Stormchaserchuck1

That's a +3SD +NAO on the 18z GEFS hr 168. It connects with the lower part of the measurement in Europe and the US, too. Just impressive.. we haven't had much of that strength since 1997 (0 +analogs for the exact dates, Jan 22-28, since 1997).

I don't know.. this mid-Winter is doing a pretty good job with cold. I think we just really that much underestimate the PNA.. When it's positive, cold air seems to be no problem.

Cold water is starting to breach the central-subsurface region https://ibb.co/VBXkpzz Believe it or not, but this central region correlates most to PNA, so if we start seeing below average there it could favor more -PNA conditions going forward. Interesting because the surface is still in Strong-Nino territory, subsurface index is about -0.1 right now. Late last Winter we had +subsurface and a weak Nina at the subsurface, and we saw a very -PNA February, so the relative difference correlation that I estimate to be true didn't hold up.. so it should be interesting to see what happens this Feb/March with the opposite relative condition occurring this year (neg subsurface, +El Nino surface).

I might go with an above average March. 3/3 roll forwards support it so far.. plus the SOI is like +25 lately 18 Jan 2024 1011.14 1002.35 19.70 2.12 -2.79 17 Jan 2024 1011.11 1000.95 26.15 1.47 -3.26 16 Jan 2024 1011.57 1000.25 31.61 0.63 -3.72 15 Jan 2024 1012.37 1001.05 31.61 -0.18 -4.22 14 Jan 2024 1012.57 1002.35 26.43 -0.84 -4.63 13 Jan 2024 1012.32 1002.65 23.84

The +PNA has really improved on medium range models over the past few days, and the long range.. looking at next 15 days, we have a pretty good Pacific for the whole period.. This is a pattern change from what we were seeing in Dec and early January. I'm just afraid the indices waxes and wanes lately, so far in this El Nino

It's new snow coming. I like it because it uses upper air temps to assess accurate ratios.

0z Hrr has a good strip of 4"+ through central MD on snow depth! I wonder if they are narrowing in on that it was the same area that got hit hardest by the last storm..

21z RAP comfortably puts 3-4" over northern MD, Agrees with the 18z Hrr that had 3"+. The global models had been putting down less. Last storm the RAP verified with totals, it just didn't get the area right.

That ratio is way too high. this is more realistic

I don't remember to be honest. I did research on ENSO events and the QBO in 2008, and east-vs-west based ENSO events in 2008 published on easternuswx, so it may have been pointed out as a favorable time with west-based Nino and -QBO, but I don't know if I predicted that Winter.

18z GEFS has one heck of a +NAO Jan 22-28.. +2-3std. I went back to 1948, and found the top 20 matching analogs for NAO events on those dates: Positive analogs: 1949, 1950, 1957, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1983, 1989, 1990, 1997 Negative analogs: 1958, 1964, 1966, 1975, 1980, 1987, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2021 I found that the NAO actually reverses the first 2 weeks of February! *This is interesting because 80-85% of the time when you are doing a roll forward with a strong one-sided atmospheric state, it usually continues. Feb 1st roll forward 500mb: https://ibb.co/1J075Z9 Feb 3 roll forward 500mb: https://ibb.co/4jWSWVx Feb 5: https://ibb.co/1qVZJFB Feb 7: https://ibb.co/3cCq7wC <- stronger -NAO signal appears Feb 9: https://ibb.co/kMwLd66 <- Strongest -NAO signal Feb 11: https://ibb.co/Vxm6pg2 Feb 13: https://ibb.co/NTDfhpJ Feb 4-13 -NAO matches current ongoing 10mb warming probable time to "downwell" and impact 500mb US Temps: https://ibb.co/PMZVS6s

Stratosphere warming at this time of the year, correlates to -NAO in +20 days (happens about 2/3 times). https://ibb.co/z84pgX1 Today and tomorrow are the peaks in 10mb warming I think.

The Globe has more precipitable water right now than it has ever had before (on satellite record), even into the higher latitudes.. 15-16 is #2.

The AN factor is a very positive NAO and AO (approaching +3), with +EPO being a factor some of the time too. Those are dominating, but the PNA is not part of that equation right now.

In this example, the +NAO is a warm variable, yes. In the 3-5" snowfall, -NAO was a factor too, yes. Let's see if the +PNA/-EPO/+NAO and -PNA/+EPO/-NAO correlates in February.. the pattern is about 0.40 (+40% of the time) together in the last 5-11 years. And I see a high probability for this to happen next month.

+PNA models have is extreme. I would bet against it.

We should be fine by early February. There is a Stratosphere warming happening now https://ibb.co/59rRrb2 My issue is after the coldest day of the year Jan 27th, we have recently had a tendency to warm up real fast, especially in late February.

The southern part of the -NAO has been missing.. 50/50 low and N. Atlantic trough. There have been a lot of years where there was ridging over Greenland, and it was determined to be a neutral or positive NAO. Your stat seems impressive for the EC, but cold/warm there is part of the bottom half of the NAO calculation I think.

Back to light snow.. it's been going back and forth. A lot of models had it ending, or dryslotting between 1-2am so I'm glad it's still snowing to the west of DC..

Moderate snow here for the last 15 minutes, bigger flakes. 4" total. It looks like radar is backbuilding still! Both the 6z Hrr and RAP had no more than 1/2" to southern PA.. edit: tiny, nice flakes again. lots of them! The coastal must be developing.

Nice band coming for DC! I like how the radar looks.. a few models had less activity in the south part of the band right now. 05z Hrr has less than 1" more here.. I don't know about that..

My 9th grade science teacher referred me to DT who posted on Wright-weather. That was in 2001.

Snow pretty good again here, nice small dendrites. It was lite for the last 45 minutes, now started picking up again

Congrats! I think I'm over 3" here

Surprised.. models were all over this yesterday. They upped the totals in TN way up, and were going more negative with the trough. All you had to do is see what they were doing with everything vs reading the output totals verbatim. LWX did well I think, although they could have issued WSW's yesterday when it looked like the coastal was going to become stronger.