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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    It may adjust so the later part of the storm is warm, while the earlier part is cooler, if it digs deeper. I don't like that Aleutian high popping when the trough is starting to dig across the region (hr144). I'm talking about during-for the storm.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still.. with 50/50 low, -NAO, and GOA low, it's close to the setup of a big storm. My main concern is warmer temps as the PNA is trying to go negative as the trough pushes through.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    2m temps are approaching +6c in DC. It might be hard to get accumulations south of 40N.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's not that far off what we have going for Dec 5-6.. northern Greenland ridging going into the Arctic circle.. check. main problem is that -PNA tries to take over the GOA/+pna trough too soon, It becomes an Aleutian island ridge when the trough is hitting the east coast. better chances earlier, it's weird that the earlier wave goes negative so far west.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Seems like we have a -NAO with the 50/50 low being the stronger signal.. two >+120dm regions not related to the storm, so that's a strong signal. Also to note is that in -NAO we are drier than average at a 0.40-0.50 correlation, so it usually hits big or much less (STJ phasing).
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Do you have a composite of December snowstorms at BWI? or even Nov-Dec?
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a really nice 50/50 low setting up on the 12z Euro before the Dec 5-6 wave. GOA low too, Not far from being a big storm.. temps here do seem to be somewhat marginal though.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    This hits the STJ A little late to the phase, but it's nice to see it drop down to 958mb pretty quickly
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z Euro has 1" of snow here Dec 5th. I was talking about the time period earlier as a good +pna/-nao opportunity, it looks like the wavelengths in today's runs are more to match the upper latitude pattern.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what I think is interesting.. we have a slight window around Dec 4-5 for cold, and we pop a SE ridge https://ibb.co/KyLRXY8 Not all the time everything is correlated, but we saw the same thing last March.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Shoutout to the LR GFS that doesn't show snowstorms anymore if we aren't going to get snow. I've been noticing this for years.. in the early 2000s they always had a snowstorm.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    A -PNA December during Strong Nino? I think they were using analogs to say that December would be warm, without really knowing that ENSO correlates with -NPH(North Pacific High) (lack of samples).
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    -QBO's and El Nino's have a high historical mean of +10mb anomaly, and the same visa-versa. I wonder if that factors into a model bias.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Day 10 Euro: NAO is going positive, PNA is going negative.. https://ibb.co/N3XZNRB
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Especially because the OP GFS is so warm
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    There are many factors at play, ENSO is one of them. So far in this El Nino event, we have seen a N. Pacific trough more often, but it's still correlating on the level of like a Weak El Nino. Usually Dec and Jan is where that correlation picks up, but we'll see.. I know '97 and '82 had massive N. Pacific low's right now.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, they're both doing well with their analysis. Bluewave's showing of how we have followed similar progressions as the last few year's makes me think this Feb won't be a huge +PNA-Nino like everyone thinks (Hopefully we have -NAO).
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    It seems like we have a stronger relative SE ridge. Last Winter the N. Pacific ridge was extending into AK and the GOA a lot, and I was thinking "well maybe that's just an extended -PNA" and that a AK/GOA trough wouldn't really hurt us, or it could favor a trough. Now we have a slight +epo and it seems to be killing our pattern completely. I just think it's a case where 65/35 of the globe is warm, and we have a stronger relative SE ridge. The Pacific pattern on models isn't really that strong, especially compared to -nao.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks like some unfavorable phases coming up https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    -NAO's have certainly been harder to stick lately, for the last few decades.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    The neg NAO starts with -PNA. https://ibb.co/HP6Kzqx PNA never really goes positive through current 15-day models, so let's see if it trends (El Nino)..
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we may have a -PNA this February. The 6-year running mean is +150dm over the PNA region.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hopefully we have a +PNA by then. That is some interesting energy moving across the US around Dec 4-6 though.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    In a lot of cases, it has been just as strong as the warmth is in the eastern subsurface. Some years like 1972 had mostly negative subsurface waters, while the surface was Strong Nino. 0-300m, yes.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Subsurface is really heating up. +5c over a large area according to the TAO/Triton maps, which is by far the greatest of the event so far. https://ibb.co/jyXz36R And again, we aren't seeing cold water in the western subsurface, like other Strong events at this time of year. That could negate the tendency for us to automatically flip ENSO states next year.
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