Stormchaserchuck1

We also have an ongoing record of 10 straights February's with +NAO (CPC) 2014 1.34 2015 1.32 2016 1.58 2017 1.00 2018 1.58 2019 0.29 2020 1.26 2021 0.14 2022 1.68 2023 0.92 1950-60 March -NAO ties the index record with January 09-19 +PNA for 11 consecutive years. 1966 was a very -NAO February, and I know -PNA February's in El Nino's can sometimes pop big -NAO's so we'll see

I think February is a big test as to the decadal -PNA we are in. The N. Pacific anomalies over the last 6 Winter's are the greatest we've ever seen in an area at 500mb on record for the same month over a 6-year period. (Feb 1964-1969 -NAO comes in 2nd)

You really think that's a -pna, with a trough across the N. pacific from Japan to the West coast? It seems like LR models are evolving this way, and my research has highlighted the Jan 19th period as the pattern change, so let's see if it holds going forward. If a trough develops under a -WPO ridge, we may be in business. I would also like that Pacific pattern to develop before the NAO is rising up from negative (KU storms). The SE ridge/Aleutian ridge may linger though, I'm not 100% on that changing before the 19/20. But these are really good trends today in the PNA region for the long range.

It does look like the GEFS wants to spill +heights into the EPO-WPO domain now. I guess it's caving to the EPS in this regard?

I'm thinking they use '91-20 averages for one. Let's see where we're at on the 20th, I bet most places in the eastern US will have above average temps for Jan

rose colored glasses. That pattern isn't going to work (if you want snow in the east). Maybe after the 20th

Yes

No, that's a nasty N. Pacific high, and now SE ridge. We aren't going to snow until that pattern changes.

Our "wheelhouse"? Do you realize it hasn't snowed 1" in 710+ days? Jan 27th is our coldest day of the year, so it's usually somewhat safe to predict colder weather around that day, but I think we could be waiting longer than you currently indicate. I did this research earlier, but it has held true to where it's going to happen that Jan 5-13 is a strong N. Pacific/Aleutian island High building during El Nino. I did 15 analogs (since 1948) matching PNA with opposite or Neutral ENSO state on those dates, and found that there is a strong indication that the pattern completely changes, in about a week after the 13th. This is a really good reversal on the composite, and you usually don't see that, especially in the PNA region, you usually see consistency rolled forward... This rolls forward to a +PNA Jan 18-19->, and East Coast goes to average or below average temps on and after Jan 21-22: https://ibb.co/xzVYnx5 https://ibb.co/kGL4bZp

I still think we're going to go warmer after 18z

I'd be curious to see if a 3 sigma -NAO can overpower a 1 sigma -PNA right now to be honest. The -PNA may verify greater.

It's been since March 2018 that we had -NAO-based trough/cold in the east. Every other time it has happened with a -PNA or +EPO and we have gone warmer.. I don't really see this trend stopping, the correlation is close to 0.40 since 2019. My roll forwards did show the Pacific changing around 1-19.. The GEFS starts doing it 1-18. But the -NAO happens on the model 1-8/17 with it looks like a slight SE ridge. This is something that I think is going to stick, (we are in the heart of this cycle).

The 18z gfs ensembles had a lot of rain members. One even tracked the low into Chicago

more accurate representation of model

Here you go guys I've seen these maps verify the best since they started coming out... The temps are too marginal for good snowstorm.

It's warming in the central-subsurface a little bit again. A +3c pool isn't that much of a degradation off its highs. TAO/Triton is probably the best site to frequent for now time updates of the subsurface.

Since 1948, The MAM ONI to SON ONI has gone >+1.1 19 times (this is the 20th time). I had previously thought there was a strong tendency for ENSO-state to reverse the next year, but you guys way earlier in the thread showed that ENSO is probably more of a 1+ year continuum, albeit seasonal things like typical late-Winter weakening. Of those 19 events, 8/19 (42%) saw the same ENSO state the following year [+14 months NDJ ONI], 6/19 (32%) were Neutral, and 5/19 (26%) reversed to the opposite ENSO state.

Hello, Thanks. I have been observing weather models almost daily since 2016, and I have found them to underestimate the amount of surface-layer warmth of a -PNA pattern more times than not. If you look at a historical composite of DCA or BWI snowstorms, the strongest feature with a 50/50 low is a GOA/Aleutian island trough. On the models we have that needed trough digging into the West Coast US, instead. Here is a 500mb correlation map with January N. Pacific: https://ibb.co/sJPTkdB https://ibb.co/10d2BGN As you can see, that N. Pacific region posts a +0.53 500mb correlation over DCA/BWI at that time. Here is the 500mb map of 1 day before the storm moves NE. The cold air is pretty cutoff. https://ibb.co/tsF0xLh In my experience, places along I-95 do not do well in these setups because the surface temperature ends up reaching 35-36 degrees. I know we are getting closer to where the entire N. Hemisphere pattern is of less concern, but it is still 5-6 days away, which I find is still valid for a trend away from snowstorm (I-95). I'm just saying this same scenario has happened that way 9/10x recently, so watch for the same model error/adjustment. I would say mostly rain to <1" for Balt/DC.

A few days ago there wasn't a primary low in Kentucky. You guys can say it's trending better but PSU actually posted something good about where the thermal boundary is. I think in future trend, the cold air may get cutoff. It would be different if there was a low pressure in the N. Pacific ocean, and for snowstorms in the Mid Atlantic, that is a major piece. I've seen this pattern set up a lot over the last few Winters, and we are still far ways out (5-6 days), and they almost always trend warmer to verification. Over the PNA/GOA region, especially lately, you need a Low , not a High. It has downstream effects not completely estimated in the model at this range (5-6 days) from what I've seen.

Let's see how it trends in the coming days, as it stands now the GFS is very close to a total miss for I-95.

You guys should know what to look at in trend. There is a reason the NWS identifies index regions as special in their analysis, because these often don't fluctuate as much, and dictate future model trends. You would think the model would be updated by now but it's not

The surface is pretty warm. I doubt I-95 sees accumulating snowfall, but models are holding on

It seems to be like an extended warm front https://ibb.co/Mck2C4B And do you know what else, it's going to warm up after the storm because of what's coming in from the Pacific

Really just hard to hit one blank when coming off of 7 years of very below average. We found that ENSO is a continuum vs something that reverses.

The EPS showed us getting snow a lot last year. I think they had a few long range patterns with +PNA and -EPO but it might be because they are based on '91-20 normals. I'm sorry for going against the majority, but I don't think the EPS is that great. I think its idea comes solely from demand (good ECMWF model).