Stormchaserchuck1

Not over 15 named storms in El Nino, I think ever.. maybe this year we'll break it, at 16.

Big time -AAM here https://ibb.co/DgfwdwX Maybe we'll be disconnected until November, then magically correlate to El Nino like last year.

Anyway, this is really setting up to be a hot pattern mid April. https://ibb.co/DgfwdwX -AAM, says what El Nino?

Let's hope for a +NAO next Winter.

We haven't really been realized, because the Summer pattern's have been stagnant since 2012. Added moisture will make us hotter I think.

July clouds again. -like a hot, hazy 90 degree day, lite cumulus veering off to the side in the humidity. I'm really interested to see what kind of heat we experience this Summer.

There's not even a pattern that is favoring this warmth. It's all organic. Crystals in the Bermuda triangle or something lol

This is a pretty good +NAO here. https://ibb.co/wM1p55N Look at how it does it again, +PNA correlates to +NAO, and -PNA/+EPO correlates to -NAO. The Atlantic is completely breached, as that a subtropical block would essentially even out under it, sometimes via the Pacific.

In like a lion, out like a ide https://ibb.co/26dq2cT https://ibb.co/C1FGzWv

Summer-hot pattern also on D-15 models. https://ibb.co/fGMcCM2

The cumulus in the sky looks like July. July clouds. It's probably going to be a hot Summer.

Please don't give me a -NAO next Winter until we saturate this pattern alot..

I believe now that pressure systems are better than high latitude blocking. 13-14 and 14-15 both had ++NAO. and 15-16 was ++GOA low. Again, until we max out the raw global energy potential..

My old home Mount Shasta, CA has a point and click forecast of 35"! They are 3500' and have about the same climate as us.

09-10 was horrible. I've never seen 3 blizzards melt in 3 days each time like that. Would have rather there been no snow. That's why the start of the warm/stagnant pattern was somewhere 05-08.

The patterns sort of ante'd up in extremes this Winter. I would say, for example, a normal effective -NAO is >+1000dm, vs +600-700dm's historically. Because of expectations it will never reach that, although the potential is there at this time. If we don't stretch the pattern, it will keep stagnating snowless for us which is what I fear... A little off topic but that's what's going on.

I would say that since we've had above normal precipitation, a hotter Summer is more likely this year.

DCA +3.6 NYC +3.8 BOS +3.9 ORD +3.6 ATL +4.0 IAH +3.3 DEN +0.5 PHX +0.0 SEA -1.0 *edited 3-31

That's a good point about 2017. This current regime started more in 2016, like I said there seem to be consistent happenings in consecutives of years. The last two years, between March and May we had pretty significant ENSO warmings, and both times we ended up in positive territory. This is the 3rd year in a row. After May both of the last 2 years waned off into La Nina. So with +2.3c Nino 1+2 in 2017, and real warmth in Spring 2021 and 2022, all 3 years going La Nina later, I'm a little trepidatious especially with the N. Pacific consistently showing -PNA through, right now, Day 15+ models. (although it's hard with the thermocline looking like that, right now, to not go into El Nino. (the western subsurface is also +,somewhat unconnected,fuel for eventual +ENSO -which may be happening right now, an evening out of global SSTs))

I think the 2012 analog is a good one. The La Nina was not effecting last April-November, as we had mostly +PNA during that time. It seems that for the last few weeks, the SE ridge in the US has been blasting, and it has been interesting to watch models over and over trend toward a correlating -PNA(Aleutian ridge), which makes me think that the whole -PNA system is part of this ongoing Hadley Cell expansion, vs a mechanic like it being ENSO-driven, at least right now. As time passes other things clear, and 2012 keeps popping up.

The rate of warming right now is what people are going on. Matches: 1954- to weak opp event 1957- to moderate opp event 1964- to weak opp event 1965- to strong opp event 1972- to strong opp event 1973- to strong opp event 1976- to weak opp event 1978- to neutral 1988- to strong opp event 1997- to strong opp event 2003- to neutral 2007- to strong opp event https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php DJF-JFM-FMA, rapid changes, because this year will be. 6 strong opp events 1 moderate opp event 3 weak opp events 2 neutral events 0 same state events same # strong events than not (6/12). 10/12 opposite enso events. 0/12 same enso events [La Nina] and 0/6 4th year La Nina's.

I think Dec-Feb 2017-18 Boston getting only 2" of snow, then the headfakes of going into a snowier Winter (Fall 2018 and Fall 2022), not happening, were also accelerants in this direction.

I think Hadley Cell expansion could correlate to more activity (recent): PNA Feb-Apr (this year qualifies as extreme -(plus analogs)): minus2022.. 14NS- plus2021... 21NS plus2020.. 30NS plus2018.. 15NS* minus2017.. 17NS- minus2016.. 15NS minus2014.. 8NS plus2009.. 9NS* 4 -PNA.. 19NS/yr 4 +PNA.. 13NS/yr *2009 and 2018(plus) did go into an El Nino and only had 12NS/yr -2022 and 2017(minus) did go into La Nina and had 15.5NS/yr

We did it again

You would see something like -PNA index April 1-10 in developing El Nino's (Nino 1+2>0.5) comes out like.. 5 El Nino's, 1 Neutral, 3 La Nina's by the end of the year.