30) etc.. They vary in effects to the troposphere at different times of the cold season, but I found I strong correlation +time (since 1948). Here are the NAO effects on our temperature (+40-50% correlation): https://ibb.co/jDLnWvp You may argue that the current pattern is more dominant, which is something I might agree with, but there is a lot of proof of 10mb warmings having net effects.

We had a 30-day Stratosphere warming last Winter Feb 14-March 15. https://ibb.co/601Xr3H It did downwell to the troposphere to effect the NAO https://ibb.co/GT59g8v The problem was that we had a bad Pacific (too) and a SE ridge popped https://ibb.co/82qyFTz Before that we had a Stratosphere warming in January 2021 https://ibb.co/JkdhgnK This is how that one effected temps +time https://ibb.co/d0zFmC1 We also had one in January 2019 https://ibb.co/Z6CKVjd Again, a SE ridge pops (+normal-time-to-impact) https://ibb.co/Y8yhTPR Feb 13-March 15 2018 https://ibb.co/BcdvyNd One of our colder ones recently https://ibb.co/pQTCrh9 Really impacted the NAO +time https://ibb.co/TmzxvwT

Same.

It has literally never gotten one right when against other models.

578dm -NAO and 554dm -EPO.. pretty good run @384. I think they are really anticipating Stratosphere warming: It has +3 correlation on NAO at +0D but +10 correlation at +20-30 day. But even so, the last 3 Stratosphere warmings have effected us when the Pacific also became unfavorable (so negatively) so it should be interesting

We need below average https://ibb.co/k1hPWtw

Aleutian ridge is weak but it's there

Yeah just keep making money on the Ravens this year

Jan 6-7 looks warm on the ensembles

Line is now +6.5.. whew. Again, Lamar is 11-1 vs spread as an underdog. I don't know why he is underrated... preseason they had the Ravens 1:21 super bowl odds when his career record was 29-7.

Temps are really pretty warm though. That's a 998mb low in SE Canada.

60 degree Christmas. I love it. We're doing steaks on the grill outside.

I think we're seeing signs that there could be a good Winter period coming, but it's not going to be a wall-to wall Winter at this point. For one, the Aleutian ridge is not nearly as strong this year as previous years, and that has been our kryptonite.

That's probably rain verbatim. Models backed off on the -epo today that they had developed yesterday around that time.

That's a good +NAO on the Euro Days 7-10. This is what I was talking to psuhoffman about before, the NAO and epo/pna are inversely correlated these days.

Central-subsurface has moderated a lot in the last few weeks. https://ibb.co/hm3v3XS The event has probably peaked, or is close to peaking. Still not really getting those deep negatives below the western subsurface, like you see in years where we transition from El Nino to La Nina.

Some of you might be surprised that -EPO (raw) is our best pattern for snowfall:

You might be surprised that some of the cold patterns are not big differences in snowfall overall because of less precip. First the NAO, here is temperature and precipitation correlations in the US Winter: https://ibb.co/0ZTGpM4 https://ibb.co/sFrQvTf NYC: 0.45 air temp correlation 0.45 precipitation correlation so really, a Net "0" air temp + precip correlation to NAO(-) in NYC. DCA: 0.47 air temp correlation 0.48 precipitation correlation so a Net "-0.01" temp + precip correlation to NAO(-) in DCA. I think it's tricky because in the NE, the average temperature dips down to the 40's and upper 30s, which is slightly above borderline-freezing. So a little cold air may be seen to be valued more than it actually is. Second the PNA, here is temperature and precipitation correlations in the US Winter: https://ibb.co/6RfXMMT https://ibb.co/r3BGBnX There is actually a negative correlation here! NYC: 0.05 air temp correlation 0.30 precip correlation so really, a Net "-0.25" air temp + precip correlation to PNA(+) in NYC DCA: 0.20 air temp correlation 0.38 precip correlation so a Net "-0.18" temp precip correlation to PNA(+) in DCA. Again, because it's a cold pattern, and temps on average don't go below the upper 30s/40s, it may seem like those few degrees to freezing are a bigger deal than they are but the conditions are much drier. Third, the EPO, here is temperature and precipitation correlations in the US Winter: https://ibb.co/8BJ9Hjk https://ibb.co/k358zck EPO has the most +correlation to snowfall, or favorable phase -EPO net resulting in +snowfall NYC: 0.38 air temp correlation 0.12 precip correlation so a Net "+0.26" air temp + precip correlation to EPO(-) in NYC DCA: 0.39 air temp correlation 0.08 precip correlation so a Net "+0.31" temp precip correlation to EPO(-) in DCA Out of the PNA, NAO, and EPO, the EPO is the only index that has +raw correlation to snowfall (air temp + precip raw). [AO is similar to the NAO: 0.5 temp correlation in DCA 0.42 temp correlation in NYC 0.52 precip correlation in DCA 0.42 precip correlation in NYC so a "-0.02" Net precip + temp in DCA to -AO a "Net 0" precip + temp in NYC to -AO Net colder patterns are thought to be more snow-favorable because of where we stand with that 32 degree freezing line.

This isn't so bad https://ibb.co/2FK2CjN kind of a big change

About 75/25 likely to see +PNA in a January El Nino. https://ibb.co/qCDbmYw

The last 3 have occurred with a -pna/+epo when they downwelled. It should be interesting to see what this one does, it is a Stronger Nino.

In January, that N. Pacific/GOA trough correlates with a trough in the EC. Hopefully it can build further, that's one run with it.